CFB Week 4 Weather: Consider the ‘Windy Under’ in West Virginia vs. Kansas?

CFB Week 4 Weather: Consider the ‘Windy Under’ in West Virginia vs. Kansas? article feature image
Credit:

Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Leddie Brown

  • West Virignia-Kansas is expected to feature high winds this weekend. Does that mean you should be the under?
  • Using The Action PRO System "Windy Unders," we've studied how windy conditions will affect a series of college games this weekend.

Finally, the windy weekend I’ve been waiting for is finally here! This Saturday’s college football slate is littered with windy games like the streets of New York City are littered with … litter.

Using an Action Pro System — powered by Bet Labs — we’re able to see how to best tackle these blustery affairs.

Michigan at Wisconsin

12 p.m. ET Saturday

It’s rivalry time! The No. 11 Wolverines head to Madison to face the No. 13 Badgers in a highly anticipated matinee. The nationally broadcasted game is currently seeing the most action of any matchup this weekend, but I reckon it’ll eventually be overtaken by Notre Dame-Georgia.

With 17 mph winds expected at Camp Randall Stadium, this game matches our Pro System “Windy Unders.”

It’s really quite simple. If it’s windy outside (13+ mph to be precise), take the under! Pretty easy, right?

This total has seen some interesting line movement. After opening at 47, the line fell to 42.5 and has since gone back up to 44.5. With the forecast more secured than it was earlier in the week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the number close below the current number.

West Virginia at Kansas

4:30 p.m. ET Saturday

An even windier game will occur in Kansas, where the Mountaineers will be visiting the Jayhawks. The anemometer will be reading 19 mph for this game, which is likely why the total has dropped a whopping 5.5 points since opening from 54.5 to 49.

Obviously, taking a line that has already moved a ton will hurt your long term win rate, but this Pro System still has a winning record for games with totals that have dropped 5+ points.

The sample size of games decreases as we raise the average wind speed, but games with winds of at least 19 mph have a record of 82-51-4 (61.7%) compared to an even 57% win rate for 13 mph or higher.

More Games

Like I said, the slate is loaded up with windy games all day and night. There are currently a dozen more matches, including Michigan State-Northwestern, that you can unlock by upgrading to PRO today.