College Football Sharp Betting Report: Pros Hit WVU vs. Kansas, Utah State vs. San Diego State
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jordan Love
- Sharp action is hitting five games on Saturday's college football slate, starting with Michigan State vs. Northwestern (12 p.m. ET, ABC).
- The Action Network's tools reveal how the pros are playing the loaded schedule.
Finally we have a college football slate that should shake things up as far as rankings, playoff chances and national title odds go. Among the highlights Saturday: Wisconsin hosts Michigan, Auburn travels to College Station and Georgia blows out Notre Dame.
This sharp report will feature none of those games.
What can I tell you? Sharps couldn’t care less about which games they’re betting — they’re strictly looking for value. And on Saturday, they’ve targeted five matchups, however exciting you may find them:
- Michigan State vs. Northwestern (12 p.m. ET)
- UCF vs. Pitt (3:30 p.m. ET)
- Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio State (3:30 p.m. ET)
- West Virginia vs. Kansas (4:30 p.m. ET)
- Utah State vs. San Diego State (10:30 p.m. ET)
CFB Sharp Betting Report
All odds as of Friday at 4 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Michigan State @ Northwestern
12 p.m. ET | ABC
In what’s expected to be a very low-scoring game (the total now sits at 37), only 23% of bettors like Michigan State’s chances to cover a spread of more than a touchdown. The logic is sound, as fewer overall points means less of a chance for one team to break away.
Sharps, however, aren’t buying it.
Sparty actual opened inside of a touchdown at -6.5, but thanks to some heavy sharp action (and no thanks to the public, obviously), the line has shot up to -9.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals — which track and record market moves caused by professional money — have triggered three sharp moves on the Spartans, two of which came after the line had passed through the key number of seven (-8 and -8.5).
Sharp angle: Michigan State (moved from -6.5 to -9)
UCF @ Pitt
3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Comparing opening and current lines is a great starting point when it comes to reading the betting market. In some cases, however, it doesn’t tell the whole story. This is one of those cases.
After opening at -10, Central Florida is now listed -11 at PointsBet. At first glance, that wouldn’t appear significant, especially given the 70% of bets and 65% of money that has landed on UCF.
This line, however, made it all the way to two touchdowns (-14) before being bet back … by sharps.
Since reaching that high-water mark on Monday, Pitt has triggered seven Sports Insights Bet Signals. The lowest number to be hit thus far has been +12, which leaves us looking at the currently offered +11.
Sharp angle: Pitt (moved from +14 to +11)
Miami (Ohio) @ Ohio State
3:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
Ho hum. Another sharp vs. public disagreement on an Ohio State over/under.
This is on pace to be the 161st Ohio State game of the 173 in our Bet Labs database to see more than 50% of bettors on the over. In fairness, this one isn’t quite as popular as most others, attracting just a 55% majority.
Still, as is often the case, sharps see this number as a bit inflated, as evidenced by six SI Bet Signals on the under ranging from the opening number of 60.5 down to 57.
Like most of the market, PointsBet now lists this game at 56.5.
Also helping pull this number down has been the 78% of money hitting the under despite its minority of actual bets. Not only does that create a monetary liability, but it reveals how the bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are playing the total.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 60.5 to 56.5)
West Virginia @ Kansas
4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+
While the first two sharp plays came against the public, this one has actually united pro and public bettors.
Two-thirds of the bets on this Big 12 total have hit the under (that’s a sentence you don’t hear every day). Those bets have been of the bigger variety too, as they’ve generated 83% of actual money being wagered.
Confirming that they’ve also been of the sharper variety, SI Bet Signals have triggered five sharp moves on the under at totals ranging from 54.5 down to 50. The market is now offering a consensus 48.5.
As for the reason behind the heavily-backed under, look no further than the weather forecast. Winds of 15-18 mph are expected throughout the game, which has had a historically positive impact on the under’s win rate.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 54.5 to 48.5)
Utah State @ San Diego State
10:30 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network
Remember what I said about not living and dying by the comparison between opening and current lines?
Utah State has gone from -2.5 to -4, but it’s been San Diego State that’s drawn eight Bet Signals to the Aggies’ two. Why? Because sharps are betting the number, not the team.
They didn’t see value on the Aztecs getting less than a field goal, but when the line ballooned to the 4.5 range, it became time to strike.
The most recent sharp move even came at +4 — which is still widely available — causing a few books to start reverting back to +3.5. It certainly wouldn’t come as a shock to see the rest of the market head in that direction before kickoff.
Sharp angle: San Diego State (moved from +4.5 to +4)