MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions for Friday: 3 Best Bets, Including Mariners vs. Yankees & Rangers vs. Athletics (August 6)
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Oakland’s Matt Olson and Josh Harrison.
- There are 14 games under the lights in Major League Baseball on Friday.
- Our analysts have found an edge on three of them.
- Here are our best bets from Friday's MLB slate.
The weekend is upon us, with a full slate of baseball games beginning with White Sox-Cubs in the afternoon.
The evening is jam-packed, and our analyst have found angles on three games, including Rays vs. Orioles, Mariners vs. Yankees and Rangers vs. Athletics.
Here are our three best bets from Friday's Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Rays vs. Orioles
DJ James: In this battle of the American League East, the Tampa Bay Rays would seemingly be the heavy favorite. At -150, there are some variables to consider while playing their division foe in the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles have a decent, up-and-coming lineup, but can they compete with the Rays?
The Orioles have a 110 wRC+ as a team against lefties this year. This ranks fourth in all of Major League Baseball. The Rays are at 92, and facing John Means is a relatively daunting task, even if the Orioles' rotation is mostly lacking. Pedro Severino has been one of the notable names for the Orioles the last month against lefties. He has a 14.8% walk rate and an insane 234 wRC+ since July. Ramón Urías, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan Mountcastle also have anchored the lineup as of late against that side of the mound.
Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, and Brandon Lowe have led the way for the Rays in the same timeframe against left-handers, but given how both teams have comparable matchups while battling southpaws, Tampa does not get an advantage here.
The Rays obviously have the advantage among the bullpens, but Paul Fry, Cole Sulser, and César Valdez have been a solid trio for Baltimore. With Means on the hill, he will more than likely be able to go at least five or six innings and hand it to their best relief weapons.
Given how Means only walks 4.4% of hitters, he will be able to battle his way to a reasonable start. The Orioles are great value at +128, so take them down to +110.
Mariners vs. Yankees
Brad Cunningham: Marco Gonzales has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this season, posting a 7.15 xERA, and he will be taking his staggering 2.03 HR/9 to the hitter-friendly venue of Yankee Stadium to take on one of the most powerful lineups in baseball. The Yankees have been absolutely crushing left-handed pitching, as they are second in the league with a .338 wOBA and 115 wRC+.
New York will be going with a bullpen game tonight as Wandy Peralta will get things going, which is a benefit to the Yankees since they have one of the best bullpens in baseball, ranking inside the top five in xFIP, BB/9 rate, and Hard Hit% allowed. The Mariners' lineup is incredibly home run dependent and ranks in the bottom five of MLB in wOBA.
I have the Yankees projected at -235, so I think there is plenty of value on them at -166 and would play it up to -197.
Rangers vs. Athletics
Mike Ianniello: Chris Bassitt has been very good this season and Mike Foltynewicz has been very bad. Bassitt is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA this year. He has allowed a .279 wOBA and just a 32.8 HardHit%. He throws a great mix of six pitches, with five of them having a strong negative run value.
Bassitt has faced Texas three times already and has dominated them. He is 3-0 and has tossed seven innings in each start. He has an 0.86 ERA against the Rangers and has allowed just two runs and 12 hits in 21 innings.
Foltynewicz is 2-10 this season with a 6.00 ERA. He has allowed a .376 wOBA and 45.1 Hard Hit%. He ranks in the bottom 15% of the league in xERA, xBA, xwOBA, Hard Hit% and K%. In his three starts against Oakland, Foltynewicz has allowed seven runs and 15 hits in 19 1/3 innings. The A’s have hit five home runs off him this season.
Situationally, this is a great spot for the Athletics. The Rangers are playing for the eighth straight day after losing their third game in a row at home Thursday and flying from Texas to Oakland.
The A’s have been at home all week and had a day off Thursday for the second time in four days. Oakland is 11-4 following an off day and has a big advantage over Texas on the mound and at the plate on Friday. They should have no problem with the Rangers and I am comfortable laying the run line price at -122 and would play it to -130.
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