National Championship Odds: Irish Back On the Rise After Week 5

Oct 01, 2018 3:31 PM EDT
  • Westgate has updated its odds to win the College Football Playoff following Week 5.
  • Notre Dame is the biggest riser of the week, and Stanford is predictably the biggest faller.

Those with Clemson futures enjoyed a healthy sweat on Saturday as the Tigers narrowly escaped with a win over Syracuse. With Ohio State also pulling off a win at Penn State, the top spots on the college football national championship odds list didn’t change much.

Slightly further down the list are a few notable changes. Notre Dame and Florida both saw considerable odds jumps, while Stanford and Penn State are among the week’s biggest fallers.

Here’s where the odds stand at Westgate after Week 5.

Biggest Risers

Notre Dame: +2500 to +1200 (3.85% to 7.69% implied probability)

Week 5 vs. Stanford: Won 38-17

Notre Dame knocked off one of the toughest tests on its schedule with ease on Saturday. Of its remaining opponents, only Virginia Tech is currently ranked in the top 25 (No. 24).

Florida: +50000 to +20000 (0.2% to 0.5% implied probability)

Week 5 @ Mississippi State: Won 13-6

Following its Week 2 loss to Kentucky, Florida has been rolling. The Gators have beaten Colorado State, Tennessee and Mississippi State by a combined score of 108-37 over the past three weeks.

Oregon: +50000 to +20000 (0.2% to 0.5% implied probability)

Week 5 @ Cal: Won 42-24

The Ducks’ title odds fell significantly after their brutal loss to Stanford last week. Their win at Cal over the weekend, however, has moved them closer to where they stood before the Stanford loss.

Biggest Fallers

Stanford: +4000 to +10000 (2.44% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 5 @ Notre Dame: Won 38-17

Stanford’s chances at a playoff appearance got a lot slimmer after a blowout loss in South Bend. The Cardinal fell from No. 7 to No. 14 in the latest AP Poll, and their odds to win the national title were cut by more than half.

Penn State: +3000 to +5000 (3.23% to 1.96% implied probability)

Week 5 vs. Ohio State: Lost 27-26

Even though the Nittany Lions outperformed expectations by covering the spread on Saturday night, their odds to win the national championship took a hit as a result of the loss.

They’ve got only one loss, but they still have meetings with Michigan State, Michigan and Wisconsin on their schedule.

Utah: +50000 to +200000 (0.2% to 0.05% implied probability)

Week 5 @ Washington State: Lost 28-24

Oddsmakers weren’t giving the Utes much of a chance to win the national title before their loss to Washington State over the weekend. Now with two losses, Utah is looking at an essentially impossible road to the playoff.

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue
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