NFL MVP Picks & Fantasy Football Targets: Christi Walsh’s Favorite Quarterback Crushes
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: NFL player Aaron Rodgers (L) and Danica Patrick
Guys! It’s almost that time of year again. Well, hopefully.
With the current climate — a global pandemic, rioting, murder hornets, my kids, etc. — and uncertainty with sports, it’s hard to say exactly what is going to happen with the NFL over the next couple of months. But I am nothing if not optimistic (lol), if only just to have something to look forward to after the summer months.
With that being said, it’s finally time to get back on the wagon. Off the wagon? I don’t know, either way I need to gamble. I need something to look forward to other than which child is going to have a meltdown before 8 a.m.
Spoiler alert: The correct answer is both children and a 39-year-old husband.
I’m sure you’ve already checked out PJ Walsh’s article on my Tom Brady MVP ticket, so I figured I would piggyback on that with some of my favorite MVP bets and a couple of fantasy football quarterbacks that I love this year. It’s a two-fer!
Disclaimer: I am in no way promoting and/or agreeing with the contents of said Brady MVP article (above). I have no affiliation with the writer, besides a binding marriage contract, and his ideas are his own, mostly because it was Vegas and I was, quite frankly, deep into adult beverages.
I did in fact bet Brady at 30-1 to win MVP, and at that time I did not know where he would play this season or that he would have one of the best offenses in the league. It worked out just fine, but his odds are now 16-1, so not ideal to bet at this point.
Even though you can’t grab Brady to win MVP at 30-1, there are still plenty of QBs that have enticing odds. Let’s look at my three favorite quarterback crushes.
NFL MVP Picks & Fantasy Football Targets
Aaron Rodgers 30-1
It’s no secret that I am an avid Aaron Rodgers fan, and with the news of his latest breakup with Danica Patrick (truly, very sad), I figured it was time to dust off the old computer and get back to doing what I do best: Writing mediocre articles about sports and betting.
As of right now, Aaron Rodgers’ MVP odds are 30-1 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Unfortunately during the offseason the Packers didn’t do much to change or improve their offense, but that same offense (and team) managed to squeak out 13 wins last season.
I say “squeak out” because my oh my some of those wins were brutal. But in sports, just like marital arguments, a win is a win is a win. According to The Action Network’s Sean Koerner, the Packers have just the 19th-toughest strength of schedule, making it plausible that a healthy Rodgers and Co. could put together another playoff run.
And with that being the case, I don’t hate the Packers over 8.5 wins either.
Take ’em both, you’ll hate me later for it.
In season-long fantasy football, Rodgers’ average draft position (ADP) is 10th among quarterbacks according to FantasyPros.com. I don’t necessarily think that is a bad position, but I would be comfortable taking him earlier than the current market.
Also, The Action Network’s fantasy rankings slot him at No. 13 at the position. I like Rodgers more than both Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz, and who knows, maybe with Green Bay spending its first-round draft pick on quarterback Jordan Love, Rodgers will get the proverbial fire lit under his tuchus (see, I don’t always curse).
Now, let’s hope Rodgers reads this love letter and contacts me. Let’s also hope that my husband doesn’t.
Editor’s Note: I read it.
Josh Allen 50-1
Whew, OK, let’s get back on topic. Josh Allen. That is all.
No, that’s not actually all, but it could be. He is “my guy” this year and you can grab him at 50-1 for MVP. The addition of Stefon Diggs to a wide receiver corps that already included John Brown and Cole Beasley, plus Allen’s ability to improvise and run, and you’ve got yourself a potential MVP candidate.
And if it’s good enough for Evan Silva, it’s good enough for me:
Josh Allen. At 50-1. To win MVP: “I don’t know why you wouldn’t bet it…”@evansilva joined @MattFtheOracle, @ChrisRaybon & @The_Oddsmaker on the @ActionNetPod to talk 2020 fantasy QB rankings: https://t.co/ZNW9AByfVS pic.twitter.com/93yeowtJcN
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) July 20, 2020
We just need to keep our fingers crossed that in his third year Allen improves his accuracy to add balance to a run-heavy offense.
And not only do I like Allen’s MVP odds, I LOVE him in fantasy football this year. Although Koerner has him ranked just 11th among signal-callers, Fantasy Pros reports Allen’s current QB ADP at 7.8. I have to agree with the latter, with the potential of putting him above Ryan.
Could be that I think Matty Ice is a polished turd, or it could be that I’m freakishly obsessed with everything Bills. Only time (and my bankroll) will tell.
Joe Burrow 150-1
Finally, while in Vegas I picked up one more longshot MVP bet, rounding out my quarterback crushes: Bengals rookie Joe Burrow at 100-1. At the time, I wasn’t 100% which team he was going to be drafted by (though the Bengals were certainly as close to a lock as possible), but I don’t hate the end result.
The offensive cupboard in Cincy certainly isn’t bare — Burrow will have playmakers Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard in the backfield, and the roster currently includes pass-catchers A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross and Auden Tate.
If everything falls in place, Burrow makes an interesting longshot, especially considering Cincy’s sixth-easiest strength of schedule. FanDuel Sportsbook has Burrow’s passing yardage over/under set at 3,800.5 yards and 22.5 touchdowns. That’s pretty good for a rookie who you can pick up at 150-1 for MVP.
Now this might come as a shock to you, but I also like Burrow for a top-10 fantasy football season at quarterback as well. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option, but with the skill position players at his disposal and the potential for racking up junk-time points while playing from behind, this offense could see some serious action.
And let’s be honest, it’s the Bengals, they are going to be playing from behind.
In fact, The Action Network’s Chris Raybon projects the Bengals’ schedule as the seventh easiest for fantasy football quarterbacks this season.
However, our rankings slot Burrow at just 18th among quarterbacks, but there is easily a scenario in which I’ll be willing to take him earlier, especially if my 2020 fantasy football draft goes like it has in years past: mock, mock and mock some more, make a plan, have a couple beers and then panic and draft like an asshole.
I cave under pressure, and I’m OK with that.