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UFC Fight Night Odds, Best Bets: Our Betting Picks for Devin Clark vs. William Knight and Miguel Baeza vs. Andre Fialho (April 16)

UFC Fight Night Odds, Best Bets: Our Betting Picks for Devin Clark vs. William Knight and Miguel Baeza vs. Andre Fialho (April 16) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured (L-R): UFC opponents Miguel Baeza and Andre Fialho.

  • The UFC returns to Las Vegas with a 14-fight card at the Apex.
  • Our UFC analysts Sean Zerillo and Billy Ward are eyeing two moneyline plays and a plus-money prop in tonight's fights.
  • Check out their picks, plus Zerillo's model projections for all 14 fights below.

After three weeks doing a world tour — from the UK to Ohio to Florida — the UFC is back in Las Vegas at the Apex.

This Saturday’s card is deep with 14 total fights and is headlined by a rematch between welterweights Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad, two men who last faced off in 2016.

So where should you be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed two fights and picks on Saturday’s stacked card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo’s projections below using odds from BetMGM.

Moneyline Projections

Prop Projections


Billy Ward: Devin Clark vs. William Knight

Contributor at The Action Network

I’ve been burned by Knight in the past, but I’m going back to the well one more time with his heavyweight bout against Devin Clark.

Both Knight and Clark previously competed at light heavyweight, with Clark actually debuting in the UFC as a middleweight. However, following Knight’s bad 12-pound miss in his last fight (albeit on short notice), he’s making the jump to heavyweight.

Knight has solid power, which should be only improved as a heavyweight. Since his opponent isn’t a true heavyweight, that will be magnified here. While he hasn’t won any professional fights by submission, Knight also has had moderate success competing in high level grappling events.

Clark has the edge in the wrestling department, but has to control Knight for 15 minutes to finish this fight. Knight can end this fight at any moment, and I expect the lack of a weight cut to improve his ability to do so down the stretch if this fight goes long.

The biggest factor though is the size discrepancy. With both men normally fighting at 205 pounds, I expected them both to show up in the 230 pounds or so range. Clark was only 223 pounds, which seems on the small side for a 205-pounder. Knight tipped the scales at a massive 251 pounds though. That’s essentially two weight classes bigger than Clark.

Weight classes exist in MMA for a reason, because size does matter when all else is (even remotely) equal. It’s hard to pass on an underdog (as low as +150 at some books) with an almost 30-pound weight advantage. I’m also interested in Knight inside the distance at +300 (listed at +300 at BetMGM).

That implies Knight’s win condition is only about two-thirds via stoppage. I think it’s considerably higher than that based on his track record, so I’m taking a bite of that apple as well.

The Pick: William Knight ML (+145) | Knight Inside the Distance (+300)

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Sean Zerillo: Miguel Baeza vs. Andre Fialho 

Senior Writer at The Action Network

Miguel Baeza is one of my favorite prospects in the welterweight division. He’s a diverse striker who works behind a heavy leg kick game, with slick grappling skills and the ability to finish opponents on the mat (1.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes).

I suspect Baeza is on the value side here after blowing a lead in his two most recent bouts. After controlling the first eight minutes of action, Baeza lost a narrow decision to Santiago Ponzinibbio – in one of 2021’s best fights last June. Ponzinibbio took over down the stretch, winning (most importantly) the final two minutes of the second frame and the third round.

More recently, Baeza sustained a knockout loss to one of the hardest hitters in the sport — Khaos Williams — right as he was coming on strong late. Williams seemed to be one or two leg kicks away from being unable to stand before closing his eyes, finding an awkward angle, and winging a Hail Mary kill shot. 

THEY CALL HIM KHAOS FOR A REASON 🤯

Khaos Williams (+130 ML) knocks out Miguel Baeza in the third round

(via @ufc ) pic.twitter.com/Hu1IxIdF6W

— Pickswise (@Pickswise) November 13, 2021

Andre Fialho is a similarly powerful welterweight, but he’s a one-dimensional boxer with more limited cardio than Williams.

While I suspect Fialho can find some success early in this fight – particularly in the small cage – Baeza should be able to kick his lead leg apart for the duration. If he can avoid Fialho’s one-dimensional attack and move around the outside, he should eventually pull away on points.

Moreover, Baeza (a Brown Belt in jiu-jitsu) likely has a significant grappling advantage in this fight over Fialho (a purple belt). If Baeza takes this fight to the mat (0.47 takedowns per 15 minutes, 28% accuracy), he might fight a submission in short order.

I favor Baeza in the second and third rounds of a kickboxing match – and would look to live bet Baeza if he falls behind after Round 1.

Still, I’d hope that he tries to grapple and takes the path of least resistance against a pressure boxer. 

I projected Baeza’s moneyline around -215, and you can bet 1.5 units on him, up to -200. 

The Pick: Miguel Baeza (-160) at Caesars

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