Cardinals-Chiefs Betting Preview: Will Mahomes Cover Another Double-Digit Spread?

Cardinals-Chiefs Betting Preview: Will Mahomes Cover Another Double-Digit Spread? article feature image

Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15).

Betting odds: Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Spread: Chiefs -16.5
  • Over/Under: 49.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: This is a big number, but two-thirds of bettors have not been scared away from taking the Chiefs. Despite the public support, they’ve fallen from the nice round number of -17 to -16.5.

There haven’t been any bet signals on the Cardinals, but they are receiving 45% of the money, which is 10% higher than their percentage of bets (check out the latest data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: This is just the second time in the past 20 years that the Chiefs have been favored by 14 or more points, according to our Bet Labs data.

The previous time was Week 15 vs. Detroit in 2003, Trent Green and Priest Holmes combined for six touchdowns in a win and cover. — John Ewing

Did you know? Andy Reid’s teams have been favored by 14 or more points four other times in his career going 2-2 straight up and against the spread. His teams have lost and failed to cover in the past two games.

Reid hasn’t been profitable as a large favorite, going 22-24 ATS when giving more than seven points to an opponent in the regular season. — Ewing

The Chiefs can be the first team in the NFL this season to eclipse their preseason win total (8.5, over +115) with a win against the Cardinals. — Evan Abrams

The Cardinals are averaging 13.8 PPG (31st in the league) and face a Chiefs team, that is averaging a league-leading 36.3 PPG.

Since 2003, teams averaging fewer than 14 PPG on the season — and are also coming off a win and listed as an underdog of more than a touchdown — are 17-6-2 ATS (73.9%), covering the spread by 6.1 PPG and profiting bettors 9.4 units. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Chiefs pass rush vs. Arizona offensive line

The Chiefs have received a lot of flack for their lack of defense this season, but they’ve at least been better against the pass (14th in DVOA) than the run (32nd).

The Cardinals were able to pick up a win in Byron Leftwich’s first game as offensive coordinator, although it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to fix an offensive line that is one of just three units to surrender a pressure rate of 40% or higher this season.

Not helping matters for the Cardinals offense is a Chiefs defense that has taken its game to another level at Arrowhead.

K.C.’s defense has allowed 23.5 PPG and 269.3 pass yards on the road compared to 16.7 PPG and 227 pass yards at home since 2015. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Cardinals are at risk of missing starting guards Jeremy Vujnovich (hamstring) and Justin Pugh (hand), but receiver Chad Williams (ankle) is the only other key contributor thought to be at risk of missing action.

The Chiefs are hoping to get elite pass-rusher Justin Houston (hamstring) back this week, but they could once again be without safeties Eric Berry (heel) and Daniel Sorensen (knee).

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill.

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot), left guard Cam Erving (heel) and center Mitch Morse (concussion) all failed to practice to start the week.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: The Cardinals have only asked Patrick Peterson to shadow Stefon Diggs this season, although Tyreek Hill would certainly warrant that treatment. Watkins (foot, questionable) is also a candidate, considering Hill has run 37% of his snaps from the slot this season.

Matchups aren’t particularly worrisome for anyone involved in the league’s top-ranked scoring offense, although Hill’s infamous home/away splits are just getting ridiculous at this point.

Overall, TyFreak has scored 20 touchdowns in 20 career road games compared to eight touchdowns in 22 games at Arrowhead Stadium.

Be sure to stack Hill with MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes on DraftKings, where they boast a +0.3 positive correlation in nine career games together. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Cardinals +16.5

The Chiefs have steamrolled their competition this season, owning an 8-1 record SU and ATS. That said, this could be a tricky spot.

The Cardinals looked better offensively in their last game before the bye, which coincided with Byron Leftwich’s first game as offensive coordinator. Arizona recorded a season-high in total yards in that 18-15 win vs. the San Francisco 49ers.

My biggest concerns, though, lie with Kansas City. For starters, the Chiefs will likely be without Watkins. Losing a skill player doesn’t seem like a huge deal given the Chiefs’ loaded offense, but they did struggle a bit with Watkins out of the lineup Week 4 in Denver.

This is also a major lookahead spot for the Chiefs, who have a potential Super Bowl preview vs. the Los Angeles Rams looming next week. They know they don’t need their A-game to beat the Cards — or their B-game for that matter — so I’m not expecting to see it. — Matt LaMarca

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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