Sunday Bundesliga Betting Preview: Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Union Berlin Odds, Pick (May 31)

Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Union Berlin

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After a disappointing draw with Werder Bremen on Wednesday, Borussia Monchengladbach will need to get back on track with three points against Union Berlin on Sunday or they can kiss their chances of playing Champions League football next year goodbye.

Union Berlin are in a precarious spot in the table, just four points above the relegation zone. Any result on Sunday would go a long way in securing a second season in the Bundesliga for Union.

Gladbach

Gladbach has stumbled in their past two games, losing 4-1 at Borussia Park to Leverkusen and drawing against bottom-feeder Werder Bremen.

Die Fohlen have been consistent at Borussia Park this season and boast the third-best expected goals differential at home this season. Additionally, Borussia Monchengladbach have beat up on the bottom of the table, going 7-0-0 with an xG differential of +9.05 in those seven matches.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Gladbach typically set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which typically yields a lot of goals. Die Fohlen's four-pronged attack of Alassane Plea, Breel Embolo, Patrick Herrman and Marcus Thuram create an average of 1.97 xG per 90 minutes and will undoubtedly be a problem for Union Berlin's defense.

Union Berlin

Union Berlin are hanging on for dear life right now in the Bundesliga. Currently sitting in 13th place, Die Eisernen have two losses and a draw and have been outscored, 7-1, since the Bundesliga resumed play.

Die Eisernen have been terrible on the road this season. With only 11 points in 14 matches, Union Berlin have the second-worst road record in the Bundesliga. They haven't fared well against the top of the table, either. Union have yet to record a point and have been outscored, 22-4, in eight away matches against the top-10 teams in the Bundesliga.

Previous Meeting 

Union Berlin won the previous meeting, 2-0, at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. The expected goals report shows that the scoreline should have been closer to a 1-1 draw. Gladbach outshot Union Berlin, 13 to 11. and held 62.8% of the possession in that match.

Look for Gladbach to take adavantage of their chances and high amount of possession this time around.

Analysis

Gladbach is by far the better side in this match. Union Berlin is going to sit back in their 3-4-2-1 formation and look to hit Die Fohlen on the counter.

I think once Gladbach breaks the deadlock they will have no problem piling on the goals. Based on my model I have the expected goals at:

• Borussia Monchengladbach: 2.47 xG
• Union Berlin: 0.89 xG

Given the short odds on Gladbach -1, I have no issue backing Die Fohlen to win this game by multiple goals.

The Bet: Gladbach -1 (-124)

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