Commanders vs. Packers Odds & Betting Predictions - September 12, 2025

Don’t love the odds but he had 2 receptions off 4 targets last week with Deebo Samuel now in the mix. Action PRO projecting this closer to 4 receptions so I’ll bite.

J. Daniels ⬆️ 20.5 Pass Completions (-105 @ MGM)(WSH) Daniels gets a really tough matchup tonight against a good GB defense that added Micah Parsons just before the season began. I think that sets up well for the short passing game here. Daniels fell short of this mark in week 1 with 19 completions. Not only is NYG a tough matchup but the run game was effective and they held the lead for most of the game. No need to push the passing game more than they did. What's really interesting about this GB defense, is they only blitzed only 9.3% of the time, while still creating a ton of pressure (37.2%). As a result, GB's secondary allowed a sub-15% single coverage rate. This allows them to keep a good coverage unit in the secondary. That should force Daniels to get the ball put quicker and to shorter targets, utilizing the backs and TE's. Now let's talk about prime time Jayden. In his last 5 PT games, he's cleared this completion line in all of them. I think this has some shootout potential and there certainly could be a negative game script for WSH, especially if the run isn't effective against a good GB front.

Bet105

Romeo Doubs over 4.5 1Q rec yds (-1239l at DK) Packers are extreeeeemely likely to start with ball Started w/ball 17 of 19 games since start of last year and 100% of the time when they win the toss since Week 4 of last year Washington has deferred 100% under Dan Quinn GB came out pass happy in Week 1, Love had 70% dropback rate in 1H Doubs has cleared 4.5 rec yds in 10 of those 14 in games where GB starts w/ball 22.8% of tgt and 31% of yds come in 1Q His full game line is around 40.5-43.5 depending on the book, but 22.8% of even 40.5 is just over 9 yards and we’re getting 4.5 Jayden Reed low snap count, no targets on first drive last week w foot injury. Expect similar saving him for if game is close

+550 at FD is fine too Packers 3rd most INT last year (17), Xavier McKinney had 8 of them, wouldn’t be surprised if he gets an INT tonight In fact, McKinney's career INT rate (0.255 INTs per 100% of snaps played) fair value would be around +345 against an average defense However, McKinney has been even better L2 years and has a solid matchup with GB playing C2/3/6 all at top-10 rates, which are the three coverages Jayden has struggled with (4/6 TD/INT ratio) Would play this down to +450

Action Island

Projection: 2.9. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

@kendrajmiddleton0_ https://myaction.app/cNgs6OL8zWb

Projection: 0.68 INTs, -119.9. For more, check out the Fantasy Life player projections.

Love already looked sharp in Week 1, going 16/22 for 188 yards and 2 TDs in a 27-13 win over Detroit. A lot of people are betting his under 30.5 attempts, which makes sense if you’re just box score watching or leaning too hard on last year’s splits. The Packers were extremely run heavy in 2024, but context matters: they played with the lead 56% of the time (3rd highest), Love played through a knee issue, and there was even a two-game stretch with Malik Willis where the run rate went nuclear. Add in a Round 1 WR in Matthew Golden, and it was pretty clear they weren’t going to be as run-heavy this year. Sure enough, the Packers opened Week 1 with a 70% dropback rate in the first half. Then the game script flipped: they went up 17-3 at halftime, the Lions kept pounding Montgomery for 2-yard runs and dumping off to Gibbs, and the Packers ended up running just 47 plays with only 24.5 minutes of possession. Love had just 22 attempts, but it was basically the perfect storm for his under to cash. Even when they got the ball with under a minute before halftime (the last pass-heavy sequences left for them in that game) they went three-and-out. Then in the 4th quarter, after opening with a pass, they rattled off 13 straight runs to end the game. This week’s environment should be much friendlier. Washington should at least keep things competitive, forcing Love to throw deeper into the 4th quarter. He’s never going to be mistaken for Joe Burrow in this market (you’re not going to see books floating 36+ attempt props, ever, for him for a reason), but 29.5 is just a shade too low. I’m projecting him closer to 31.2. One other edge here: Love’s pressure-to-sack rate was 3rd lowest last season, and he scrambled at the 11th lowest rate. That combo means a higher percentage of his dropbacks actually turn into attempts, which is a sneaky floor booster in this market. Week 1 is always chaos. Week 2 at least gives us some real usage to lean on, and this looks like the type of overreaction spot I want to buy into.

There is a value opportunity on Jacory Croskey-Merritt's rush attempts prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 8.35 rush attempts, while Vegas implies 10.45. The model believes there is a 67% chance he records fewer than 9.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at +110. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

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PTP best bet

“Don Wick” coming Thursday to a theater near you.

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THE BLITZ is forecasting 21.48 completions for Love. The oddsmakers' implied projection is 19.14 completions, so I believe there is some value here. If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 59% of the time resulting in a 34% ROI with expected value of $33.56 (based on a $100 wager). (NOTE: The best line right now is 19.5 +125 at Hard Rock.) Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

There is a value opportunity on Josh Jacobs's rush attempts prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 17.01 rush attempts, while Vegas implies 22.08. The model believes there is a 75% chance he records fewer than 19.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at +100. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at https://evanalytics.com/subscribe/nfl?ref=inf8qq%22%3EEV Analytics!

TNF TD LADDER 🪜

Found a 3. Bought out of 3.5.

👀 Week 2 Lookahead 👀 Each week in this column, I'll play at least one look-ahead line. While everyone else is focused on games this weekend, I'm already looking ahead at next weekend's slate. The goal of the Lookahead is to get ahead of this weekend's results and grab a line now that won't be there next week. This first pick for Week 2 should come as no surprise if you've been following my season previews or even the picks in this column. I like Green Bay a ton this year and expect them to take care of the Lions, which would certainly boost the Packers' profile. I'm also down on Washington with little real strength outside of Jayden Daniels and expect them to struggle with the Giants, maybe even lose. If those results go that direction, there's no chance this stays below the key number of three a week from now. It probably ends up on the other side — and it should. These teams are not in the same class. I slotted the Packers third in my initial power ranking, while the Commanders are closer to the bottom 10. This is effectively the same line Green Bay is getting at home in Week 1 against the Lions — but why in the world would we power rank Washington equal to Detroit? That Lions line dropped a bit because of the Micah Parsons trade, but this one hasn't budged. It should've — Parsons sacked Jayden Daniels 4.5 times in two games last year, and now Washington will have a short week and just one game of film to prepare for how Parsons will be unleashed in this defense. That short week is also an even bigger advantage for Matt LaFleur against Dan Quinn, and LaFleur is outstanding early in the season at 12-3 ATS the first three games, entering this weekend. I don't expect this line to stay below three long, and it's already there at some books. Grab Packers -2.5 while it's still there and we're already set for Thursday night.

@wheatonbrando Week 2 Lookahead https://myaction.app/TqfB5ck7pWb