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Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas Boxing Odds, Pick, Prediction: How To Back ‘The Truth’ (Saturday, April 16)

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas Boxing Odds, Pick, Prediction: How To Back ‘The Truth’ (Saturday, April 16) article feature image
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Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): Boxers Errol Spence Jr. and Yordenis Ugas.

  • Two Welterweight champions Errol Spence Jr. and Yordenis Ugas will go meet to unify their belts in a Pay-Per-View fight on Showtime Saturday night.
  • Spence, the No. 2 Pound-for-Pound fighter in the world is a -650 favorite (79% implied odds) to come away with all the belts.
  • Raheem Palmer previews the fight and how to get value below.

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Yordenis Ugas Odds

Spence odds
-650
Ugas odds
+350
Over/Under
10.5 (-310/+245)
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Time
Approx. 11 p.m. ET
Channel
Showtime PPV
Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM.

It’s been 17 months since Errol “The Truth” Spence (27-0, 21 KOs) returned from his near fatal car accident to successfully defend his IBF and WBC welterweight titles in an unanimous decision victory against Danny Garcia in 2020.

After pulling out of the highly anticipated bout against Manny Pacquiao and getting surgery to repair retinal tear in his left eye, Spence is finally back and he’s ready to unify the welterweight title against the WBA Champion Yordenis Ugas (27-4, 12 KOs) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Ugas was Spence’s replacement in last summer’s bout against the now retired eight-division world champion and Filipino legend. Although Ugas has been looked over for much of his career, the 35 year old welterweight champion took full advantage of his opportunity, putting together the most impressive performance of his career with a unanimous decision victory over Pacquiao in August.

Despite this, oddsmakers aren’t giving Ugas much of a chance against the Spence, opening the DeSoto, Tx. resident as a -500 favorite against Ugas with an over/under of 10.5.

The stakes are high here, though, with the winner of this fight likely to be in line for a super fight to become the undisputed welterweight champion with Terence Crawford holding the WBO belt.

So is there any betting value on this welterweight showdown? Let’s analyze the fight and find out!

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Can Spence Pull Off Second Comeback?

Errol Spence is No. 2 on The Ring’s Pound-for-Pound list and the No. 2-ranked Welterweight behind Terence Crawford. He arguably has the best resume in the division with wins over Mikey Garcia, Danny Garcia, Shawn Porter, Kell Brook and Chris Algieri.

The southpaw is technically sound, a gifted athlete and an offensive-minded puncher who typically looks to press the action with a high work rate and has the power to stop opposing fighters.

Despite all his physical gifts, Spence comes into this fight with a few question marks, most notably what he has left after his extended layoff post surgery. Although Spence proved he could bounce back in his first fight after his near-fatal car accident with his unanimous decision victory over Garcia in 2020, this is the longest layoff of his career and a retinal tear is not the injury you want as a boxer. Still, if he survived a fatal car accident without skipping a beat, it’s tough to imagine him not overcoming this as well.

Spence has the bad habit blowing up in weight between fights and may have outgrown the welterweight division has he’s recently expressed the desire to move up to super welterweight or even middleweight.

“I been done with this weight,” Errol Spence Jr said to DAZN Boxing   “Once I do what I said I was going to do, get these belts, then move up … I got to fight two more fights at 147, then I’m moving up.”

While Spence could be moving up to further his career, his desire to move up in weight could highlight an issue in the ring. Although Spence has taken the steps to change his diet and stay in great shape recently, as he’s had to cut weight, it’s quite possible he no longer has the pop in the welterweight division that he previously had.

via Gfycat

Spence is a bigger welterweight, but surprisingly he hasn’t stopped anyone in four years — a mandatory IBF title defense and first round KO against the previously unbeaten prospect Carlos Ocampo (22-0, 13 KOs in June 2018. Although Spence did knock Porter down in the 11th round en route to a split decision victory, it remains to be seen if he can stop guys as he did earlier in his career.

Spence is strategic and Ugas is a highly skilled counter puncher with a keen ability to time opposing fighters, so it’s highly unlikely we’ll see Spence sell out to get the knockout here. Spence can be repetitive at times and Ugas has proven that he can deal with explosive fighters with high work rates like Porter and Pacquiao.

Ugas is physically strong and his ability to counter could Spence trouble at certain points of this fight. Still, Spence has a huge advantage in both hand and foot speed as well as power, height and reach.

When you factor in everything, Spence is just a level above Ugas skill wise and many of the issues an older caused Ugas could show up here, in the younger southpaw in Spence. Also, it’s likely that Ugas doesn’t have the power to keep Spence honest as he has just 12 knockouts in his 30 pro fights. He’s simply not a big puncher.

I still expect Ugas to provide a bigger test than Garcia did. Spence should generate more offense, controlling this fight with his jab while hurting him with shots to the body and it is tough to imagine a world where Ugas isn’t outworked despite having some solid moments.

Spence vs. Ugas Pick

Floyd Mayweather Jr. once said, “talented and God gifted are two different things.” That perfectly describes what we’re likely to see in the ring on Saturday night.

Of course, Spence has been involved in multiple situations that could have ended his career — a near fatal car accident and a retinal tear in his left eye — but the unified champions has all the advantages: height, reach, speed, power and skill.

While Ugas’ slickness and counter punching ability should keep this fight competitive, it’s tough to imagine him stopping Spence and with Spence not stopping anyone since 2018, it’s highly unlikely there’s a stoppage on any side.

In boxing, it’s important to recognize there’s an A side and there’s a B side and Spence is the clear A side as the cash cow fighting in home state of Texas, which happens to be notorious for questionable judging.

Outside of a knockout or a purely dominant win from Ugas, Spence likely won’t lose a decision with an undisputed fight between Crawford and Spence looming. This fight is going to card and Spence should win.

The Pick: Errol Spence -135 by Decision (BetMGM)

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