College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads for Week 14

College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads for Week 14 article feature image
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Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Javon Baker (5) of the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Week 14 College Football Bowl Projections

Entering the final weekend, there are 83 bowl-eligible teams for 82 bowl spots. The good news: no teams with losing records will be needed to fill any bowls. The bad news: one 6-6 bowl-eligible Group of Five team will not play in a bowl.

So, who will? As far as the College Football Playoff, I’m projecting — and this is dangerous — that the favorites will win their conference title games: Georgia over Alabama (SEC), Oklahoma State over Baylor (Big 12), Michigan over Iowa (Big Ten) and Cincinnati over Houston (AAC).

If that happens, I’m projecting the College Football Playoff semifinals will feature No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl and No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

There are obviously dozens (hundreds?) of chaos scenarios besides what I listed above, but I’m going with the most likely outcome.

In that case, rounding out the New Year’s Six bowls would be: Utah vs. Ohio State (Rose), Alabama vs. Baylor (Sugar), Ole Miss vs. Pitt (Peach) and Michigan State vs. Notre Dame (Fiesta).

The College Football Playoff pairings will be announced on Sunday along with the remaining bowl matchups, although three teams have already officially accepted bids: East Carolina to the Military and Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl.

Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

Updated 2021 College Football Betting Power Ratings

Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions

CFP National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Michigan
Action Spread: Georgia -12

CFP Semifinals

Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Cincinnati
Action Spread: Georgia -17

Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Oklahoma State
Action Spread: Michigan -4.5

New Year’s Six Bowls

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Baylor vs. Alabama
Action Spread: Alabama -13.5

Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: Ohio State vs. Utah
Action Spread: Ohio State -9

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Michigan State
Action Spread: Notre Dame -6.5

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Ole Miss vs. Pitt
Action Spread: Ole Miss -1.5


Other Bowls

Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: Iowa State vs. Mississippi State
Action Spread: Iowa State -4.5

Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Iowa vs. Kentucky
Action Spread: Kentucky -0.5

Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Wisconsin vs. Tennessee
Action Spread: Wisconsin -2.5

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Kent State vs. Air Force
Action Spread: Air Force -11

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: Clemson vs. Texas A&M
Action Spread: Texas A&M -1

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Miami vs. Oregon State
Action Spread: Miami -2

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Minnesota vs. Arkansas
Action Spread: Arkansas -5.5

Duke’s Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: North Carolina vs. South Carolina
Action Spread: North Carolina -11.5

Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Penn State vs. UCLA
Action Spread: Penn State -2

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Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: Oklahoma vs. Oregon
Action Spread: Oregon -0.5

Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: NC State vs. Kansas State
Action Spread: NC State -6

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Virginia vs. Maryland
Action Spread: Virginia -6

Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: Boston College vs. Houston
Action Spread: Houston -8

SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Action Spread: Arizona State -0.5

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Purdue vs. West Virginia
Action Spread: Purdue -1.5

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: Texas Tech vs. Missouri
Action Spread: Texas Tech -3

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: Utah State vs. Louisville
Action Spread: Louisville -10.5

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: Auburn vs. SMU
Action Spread: Auburn -8

Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina
Action Spread: Virginia Tech -4

Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Old Dominion vs. Western Michigan
Action Spread: Western Michigan -3

Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: Georgia State vs. Ball State
Action Spread: Georgia State -9

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Nevada vs. Memphis
Action Spread: Nevada -2.5

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Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Florida vs. UCF
Action Spread: Florida -5.5

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: Army vs. Marshall
Action Spread: Marshall -1

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: Tulsa vs. North Texas
Action Spread: Tulsa -8.5

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Fresno State
Action Spread: Fresno State -14

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -9

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: UTSA vs. Louisiana
Action Spread: Louisiana -1.5

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: Washington State vs. San Diego State
Action Spread: Washington State -3.5

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: BYU vs. LSU
Action Spread: BYU -1

LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: Appalachian State vs. Wyoming
Action Spread: Appalachian State -12

New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: Boise State vs. UTEP
Action Spread: Boise State -16.5

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Liberty
Action Spread: Western Kentucky -7.5

Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: UAB vs. Northern Illinois
Action Spread: UAB -11

Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo
Action Spread: Toledo -12

Teams highlighted and in bold have officially accepted bowl bids.

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl if it does not qualify for College Football Playoff.

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