UFC 295 Odds, Picks, Projections: Our Best Bets for Prochazka vs. Pereira, More (Saturday, November 11)
Yong Teck Lim/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight Jiri Prochazka of Czech Republic
Check out our UFC 295 best bets and predictions for the Saturday pay-per-view event in New York City.
UFC 295: Prochezka vs. Pereira takes place at Madison Square Garden. Following the preliminary card on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET), the UFC 295 main card is available on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET ($79.99).
UFC 295 features 13 bouts in all, including title fights of Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira and Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall on the top of the fight card. As a result, betting opportunities are plentiful for the major pay-per-view event.
So where should be looking to place your UFC 295 bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from DraftKings as of Saturday.
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Moneyline Projections
Prop Projections
Sean Zerillo: Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
I projected Jared Gordon closer to -250 in his matchup with Mark Madsen, and the Queens native is my favorite bet on Saturday's card (up to -235).
While Madsen has a four-inch reach advantage and is the more credentialed wrestler, Gordon is all wrong for him, stylistically.
Madsen may land takedowns early, but Gordon is the superior grappler and jiu-jitsu player once the fight hits the mat, and he should be able to scramble up from those positions or potentially hit reversals and put Madsen on his back.
Gordon's American wrestling style works better for MMA than Madsen's Greco-Roman and upper-body takedowns, and he's also the superior striker once he figures out how to navigate the reach discrepancy.
Most importantly, Gordon is four years younger and has the better gas tank in this matchup; Madsen should do his best work early, but once Gordon settles into the fight, denies a takedown, and finds the range with his left hook, the momentum should fully swing in his direction.
As Madsen's effectiveness wanes, Gordon should win the second and third rounds at increasingly higher percentages, which should only help him secure the victory.
The Pick: Jared Gordon (-210 at Caesars)
Billy Ward: Tabatha Ricci vs. Loopy Godinez
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET
“Baby Shark” – Tabatha Ricci – is 9-1 as a pro fighter with her lone loss coming on short notice to flyweight contender Manon Fiorot.
Ricci would probably be best suited to fight at atomweight if the class existed in the UFC, so dropping her UFC debut to a top-ranked 125-pound fighter is more than understandable.
At UFC 295, she takes on Lupita Godinez, a fellow undersized strawweight who could likely make 105 pounds. Point being that Ricci isn’t in danger of being pushed around in this fight.
Godinez is primarily a wrestler who’s at her best when controlling fights from the top. However, that’s a dangerous game to play against Ricci. The Brazilian has been grappling since she was a toddler with black belts in jiu-jitsu and judo.
That makes taking down Ricci both a difficult task and a dangerous one. Ricci is excellent in all positions on the ground. She’s been taken down just twice in six UFC fights, and she surrendered just 65 seconds of ground control time (40 of those against Fiorot) following the takedowns.
I believe Godinez is favored here because of a perceived striking edge for “Loopy.” That’s being taken as a given, but it might not be the case here.
Ricci has the only knockout victory of the pair, and she's shown much better striking in recent fights. She’s struggled at times at range, but that’s largely due to fighting exclusively opponents with a reach edge – which Godinez doesn’t have.
On top of all the stylistic reasons to back Ricci here, this fight also fits how I like to bet in general. It’s highly likely to go to a decision with the longest stoppage odds on the card. In those cases, it’s almost always better to be holding the underdog ticket in what should be a close fight.
I went against the principal last week in betting on Denise Gomes and paid for it, a mistake I won’t make again (until I forget everything I just said).
The best line on Ricci is +150 at Caesars, but I’m more than fine with the +135 to +140 lines too. I’d take this bet down to +110.
The Pick: Tabatha Ricci (+150 at Caesars)
Dann Stupp: Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET
The UFC 295 main card kicks off with an intriguing featherweight bout of Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini, and the current odds suggest this should be a close matchup.
Listed as a near pick'em, Lopes opened as a small underdog, but the odds have tightened up as fight night approaches and bettors start to hit the Lopes side of things.
Still, I think value remains on Lopes.
However, this is anything but a sure thing. As my colleague Billy Ward discussed in his Lopes vs. Sabatini prediction earlier this week, Sabatini can be a savage on the ground, and he's got the cardio and durability to be game in any 15-minute fight (and arguably 25-minute fights too).
However, I think Lopes can not only escape takedowns and repeatedly work his way to his feet (he showed himself well on the mat in that short-notice loss to Movsar Evloev as a huge underdog), but he can also make Sabatini pay during those takedown attempts.
Lopes isn't the most technical striker, but he's arguably one of the division's most effective when he lands cleanly. And I think he's going to find his openings for those big shots – sooner rather than later in the fight.
However, I'm still more comfortable going with a straight moneyline play as my primary bet. If it does go to decision – and FanDuel is paying +150 for the unlikely possibility – I think Sabatini probably wins it. But I could also see Lopes doing enough damage early in the bout to carry him to a decision victory.
I'm also going to sprinkle on Lopes by KO at juicy +475 odds. However, my primary play and my UFC 295 best bet is going to be a straight-up moneyline wager on Lopes at even money (+100), which is available at many sportsbooks. And I'm happy to take that bet down to -120.
The Pick: Diego Lopes (+100 at Betway)
Tony Sartori: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:55 p.m. ET
The vacant light heavyweight title is on the line at UFC 295 as Jiri Prochazka takes on Alex Pereira in a main event that has fight-of-the-year potential.
Both guys undoubtedly carry knockout power, but I think there are more avenues to victory for Prochazka than Pereira. First, Prochazka nearly went the distance in a five-round bout for the 205-pound title in his instant classic against Glover Teixeira in June 2022.
Pereira has never gone to championship rounds in the light heavyweight division, and I think Prochazka's gas tank has a better chance of holding up in the later rounds. Secondly, while both guys are among the most powerful strikers in the world, I trust Prochazka's chin more than Pereira's.
We saw Israel Adesanya knock out Pereira at 185 pounds, and while Izzy is a technical master on the feet, he does not carry the craziest amount of power, and certainly not as much as Jiri. On the other hand, Prochazka has never been knocked down in the UFC and has not been knocked out in nearly eight years.
Finally, Prochazka will have the advantage on the mat, though I highly doubt hardly any of this fight will take place there. Both guys prefer to stand and bang, but Prochazka's muay Thai background will benefit him more in the clinch, and he has shown more in the grappling department than Pereira has at the UFC level.
The one argument I like from Pereira backers is that his training with Teixeira will help him greatly in this fight – and I completely agree. But will that offset the fact that Prochazka is the more well-rounded fighter with more experience in 205-pound title fights? I don't think it will.
The Pick: Jiri Prochazka (+110 at PointsBet)
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