I'm targeting three NFL spreads on Sunday of Week 6, including picks for Jets vs. Broncos, Rams vs. Ravens, and Cowboys vs. Panthers.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the sixth NFL Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Predictions & Spread Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9:30 a.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Broncos vs Jets London Best Bet
The Jets are 0-5 straight-up – typical Jets shit, if we’re being honest.
As a bettor, these spots should always attract our attention. Per our Bet Labs data, winless 'dogs are 119-77-2 (61%) ATS since 2018, including 103-58-2 (64%) for single-digit 'dogs in this spot.
And the Jets, though objectively a factory of sadness, don’t even deserve to be 0-5. Their Pythagorean win total is 1.5, and three of their five losses have been in one-score games.
Under a new coaching staff, they will likely improve as the season progresses.
Getting Jermaine Johnson back on defense should help with that, especially against a Broncos' offensive line in its first game since losing Ben Powers, who allowed no sacks and five pressures on 210 pass-blocking snaps.
The Jets are a good bet for positive turnover regression, as they’re the only team without a takeaway through five weeks.
The Broncos play man coverage at the NFL’s highest clip (62.8%), which Justin Fields has rarely seen (27.2%, last among 35 qualifiers), but torched for a 126.1 passer rating (third) compared to 88.0 versus zone (24th), per FTN.
Vance Joseph’s unit will likely dial it back somewhat, but Fields is likely to see the highest rate of man coverage he’s seen all year.
Four of the five Broncos' games this season have been decided by one score.
Three of the Jets' five losses have come by six points or less, and it likely would have been 4-of-5 if not for a fluky sequence that saw them go from 1st-and-10 at the Cowboys 23 down 10-3 at the 2:18 mark of the second quarter to down 23-3 at the half due to a Breece Hall fumble and subsequent defensive meltdown.
Pick: Jets +7.5 (-115)
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Rams vs Ravens Spread Prediction
If there is one thing history has taught us, it’s that it’s never as bleak as it looks after a team gets blown out by a massive number.
Per Action Labs, underdogs are 106-78-8 (60%) ATS since 2003 when coming off a loss of 30-plus, including 94-58-3 (64%) ATS at +4 or longer.
Being without Lamar Jackson and Roquan Smith is a tough blow, but the injury situation has still improved drastically from last week: LT Ronnie Stanley, CB Marlon Humphrey, and S Kyle Hamilton are off the injury report completely after missing last week.
The Rams are good, but have struggled to win by margin. Their only win by more than one score came against the lowly Titans, and they trailed as late as the 1:17 mark of the third quarter of that game.
In Week 4 they needed 14 points in the final 3:20 to beat the Colts by one score. And then last week, they lost outright to the 49ers as an even bigger favorite at home (-9).
Cooper Rush has been a competent backup in years past (9-6 SU, 9-6 ATS), and I thought he was unlucky to throw three picks despite only being charged by PFF with one turnover-worthy play.
I’m not sold on the Rams' pass defense, which got lit up in the second halves of Weeks 3-4 by Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones for a combined 386 yards and 4 TDs, before coughing up 342 yards and 2 TDs to Mac Jones over the full game last week.
Pick: Ravens +7.5 (-118)
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Cowboys vs Panthers ATS/Total Picks
Panthers +3
Both of these teams have been location-sensitive this year.
- Cowboys home: 40.0 points for, 7.66 Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, +1.5 point differential
- Cowboys road: 23.7 PF, 6.14 ANYA, -2.0 PD
- Panthers road: 15.0 PF, 32.0 PA, -17.0 PD
- Panthers home: 28.5 PF, 5.41 ANYA +16.5 PD
That’s been true of Dak Prescott his entire career. He is averaging 8.29 ANYA at home compared to 7.01 as a visitor.
Those splits have become more stark since CeeDee Lamb was drafted in 2020, with Prescott posting an ANYA mark of 8.31 at home but 6.66 on the road.
Lamb (ankle) has been ruled out, as has KaVontae Turpin (foot), which drains a good deal of explosiveness from Prescott’s disposal.
The absence of Tyler Booker (ankle) could also loom large on the interior with DT Derrick Brown back and playing on an All-Pro level, and there's 13 mph winds and a slight chance of rain in the forecast.
This could be a more physical game than expected, with a motivated Rico Dowdle eager to be fed in a revenge game after carrying 23 times for 206 yards last week.
The Panthers dominated last week, outgaining the Dolphins 418-239 in a 27-24 win that was only close because of two early turnovers that gave the Dolphins that ball around midfield and resulted in a 17-0 hole.
The Panthers have undergone a few changes that haven’t necessarily been fully priced in for this week.
- That starts with Dowdle, who assumed the lead back role in place of Chuba Hubbard (calf), who is out again this week. Dowdle is averaging 4.35 yards after contact per attempt, third among 56 qualifiers and nearly two full yards more than Hubbard (2.57, 42nd).
- Xavier Legette returned and Jimmy Horn Jr. was active for the first time, giving the Panthers more speed to pair with Tet McMillan.
- They switched defensive signal-calling responsibilities from Christian Rozeboom to Trevin Wallace, giving them a better communicator in run support on early downs. They held the Dolphins to 19 rushing yards.
The Panthers quietly rank third in defensive success rate overall (40.5%) and fourth on early downs (39.9%), per rbsdm.com. Their points per game mark of 23.8 this season is inflated by offensive and special teams gaffes.
Under 49
As mentioned, the Panthers are quietly top-four defensive success rate overall and on early downs, while the Cowboys are missing arguably their two most explosive players in Lamb and Turpin.
George Pickens will likely see more time matched up with Jaycee Horn, who has allowed a 63.6 passer rating and a 52.4% completion rate on 21 targets across 176 coverage snaps.
Both of these teams rank above-average in time of possession per drive, and with the Cowboys missing the two most explosive players in the game in a potentially windy environment. So, I like this game to go under as well.
The Cowboys have gone over the total by an average of 13.6 points per game this season.
Per Action Labs, when the visitor comes in averaging an over margin greater than 13 points over the prior five games, the under is 52-34-3 (60%) since 2004, covering by 2.0 points per game with a 17% ROI.
Pick: Panthers +3, Under 49
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