Colorado vs. Oregon Odds & Pick: Will Ducks Defense Dominate Again?
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Herbert and Oregon
Colorado vs. Oregon Odds
- Odds: Oregon -21
- Over/Under: 59.5
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- TV: Fox Sports 1
Odds as of Thursday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Oregon has an NFL-caliber quarterback under center, but it’s actually been the Ducks defense that’s carried them. They’re 4-1 to the under so far this season, giving up a total of 22 points in their last four, and face a normally explosive Colorado offense that will be without its best player on Friday.
Can you back Oregon as a big favorite? Our analysts are split on this one.
Market Report for Oregon-Colorado
It’s rare to see a ranked team getting the minority of bets against an unranked opponent, but give public bettors a 3-touchdown spread and they’re going to think twice about laying those points.
That’s what’s happened here, as Colorado (now +21) is drawing 56% of bettors. Even with that support, though, the number has risen from its opener of 20.5 thanks to 75% of actual money landing on the Ducks.
The over has also been a popular landing spot for both bets and dollars, attracting 77% and a whopping 95%, respectively. As a result, this number has moved up from 57 to 59. — Danny Donahue
Collin: First Real Test for Oregon Defense
The Oregon offense had one of the worst first halves of football against Cal in Week 6. The Ducks drive log read interception, fumble, fumble, punt and missed field goal.
But they went to the locker room with no points and trailing a Cal team that had a backup quarterback under center, and shut out the Bears in the second half while putting up 17 of their own.
The Ducks defense has been stellar in 2019 under new coordinator Andy Avalos, limiting Cal to just 256 total yards with two interceptions. Oregon now ranks eighth in defensive havoc and fifth in yards per play allowed.
Laviska Shenault continues to be sidelined with an injury, taking away the best offensive weapon for Colorado. Quarterback Steven Montez still found six different receivers for multiple receptions against Arizona, specifically Tony Brown for 141 yards on 10 catches. Colorado continues to have marginal success through the air, but one of the highest rates of explosive passing in the Pac-12.
Oregon’s defense is posting the best success rate numbers against the run and pass, allowing less than 30% of passing plays to grade successful.
But this will be the toughest task for the Oregon defense as Auburn, Stanford, Cal and Nevada have offenses outside the top 50.
Our Action Network projections make the Ducks -16, giving value to the current +20.5 and +21 throughout the market.
There should be steam on the Ducks heading into this game. Wait for a 21 to take Colorado, and look for the Ducks defense to get their first test. — Collin Wilson
Collin’s Pick: Colorado +20.5 or better
Stuckey: Why I Like the Ducks
I have to disagree with Collin here and we might have another Friday night head-to-head between us.
The Oregon defense is absolutely rolling. New coordinator Andy Avalos has this unit playing at a level we are not used to seeing in the Pac-12.
The Ducks have allowed one touchdown in four games since their opener against Auburn. They’re allowing 2.9 yards per rush (top 20) and 5.0 yards per pass (top 5).
And they’re one of only six teams to allow fewer than 4.0 yards per play overall, joining Clemson, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State and Missouri in that exclusive club.
This also sets up as a huge day for Oregon’s passing offense, which has been somewhat held back so far this season, primarily due to the fact that the defense has played so well.
Herbert finally got two of his primary receivers back last week in Brenden Schooler and Mycah Pittman, which you should start to see.
They didn’t do much last week but it was their first game back and against an excellent Cal defense. That will not be the case this week; in fact, quite the opposite.
While Oregon is only allowing 3.9 yards per play, Colorado is almost three full yards higher at 6.8. That’s 122nd in the country. Its 9.5 yards per pass attempt allowed is among the five worst marks in all of college football. Just last week, Arizona threw for over 400 yards last week in a win in Boulder.
Colorado has allowed 23 passes of 20-plus yards (113th in the nation) and it’s one of only five teams in the nation to allow 5 or more completions of at least 50 yards.
This Colorado defense is beyond bad. Even in its season opening 52-31 win over Colorado State, it was out-gained 505-475.
And it’s not all Mel Tucker’s fault. This defense has been decimated by injuries. DL Jalen Sami and safety Mikial Onu (their best player by far in the secondary, who has caused six turnovers) went down against Arizona. That’s after already previously losing three opening day starters on defense.
They even had a guy who was competing for quarterback during camp in at safety against Arizona in a close game. It’s a mess.
And if most of those guys are out this week (in addition to Shenault), Oregon should name it here and I’ll be on the Ducks at anything -21 or better.
The Oregon offense should shred this helpless Colorado defense and the Oregon defense should continue doing what it’s been doing with a very versatile and complex scheme that’s on a roll.
Stuckey’s Pick: Oregon -21 or better