Best Bears-Eagles Wild Card Props: Don’t Pass on Tarik Cohen’s Receiving Role
James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bears running back Tarik Cohen (29).
- There are three player props offering betting value in the late game on Sunday's Wild Card slate.
- This piece will focus on Bears RB Tarik Cohen, Eagles TE Zach Ertz and Eagles WR Golden Tate.
The Eagles and the Bears will put a cap on Wild Card weekend when they meet at Soldier Field, and we’re breaking down the best prop bets.
Unlike the weekend’s other three matchups, these two teams have yet to meet this year, so we don’t have the recent data points from which to draw.
We must also navigate the superb play calling of both coaches — Doug Pederson and Matt Nagy both come from from the Andy Reid School of “spread the love” offensive football, never a fun proposition for prop betting.
We wipe the slate clean for the playoffs after a profitable regular season run:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 225-106 (66%)
- Article picks: 50-27 (65%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 337-230 (59%)
Bears RB Tarik Cohen
Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Cohen is averaging 45.3 receiving yards per game, and there’s nothing in this matchup suggesting he’s in for a down week.
- The Eagles have allowed the second-most targets to opposing running backs, the second-most receptions (6.9/game), and the sixth-most yards (52.8/game)
- They have yielded 25 or more yards to 14 different backs, including the likes of Wayne Gallman (25) and Alfred Blue (26)
With Sean Koerner protecting 42.1 yards for the Swiss Army back, this prop pops as one of the best bets on the board.
I’d play this number to 35.5, and at this line, would be willing to pay the vigorish up to -122.
Eagles TE Zach Ertz
Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
If Ertz eclipses even 43 yards against the Bears on Sunday, he’ll be the first tight end to do it in Chicago all season long.
The Bears have yet to host anyone near as good as Ertz, but the fact remains that every tight end who has walked into Soldier field this season has left broken and mostly yardless.
Accounting for home and away games, tight ends facing the Bears have been held to 40 yards and 4.3 receptions on average, with only George Kittle (74 yards) going over 50 yards.
Meanwhile, Ertz’s volume and production has been inconsistent at best lately — he’s been held under 40 yards in three of his past four. In the second half of the season, he’s been limited to five or fewer receptions in five of eight games.
Sean Koerner is projecting 59.3 yards for Ertz. Playing any number north of 60 is fine, as is paying the juice up to -122.
Eagles WR Golden Tate
Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Eagles clearly envisioned a big role for Tate when they traded for him after Week 8. They tried to get him involved early on, but for whatever reason, it just hasn’t worked out.
After playing on 71%, 60% and 48% of snaps in Weeks 11-13, Tate’s playing time has been scaled back, with snap counts plummeting to 38%, 34%, 35% and 56% over his past four games.
It’s no surprise that his production has also suffered:
- Tate averaged 7.8 targets, 5.3 receptions and 54 yards in that Week 11-13 stretch
- He’s averaging 4.3 targets, 3 receptions and 24 yards in his four most-recent outings
The Bears aren’t as good against wide receivers as their reputation may suggest — ranking just 21st in yards allowed to the position, but with what appears be a limited role, yards will still be at a premium for Tate in a challenging environment.
There’s a good chance this line will move. I’d resist playing the number any lower than than 30, but paying -122 for this number is fine.