The Detroit Lions (8-7) and Minnesota Vikings (7-8) face off in a Week 17 NFL Christmas game on Thursday, December 25. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on Netflix.
The Lions are 7.5-point favorites on the spread (Lions -7.5; -105), with the over/under set at 43.5 (-105o / -115u). The Lions are -355 favorites on the moneyline, while the Vikings are +280 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my NFL Christmas preview and Lions vs Vikings prediction.
Lions vs Vikings Prediction
- Lions vs Vikings pick: 2nd Half Under 20.5 (+100; DraftKings)
My Lions vs Vikings best bet is the second half total under 20.5 points. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Lions vs Vikings Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | -355 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | +280 |
Lions vs Vikings NFL Christmas Preview
When the Lions Have the Ball
This is a must-win game for the Lions, and the playoff math is very straightforward. The Lions need to win each of their final two games and have the Packers lose their final two in order to keep their postseason hopes alive.
With Green Bay dealing with injuries to both Jordan Love and Malik Willis, and a matchup against the Ravens — where Lamar Jackson’s status is still uncertain due to a back injury — the Lions can’t afford to get cute or look ahead. Their only job here is to beat the Vikings and live to fight another week.
That urgency suggests we should see Detroit come out focused and aggressive early, essentially treating this like a playoff game. However, if the Lions are able to build a lead, it opens the door for a more conservative, clock-controlling approach later in the game rather than pushing for style points.
From there, the matchup gets more interesting. The Lions' offensive line has struggled of late and has been dealing with injuries, and Jared Goff has faced the second-most pressures since Week 10.
That could be an issue against a Vikings defense that loves to blitz and leads the league in blitz rate under defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Goff ranks 16th in EPA per dropback when under pressure, but second when working from a clean pocket — disrupting timing is clearly the path to success for Minnesota.
The run game has also struggled recently, which is odd considering the Lions have leaned heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs, arguably the best RB in the league, yet he’s averaged just 2.9 yards per carry over the last four games.
Still, Minnesota profiles more as a run-funnel defense, so Detroit may lean into the ground game here, keep the clock moving, and lower the overall scoring environment.
When the Vikings Have the Ball
The Vikings offense has taken a major step back this season due to poor QB play.
As rough as J.J. McCarthy has been at times, his backup, Max Brosmer, had one of the worst games of the season the last time he filled in, throwing for just 126 yards, 0 TDs and 4 INTs against the Seahawks. His -35.8 EPA in that game was the lowest by any QB in a single game this season.
That performance came on the road against a Seahawks defense that ranks first in DVOA, so some context is warranted, but it’s still hard to imagine a massive leap forward based on what we’ve seen.
That also means the Vikings may struggle to take advantage of the Lions’ defensive injuries, including both starting safeties, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, being on IR.
The Vikings' offensive line is also in rough shape. LT Christian Darrisaw was placed on IR after Week 15, effectively ending his season. Center Ryan Kelly has been ruled out with a concussion, and RG Brian O’Neill is dealing with a heel injury.
Even if the Vikings want to lean on the run more, that will be difficult with the line this banged up, especially with RB Jordan Mason doubtful and Aaron Jones questionable, both with ankle injuries.
I see the Vikings struggling to move the ball and put up points here, with the short week hurting this unit more than most given how many key players are either out or less than 100%.
Lions vs Vikings Prediction, Betting Analysis
Despite roughly 70% of the action being on the over, the total has dropped from 46.5 to 43. The sharp money has clearly come in on the under, and it lines up with many of the factors outlined above.
I think the sneaky play is targeting the second-half under. The first half is where we’re most likely to see the Lions offense closer to their ceiling, with Dan Campbell being aggressive early. If they get up by a comfortable margin, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them take their foot off the gas and play conservatively in the second half.
That could also mean settling for more field-goal attempts. Jake Bates has been shaky at times this year, making just 79% of his kicks, which ranks 29th out of 37 qualified kickers.
Meanwhile, the Vikings may be forced to be more aggressive and forgo field-goal attempts, even with Will Reichard being one of the most accurate kickers in the league.
Another sneaky factor is punting.
I expect the Vikings to punt quite a bit, and Ryan Wright has been one of the better punters in the league. He ranks top five in net punt average, and his yards per punt, hang time, fair catch rate, and coverage all profile as borderline elite. That helps create longer fields and slows scoring.
Overall, the market for this game is very sharp. While Vikings +7.5 may technically be the sharper side, there’s no way I’m betting on them. The under, specifically the second half under, is the move.
Pick: 2nd Half Under 20.5 (+100; DraftKings)
Spread
I have no bet for either spread.
Moneyline
I'm also passing on both moneylines.
Over/Under
My bet for this game is the second half under 20.5.
