UFC 295 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini: Clear Value Side of Main-Card Opener (Saturday, November 11)

Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini Odds

The UFC 295 pay-per-view main card is light on name recognition outside of the two title fights, but it's heavy on intriguing matchups.

That includes the opening bout of Saturday's five-fight UFC 295 main card, so we'll take at the Pat Sabatini vs. Diego Lopes odds and prediction.

Sabatini, a Renzo Gracie Philly product, is 5-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming in a fairly surprising flash knockout to Damon Jackson. He's been fairly dominant outside of that stumble, thanks in part to a jiu-jitsu black belt under Renzo/Daniel Gracie on top of his collegiate wrestling experience.

Lopes is no slouch on the mats, though. He broke into the UFC as a short-notice fill-in to fight Mosvar Evloev, and he nearly submitted the undefeated Russian in a Fight of the Night performance. Not only is he a decorated black belt, but he's also the jiu-jitsu coach to UFC standouts Alexa Grasso and Irene Aldana.

For fans of high-level grappling, this one just might be your Fight of the Night. With fairly close odds throughout the industry, it's also one that could go either way. Let's get into the details below and find some Sabatini vs. Lopes betting value.

Tale of the Tape

The Renzo Gracie Philly camp burst onto the scene as a major source of UFC talent shortly following the pandemic. In addition to Sabatini, Andre Petroski and Jeremiah Wells made their promotional debuts that year, joining Sean Brady, who's been with the promotion since 2019.

All four fighters have a remarkably similar style. They throw heavy shots on the feet as a means to close the distance before using stifling top pressure to dominate fights on the mat. What's most impressive is how well-adapted their style of jiu-jitsu is for MMA. They can all wrestle, and none looks to "play jiu-jitsu" from his back.

Sabatini is no exception, and he has a top game that looks like something out of an instructional DVD: Close the distance, secure the takedown, pass the legs, keep the pressure.

He's methodical and systematic, and he rarely sacrifices position to chase submissions. He's probably left a few finishes on the table in his career that way, but it's a reliable way to win minutes and rounds.

He also might be the best pure wrestler of the camp with a diverse range of takedowns in his arsenal. Just in his three most recent fights, I spotted multiple trips from the clinch, a judo throw,  a "tree-top" single leg from outside head position, and an inside single for Sabatini.

His clinch takedowns are probably his strong suit, but he can find options anywhere.

Like his teammates, his striking leaves a bit to be desired. While he's fairly technically sound, he doesn't respond well to being hit, and he has a somewhat suspect chin. We saw the flash knockout by Damon Jackson, but he was also wobbled by Jamaal Emmers – who foolishly pounced on Sabatini on the mat, leading to a submission loss.

This creates a bit of a "Charles Oliveira effect" with which it's hard to finish Sabatini as you're exposing yourself to his A-game if you chase him to the canvas. Of course, that's less of a concern if you're also a high-level BJJ black belt like Lopes.

It's hard to overstate the grappling ability of Lopes, who gave Evloev everything he could handle on just a few days' notice.

Lopes was the 2022 Combat Jiu Jitsu world champion, and he is a constant submission threat in his own right.

Lopes' grappling is very different stylistically than Sabatini's. Lopes might find the occasional takedown, but he's more than happy to work from his back.

We saw that against Evloev, but Lopes also jumped triangle in response to a takedown attempt from Gavin Tucker in his most recent fight. It's a high-risk, high-reward strategy, as it almost certainly leads to lost rounds if the submission doesn't come.

He's also a dynamic striker with an aggressive, wild style. While not the most defensively sound, he's comfortable biting down on his mouthguard and swapping leather in the middle of the octagon if his opponent gives him the opportunity.

Lopes tends to dump the tank energy-wise while throwing big shots, which is why he's just 2-4 in his career in fights that see the judges.

Lopes vs. Sabatini Pick

In a pure jiu-jitsu match, I'd make Lopes a significant favorite here. He's far more aggressive in attacking submissions with a more diverse range of attacks.

Likewise, I'd give Lopes the edge in a pure kickboxing match, largely thanks to his power and chin – both of which are somewhat concerning for Sabatini.

However, this is neither of those things. Sabatini's grappling style looks far better to the judges since it's based around top control and damage more than wild submission attempts from the bottom. He should also have no problem taking down Lopes, who is unlikely to even want to defend takedowns, much less have the ability.

The other edge I see for Sabatini is in the cardio. He's a bit of a slow starter since his relentless wrestling plays far better after making his opponents carry his weight for a round or two.

That also weakens the power coming back at him, which helps cover up his chin – by far his biggest flaw as a fighter. My guess is he steps under for the takedown as soon as Lopes loads up on a strike, which potentially makes that a nonissue.

The other X factor for Sabatini is his experience with this being his seventh UFC fight and just the third for Lopes. Lopes hasn't yet beaten anyone of Sabatini's abilities, including on the Contender Series, where he dropped a decision to Joanderson Brito.

All of which has me more than happy to lay the slight juice on Sabatini. Sabatini's as cheap as -115 on Caesars, but I'm fine with anywhere shy of -130. He's also an excellent live betting option; I could see some big moments for Lopes early on causing the line to swing the other way after round 1.

On the other side, a hedge by Lopes in Round 1 if that comes at big odds – or a parlay of Lopes and some form of unders – is an interesting option. The sharpest way to play this might just be Lopes Round 1 followed by a Sabatini live bet, though I'm confident enough in the American to take his moneyline straight up myself.

The Pick: Pat Sabatini (-115 at Caesars)