2018 Heisman Odds Watch: Tua Tagovailoa Becomes Odds-On Favorite

2018 Heisman Odds Watch: Tua Tagovailoa Becomes Odds-On Favorite article feature image

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa

  • Tua Tagovailoa is now listed as a -150 favorite to win the 2018 Heisman Trophy.
  • Benny Snell Jr. and Trevor Lawrence also improved their chances this weekend.
  • AJ Dillon, Trace McSorley and Justice Hill all saw their odds get worse.

For the first time this season, the Heisman favorite has a minus sign in front of his odds.

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is, as expected, still the favorite to win the award, and following this weekend’s performance, is listed at -150. A bettor would have to wager $15 to win $10.

Here are the rest of the odds from Westgate.

Table defaults to preseason odds. Click on a date to sort.

Heisman Trophy Odds Risers

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama): +175 to -150 (36.36% to 60% implied probability)

Week 4 vs. Texas A&M: 22-of-30, 387 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 1 rush TD

Tagovailoa took full control of the Heisman race with his performance against A&M this past Saturday. As mentioned, he’s now the odds-on favorite for the first time this season, and his -150 line implies a 60% chance that he’ll win the award.

Benny Snell Jr. (RB, Kentucky): +20000 to +8000 (0.50% to 1.23% implied probability)

Week 4 vs. Mississippi State: 165 yards on 25 attempts, 4 TD

Snell jumped into the Heisman conversation by scoring every Kentucky touchdown on Saturday against then-No. 14 Mississippi State. He’s now the fifth-most likely running back to win the award based on his odds.

Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson): +20000 to +10000 (0.50% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 4 @ Georgia Tech: 13-of-18, 176 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT

Lawrence made the most of his 18 passing attempts on Saturday, completing almost a quarter of them for touchdowns. He’s still a longshot, but his chance at winning the award doubled based on his performance.

Heisman Trophy Odds Fallers

AJ Dillon (RB, Boston College): +1200 to +3000 (7.69% to 3.23% implied probability)

Week 4 @ Purdue: 59 yards on 19 attempts

Purdue did a good job shutting down Dillon on Saturday, allowing only 3.1 yards per rush and a long of only 11 yards.

Trace McSorley (QB, Penn State): +1200 to +2000 (7.69% to 4.76% implied probability)

Week 4 @ Illinois: 12-of-19, 160 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

Penn State put up 63 points on Saturday — usually a good sign for a quarterback — but McSorley didn’t exactly light up the passing stat sheet, throwing for only 160 yards and three of the nine Penn State touchdowns.

Justice Hill (RB, Oklahoma State): +3000 to +10000 (3.23% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 4 vs. Texas Tech: 111 yards on 12 attempts, 1 TD

Hill actually had a pretty good game this weekend, which means his odds drop was probably a result of two things.

First, Oklahoma State lost by 24 points. That never helps. And second, Hill was one of last week’s biggest risers, which means that there’s a good chance that books were trying to take advantage of a public overreaction by setting the line too high, making him susceptible to a line drop this week.