Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds & Pick: Should You Bet Against Dynamic Sooners?
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Grant Calcaterra and Brandon Foster
- Oklahoma vs. Texas odds are settling in ahead of the Red River Showdown (12 p.m. ET, FOX) on Saturday in Dallas.
- Here's how our experts are betting the game.
Oklahoma vs. Texas Odds
- Odds: Oklahoma -10
- Over/Under: 76
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
- Location: Dallas, Texas
Odds as of Saturday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Getting No. 11 Texas with 10.5 points has been too good of an offer for bettors to pass up. Sixty-seven percent of bettors accounting for 64% of money have backed the Longhorns in what should be one of — if not the most — heavily-bet games Saturday.
This spread wasn’t always listed at 10.5, though. Early in the week, books were down in the 9/9.5 range, but respected money on Oklahoma was enough to move this number to 10.5.
This total is the highest of the weekend at 75.5, but 64% of bets and 67% of money have still hit the over. The number hasn’t made much of a move, bouncing between 74.5 and 76 for most of the week. — Danny Donahue
If You Like Trends…
If you’re a trend player, you like Texas here.
- Tom Herman is 13-3 ATS as a dog
- Texas has covered this game in 6 straight years
- Texas is 10-4-1 ATS against OU since 2005, covering by an average of 4.4 PPG
But I think this game comes down to what DC Todd Orlando does on defense with Texas. And I’ve got some ideas. — Stuckey
Can Texas Get Stops?
Texas has to do something to compensate for a porous pass defense, due to a secondary that has been decimated by injuries.
The Longhorn pass defense ranks 126th in passing yards per game and 122nd in passing down sack rate. They’ve also allowed 67 passes of 10-plus yards, which ranks in the bottom 10 nationally.
If they don’t switch something up on Saturday, Oklahoma will chunk its way down the field at will.
I think Texas needs to bring immense pressure, especially from the edge to blow up the read option. Remember that Oklahoma lost a ton of talent along the offensive line from last year.
The offensive line has held up so far but against significantly inferior competition. Plus, the Sooners might be without both starting tackles in Erik Swenson, who started the first four games at LT before sitting out against Kansas, and Adrian Ealy, who started the first three games.
Texas has to take advantage and pressure Jalen Hurts into mistakes. — Stuckey
Can We Trust an Improved Sooners Defense?
On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma has looked better on defense this season, but I’m not sure we can trust our eyes yet as the Sooners haven’t played anybody.
I think Texas will be able to move the ball fairly easily with Sam Ehlinger and his dangerous receiving corps that will now add Collin Johnson to the mix.
Texas leads the nation in third down conversion percentage at 56.58% and has been dynamite inside the red zone.
One other factor to keep in mind is Oklahoma penalties, which have been an issue so far this year. The Sooners are tied with Miami for second most penalty yards per game (91.2). Only Tulsa is worse.
Both offenses should have a ton of success but the total looks about right. From a side perspective, I’d play Texas if I knew it was going to relentlessly bring pressure instead of sitting with 8 back to compensate for the secondary injuries.
Therefore, I will most likely wait to bet this game live based on what I see. — Stuckey
Can Texas Stop the Read-Option?
Plenty of other handicapping content will focus on Jalen Hurts’ raw numbers.
Whether Jalen Hurts is a better passer since his time at Alabama or not, one constant remains — any defense with long, athletic defense ends can take the read option away.
It’s the reason Clemson had so much success in stopping the former Alabama quarterback. Any team with decent defensive ends will keep Oklahoma scoring down.
Jalen Hurts' fake was so smooth 😮 pic.twitter.com/EJ2QATa9pY
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 5, 2019
Texas doesn’t have that. The Longhorns are 98th in sack rate and specifically 122nd on passing downs sack rate. Neither of their ends had an impact against LSU and Joe Burrow, and the same is expected against Jalen Hurts.
It should be worth noting that Oklahoma played without their starting offensive tackles against Kansas, like Stuckey mentioned, and that could be a factor if they remain out.
Although Kansas recorded just a single sack, the read-option from Hurts is what keeps this offense so dynamic. — Collin Wilson
Texas Can’t Expose OU’s Flaw
The biggest weakness of the Sooners so far is allowing explosive runs. Texas Tech, Kansas and UCLA all broke off big plays against Oklahoma, but Texas has not shown an ability for explosive runs.
Keaontay Ingram averages just 4.7 yards per carry and has not had an explosive run since a season long 26 yard rush against Rice in Week 3.
Both teams will have plenty of offensive success with multiple explosive plays.
Both Oklahoma and Texas rank outside the top 100 opponent red zone scoring percentage on defense, leaving no statistical reason to take an under.
Ultimately, the Sooners have the more explosive offense and a much improved defensive secondary.
The Action Network power ratings make this game Oklahoma -10.5, leaving no value in the current market.
Personally, I will be playing this live if the -9.5 does not pop before kickoff, but I will be looking to take the Oklahoma side. — Collin Wilson
Collin’s Pick: Oklahoma -10.5