Texas vs. TCU Odds & Prediction: Longhorns Rightful Favorite After Opening as Underdog

Texas vs. TCU Odds & Prediction: Longhorns Rightful Favorite After Opening as Underdog article feature image

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sam Ehlinger

Texas vs. TCU Odds

  • Spread: Texas -1
  • Over/Under: 57
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX

Odds as of Friday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Bettors may be down on Texas after its narrow win over Kansas, but should they be?

The Longhorns definitely have problems on defense but boast a dynamic quarterback and offense that makes plays in the most critical areas and at the most critical times.

Here’s how we’re betting Texas vs. TCU on Saturday.

Model Projection for Texas-TCU

Using our betting power ratings, we can project every spread and total. EDGE members can access our full power ratings here.

  • Spread: Texas -6.1
  • Total: 60.8

Market Has Corrected Itself, But Still Time to Get In

The opener at Circa Sports in Las Vegas was TCU -2.5, which generated plenty of eyeball emoji texts on Sunday afternoon.

That point spread caught so many people off guard that I had a LinkedIn request from a guy I haven’t spoken to since high school who asked if Texas could pay his mortgage.

Sure enough, I was among the Sunday crowd to take a stance on Texas even after the narrowest of victories against Kansas and that flipped the line to Texas -1.

The buzzards are swirling over Texas defensive coordinator Todd Orlando and his job status. The Longhorns have underperformed all season, ranking 119th in total defense and 113th in sack rate.

The advanced analytics are not much better for Texas, with a defensive passing success rate of 120th and havoc ranking of 79th. Tom Herman noted in his Monday presser that it wasn’t a lack of effort for the injured defensive unit, rather than bad angles, technique and execution.

This run by Pooka Williams shows all three.

If you watch the UT-UK film it’s impossible to ignore Pooka Williams. He’s simply a playmaker, give him the ball and he’s gonna do something special a lot of the time. Also pretty abysmal defense and tackling by Texas, but it’s still a super hard play to pull off. #WNSFilm pic.twitter.com/LSMY7Yk53G

— Mark 🏈 (@HeaneyNFLDraft) October 22, 2019

The question remains if TCU can expose some of those issues on the Texas defense. But more importantly, does the TCU defense have a shot at stopping Sam Ehlinger?

The Longhorns offense is first in the nation in third down conversion percentage and fourth in red zone points per attempt.

And the biggest reason I bet on Texas early in the week was TCU’s defense surrendering 21 passing plays of 20 yards or more. TCU ranks 112th in defensive pass explosiveness, which should be a major factor when Ehlinger goes to the air with Collin Johnson and Devin Duvernay.

Ehlinger INT, Kansas TD, blocked PAT and now this. Duvernay with a huge TD. Excellent deep throw by QB11, too. pic.twitter.com/5pHSYbS7WW

— Brian Davis (@BDavisAAS) October 20, 2019

Considering all the offensive statistics where Texas has major advantages, one data point stuck out on TCU… red zone defense. The Horned Frogs are 129th in opponent red zone points per attempt. If the Toronto Raptors TCU uniforms are not enough to scare Texas, the Longhorns should have a field day in Frogs territory.

If you pay attention to the market, this will be one of the most lopsided ticket versus money counts of the entire weekend. As of this writing, more than 80% of the money and tickets have all been written on the Longhorns while the point spread stays at TCU +1.

Generally the reverse line movement in a college game with a high ticket count is not something I want to fade, but a closer look at these TCU advanced stats leaves no option to bet against the Frogs.

So I’ll swim with the public on a Texas team that has done a lot against much better defenses.

Pick: Texas -1 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

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