College Football Odds, Picks for Buffalo vs. Miami (OH): The Spread Bet to Make for Tuesday’s MACtion Showdown (November 9)
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Brett Gabbert.
- The Buffalo Bulls take on the Miami (OH) RedHawks in another Tuesday night MACtion contest.
- The Bulls are now without star Jarret Patterson, but they've still put up solid numbers on the ground.
- Action Analytics crunches the numbers and shares his best bet below.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 57 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 57 -110o / -110u | -305 |
Welcome to MACtion Week No. 2. It may be pitch black at 5 p.m. every night, but Tuesday college football is a worthy price to pay.
Tonight, Buffalo travels to Oxford, Ohio, to take on Miami (OH). The RedHawks are looking to avenge a blowout loss last year when the Bulls trounced them, 52-10, in Buffalo.
The good news for the RedHawks: 2020 MAC Offensive Player of the Year Jaret Patterson will not be playing this year, as he now suits up for the Washington Football Team.
Miami needs a win to keep its hopes of winning the MAC East afloat, while Buffalo is playing to hop ahead in the standings. Both teams are 4-5 and looking to improve to .500 to keep a possible postseason bowl bid alive.
For Miami, this would be the third bowl appearance in six seasons under head coach Chuck Martin. If it makes a postseason game, this would easily be the most successful stretch in school history since Big Ben Roethlisberger was the quarterback for the RedHawks in the early 2000s.
However, falling to 4-6 would be a disastrous blow to either team's postseason hopes. With a bowl berth on the line and a national audience, this should be an extremely hard-fought game.
Buffalo Bulls
Buffalo Offense
Patterson may not be suiting up for the Bulls anymore, but junior running back Dylan McDuffie is no slouch. He ranks third in the MAC in rushing yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry with nine touchdowns. They also lead the conference overall with 27 rushing touchdowns total.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, these numbers are not translating to an efficient rushing attack. The Bulls are in the middle of the pack when it comes to EPA/Play (62nd) and Success Rate (55th) on rushing plays. They are not explosive either, ranking 95th nationally.
Their air attack is likewise mediocre, ranking 72nd in EPA/play and 64th in Success Rate on passing plays. This is not because opponents are disrupting plays, as the Bulls rank 16th in Havoc Allowed.
Rather, quarterback Kyle Vantrease has been leading an anemic passing attack. He has thrown for eight touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Despite these statistical shortcomings, Buffalo is second in the MAC in scoring with 33.6 points per game. This offense is due for a regression soon.
Buffalo Defense
While Buffalo's offense is putting up nearly 34 points per game, its defense is allowing 29.
Its explosiveness is particularly concerning, as it ranks in the bottom five at 127th. It's also 112th in EPA/Play allowed and 92nd in Success Rate.
Really, the only thing average about this defense is Havoc, where it ranks 39th. The only thing this Bulls defense has going for it is that the RedHawks offense is just as bad.
Miami RedHawks
Miami (OH) Offense
On the surface, you might think the RedHawks have a prolific offense. After all, uarterback Brett Gabbert is coming off a 492-yard, five-touchdown game against Ohio and a more modest 207-yard, two-touchdown game against Ball State.
However, I'm here to tell you that this offense is just as mediocre as Buffalo's.
The RedHawks rank 108th in Success Rate, 102nd in Finishing Drives and 77th in EPA/Play. The bright side? They are exceptional at not allowing defenses to cause chaos, as they rank eighth in Havoc Allowed.
This should be an interesting matchup, though, as they should be able to rip off a couple of big gains against a Buffalo defense that is 127th in explosiveness.
Despite not being exceptional at generating explosive plays, Miami is slightly above average nationally, ranking 46th in offensive explosiveness.
Miami (OH) Defense
For the most part, the RedHawks defense is just slightly below average. They rank 74th in Success Rate, 74th in explosiveness, and 94th in EPA/Play.
However, one area of severe concern for RedHawks is in Defensive Finishing Drives. They are allowing 4.3 points every time an opponent crosses their 40-yard line. This ranks 110th in the country.
This is an interesting matchup due to the fact that outside of Buffalo's defensive explosiveness and Miami's Defensive Finishing Drives, this is a strength-on-strength game.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Buffalo and Miami (OH) match up statistically:
Buffalo Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 66 | 112 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 103 | 44 | |
| Big Play | 84 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 17 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 118 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 96 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 79 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 100 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 124 | 5 | |
| Big Play | 42 | 103 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 41 | |
| Finishing Drives | 109 | 61 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 68 | 46 |
| Coverage | 128 | 120 |
| Middle 8 | 19 | 57 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 113 | 90 |
| Plays per Minute | 20 | 84 |
| Rush Rate | 60.% (32) | 50.3% (98) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Betting Pick
Based on the metrics provided above, I would anticipate this game being much closer than the spread indicates — probably closer to a field goal.
Our power ratings agree with me, as they have Miami (OH) as a four-point favorite in this matchup. I'm riding with the dogs.
Pick: Buffalo +7
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