Broncos vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - October 12, 2025

Davis actually ran more routes than Breece Hall against Dallas. The Jets rank 4th in running back target share, so it's a valuable role for whoever is out there. The route distribution could have something to do with New York getting destroyed, but we’re looking at a similar situation here. Denver is favored by a touchdown in London. They’ve been stingy against RBs through the air, but the game script should be in Davis’ favor.

There is a value opportunity on Isaiah Davis's receptions prop. THE BLITZ is projecting 1.97 receptions for him with a 53% chance that he exceeds 1.5 receptions. If you can get the over at +165 or better, there is some great value here. (This play is good down to at least +117.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Luck Rankings

I've been looking all season for good opportunities to fade the Broncos. Denver underwhelmed in a one-score opening win against Cam Ward and the Titans, then got thoroughly outplayed in a Week 2 loss to the Colts. The Broncos had only nine first downs in an ugly loss to the Chargers, but bounced back since with an easy win over Jake Browning and the Bengals and last week's comeback win over the Eagles. That win feels much less exciting a week later, after Philadelphia got pounded Thursday night by the lowly Giants, and after a reminder that Denver trailed in that game 17-3 until its late comeback. The Broncos may still be living off last year's hype. I've also been looking for the right time to invest in the Jets, so this just might be the perfect cross section. The Jets are the final winless team in the league, but they haven't played at all like the worst team. Three times already, New York arguably outplayed its competition but failed to get the win, against the Steelers, Bucs, and Dolphins — two of those teams clear division leaders. The Jets continue to rank top 10 in the league in Success Rate on both offense and defense. That metric tells us New York is getting the job done on a down-to-down basis but getting beat on big plays. The problem, in a word? Turnovers. The Jets have yet to force a single turnover on the season, an ignominious historical feat through five games. Contrast that to eight turnovers already by the Jets offense, and that's almost two extra possessions per game New York is handing its opponent. Turnovers tend to be random and that means regression to the mean overtime, especially on fumbles. The Jets have had horrendous fumble luck. The offense has fumbled seven times — not great, tied for most in the league — but only recovered two of those, and New York has not recovered any of its five fumbles forced. That's two fumbles recovered out of 12, for a stat expected to land around 50/50. The odds of a 50/50 event happening just two or fewer times in 12 is under two percent! The Jets have been extremely unlucky so far, so it's no surprise this team ranks dead last in our Luck Rankings and sits as a clear Luck Rankings side against these Broncos. We're seeing some Aaron Glenn grumbles lately, but Glenn and new OC Tanner Engstrand appear to be doing a great job. The offense has been creative and moved the ball well, and the team is playing hard. The defensive scheme has left something to be desired, especially the No. 32 DVOA pass defense, but star corner Sauce Gardner should be able to hang with Denver's only top receiver, Courtland Sutton. Can Bo Nix really punish this Jets pass defense? Nix has had some of the worst passing metrics in the league so far this season. Engstrand's offense may be able to run on Denver, though. The Broncos run defense hasn't been as good this year as it was last season. The linebackers, in particular, have struggled as they wait for Dre Greenlaw to get healthy. If the Jets continue to find success in the run game and get to the second level, Denver's defense is beatable. From Week 4 forward, winless teams like the Jets facing a winning team that's not undefeated are 66-40-3 ATS (62%). The 7.5-point spread is key here. Denver just hasn't proven itself worthy to be that hefty a favorite against many teams in the NFL. I could only make Denver a 7.5-point favorite or longer on a neutral field against the league's bottom two teams — neither of which is the Jets. Grab the hook above the key number and let's see if the Jets can hang close and compete in London — and sprinkle a bit on the +320 moneyline too in case the Jets keep it going with a fourth consecutive shocking NFL upset this week.

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker. If you play on Sleeper you can get u37.5

Projecting this closer to 30.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 35.5

@GDAWG5000 https://myaction.app/QzEiDAmkmXb

@sundaysixpack @ChrisRaybon https://myaction.app/S6McBO2wkXb

@ChrisRaybon 1 https://myaction.app/S6McBO2wkXb

DK

COLLAB WITH @nick_giffen

Collab w @GDAWG5000 Fields will scramble more vs man, Broncos play man highest rate in NFL (43.7%) Fields has only faced man on 16.7% of dropbacks so far this year

There may be some value on the receptions prop for RJ Harvey. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 2.06 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 2.96. The model believes there is a 67% chance he records fewer than 2.5 receptions. If you can get the under at +100 or better, there is some great value here. (This play is good down to at least -138.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Winless dogs 119-77-2 (61%) ATS since 2018 Winless single-digit dogs 103-58-2 (64%) ATS since 2018