Early Public Money Fading Patriots in Super Bowl 52
Jan 13, 2018; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts in the cold during the second quarter against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Divisional playoff game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
As New Englanders, Super Bowl 42 brings us back to a dark, dark place. A 19-0 season on the line, favored by nearly two touchdowns…what could go wrong?
Nearly brings a tear to my eye to this day.
That was also the only Super Bowl involving the Patriots in our database (beginning with Super Bowl 38) in which New England received as little public support as they are getting right now.
Though there is still plenty of time for bettors to hop on New England, the public is fading the Patriots in the early going. This is just the opposite from last season, in which the Patriots received 62% of spread bets—the second highest that we’ve tracked for the Pats in the Super Bowl. Interestingly enough, in the six Super Bowls on file, they’ve covered both times in which they received more than 60% of bets while not covering the remaining four.
This isn’t as uncharacteristic as you may think, though. In the playoffs, they’ve received the minority of bets 1/3 of the time dating back to 2003. In that same time span, they’ve received the minority of bets during the regular season just about 12.5% of the time. Perhaps bettors have caught onto the fact that they’ve gone 16-17 ATS in the playoffs, but have covered more than 60% of the time during the regular season.
Though we haven’t tracked any specific sharp money indicators for the game just yet, the line has moved towards the Eagles across the market. After opening as a consensus six-point dog, Philly is now down to +5.5/+5 at most books and even +4.5 at 5Dimes.
Though five is generally a dead number in football spread betting, three of the 10 playoff games have been decided by five points, including the wild Saints-Vikings finish that ended with a kneel on the extra point.
As for the total, we saw some very early action move the opening lines of 47/47.5 up to 48 across the market. Most offshore books are still sitting at 48 with the occasional 48.5, while several Vegas books, including the Westgate Superbook, have moved back down to 47.5.
Be sure to follow @ActionNetworkHQ for timely updates as soon as news breaks or there is sharp market action.
Photo via Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports