The Denver Broncos (3-2) and New York Jets (0-5) meet in Week 6 of the NFL season. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England; the game will broadcast on NFL Network.
The Broncos are 7.5-point favorites over the Jets on the spread (Broncos -7.5), with the over/under set at 43.5. Denver is a -390 favorite to win outright on the moneyline and New York is +310 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Broncos vs Jets predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 12.
Broncos vs Jets Prediction
- Broncos vs Jets pick: Jets +7.5 (-115)
My Jets vs Broncos best bet is on New York to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Broncos vs Jets Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -390 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
Broncos vs Jets Week 6 Preview
I've been looking for good opportunities to fade the Broncos all season.
Denver underwhelmed in a one-score opening win against Cam Ward and the Titans, and then got thoroughly outplayed in a loss to the Colts.
The Broncos had only nine first downs in an ugly loss to the Chargers the following week, but bounced back with an easy win over Jake Browning and the Bengals, and then pulled off last a comeback win over the Eagles in their latest outing.
That win feels much less exciting a week later after Philadelphia got pounded by the lowly Giants on Thursday night, and after a reminder that Denver trailed in that game 17-3 until making a late comeback �� the Broncos may still be living off last year's hype.
I've also been looking for the right time to invest in the Jets — this just might be the perfect cross section.
The Jets are the final winless team in the league, but they haven't played like the worst team at all.
Three times already this season, New York arguably outplayed its competition but failed to get the win against the Steelers, Bucs and Dolphins — two of those teams clear division leaders.
The Jets continue to rank top 10 in the league in Success Rate on both offense and defense. That metric tells us New York is getting the job done on a down-to-down basis, but getting beat on big plays.
The problem, in a word? Turnovers.
The Jets have yet to force a single turnover on the season, an ignominious historical feat through five games. Contrast that to eight turnovers by the Jets offense already, and that's almost two extra possessions per game New York is handing the opposition.
Turnovers tend to be random, and that means regression to the mean over time — especially on fumbles.
The Jets have had horrendous fumble luck. The offense has fumbled seven times — not great, tied for most in the league — but only recovered two of those, and New York has not recovered any of its five fumbles forced.
That's two fumbles recovered out of 12, for a stat expected to land around 50/50. The odds of a 50/50 event happening just two or fewer times in 12 chances is under 2%!
The Jets have been extremely unlucky, so it's no surprise this team ranks last in our Luck Rankings, and stands as a clear Luck Rankings side against the Broncos in London.
We're seeing some Aaron Glenn grumbles lately, but Glenn and new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand appear to be doing a great job.
The offense has been creative and has moved the ball well, and the team is playing hard.
The defensive scheme has left something to be desired, especially the No. 32 DVOA pass defense, but star corner Sauce Gardner should be able to hang with Denver's top receiver, Courtland Sutton.
Broncos vs Jets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Can Bo Nix punish the Jets' pass defense? Nix has posted some of the worst passing metrics in the league so far this season.
Engstrand's offense may be able to run on Denver, though.
The Broncos' run defense hasn't been as good this year as it was last season. The linebackers, in particular, have struggled as they wait for Dre Greenlaw to get healthy.
If the Jets continue to find success in the run game and get to the second level, Denver's defense is beatable.
From Week 4 forward, winless teams — like the Jets — facing a winning team that's not undefeated are 66-40-3 ATS (62%).
The 7.5-point spread is key here.
Denver simply hasn't proven itself worthy of being such a hefty favorite. I could only make Denver a 7.5-point favorite or longer on a neutral field against the league's bottom two teams — neither of which are the Jets.
Grab the hook above the key number, and let's see if the Jets can hang close and compete in London — and sprinkle a bit on the +320 moneyline, just in case the Jets keep it going with a fourth consecutive shocking NFL upset this week.
Pick: Jets +7.5 (-115)
Spread
My Jets vs Broncos betting prediction is on New York to cover the spread at +7.5.
Moneyline
My main pick is on the Jets to cover the spread; as I noted above, I don't mind a sprinkle on the moneyline as well.
Over/Under
I'm steering clear of the total in this spot.
