Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 17 Christmas Day on Thursday, December 25.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these NFL Christmas TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Christmas Day.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers — Christmas Thursday
| Picks |
|---|
| Cowboys vs Commanders |
| Lions vs Vikings |
| Broncos vs Chiefs |
Cowboys vs Commanders
The Cowboys play the seventh-highest rate of zone and have given up the most touchdowns to wide receivers.
I know he hasn't scored in four games, but this matchup sets well for WR Deebo Samuel to get in the end zone. The Commanders offense isn’t as fun overall with QB Marcus Mariota, but it hasn’t been that steep a drop-off with him over Jayden Daniels — Deebo has scored four of his six touchdowns in games that featured Mariota.
Something worth noting here is Deebo has contract incentives for touchdowns:
- 8 TDs: $250,000
- 9: $375,000
- 10: $500,000
- 11: $625,000
- 12: $750,000
And it's not just touchdowns. Deebo is two receptions away from triggering a $450,000 bonus and 61 receiving yards away from a $250,000 bonus.
The Commanders are out of the playoff picture, but Deebo personally has plenty to play for.
I don’t think the Commanders will spam his usage just so he can hit these milestones, but I think he can at least get one for us against the Cowboys instead of trying to bank on it in Week 18 against the Eagles.
I wanted to try and find a long shot for the Cowboys, but WR CeeDee Lamb has the best matchup, so I’m going to just default and take him to score a TD.
Lamb only has three on the season after missing some time with injury, but the encouraging news is he already has 1,000 receiving yards in 12 games and double-digit targets in eight of 12 games.
The Commanders have also mixed up their defense with more zone coverage in the second half of the season; Lamb has the best receiver metrics vs. zone on the Cowboys while also being a certified threat vs. man defense.
Verdict: Deebo Samuel +230 | CeeDee Lamb +125
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Lions vs Vikings
I get that with Max Brosmer at quarterback for the Vikings, we’re asking a lot for him to complete a pass, let alone throw for a TD.
He did show some decent range when trying to throw deep, and with the Lions allowing 20 touchdowns to WRs while ranking bottom eight against the deep ball, I’m going to try one more time with my guy WR Jordan Addison.
Addison only has three touchdowns this year, but he’s offering the best value of Vikings WRs with Justin Jefferson below +200 and Jalen Nailor now down below +500.
Since the last meeting with the Lions, the Vikings' defense has been elite at stopping touchdowns to key positions. A wide receiver or a tight end hasn’t scored on this defense over the last six games.
That’s kind of wild!
Now, I do think that trend will change this week, but it does make you have to be super careful on which angle you take with the Lions TD scorers, especially since they’re likely eliminated from the playoffs.
Since the Vikings play a top-10 rate of zone and the highest rate of two-high safety, I think you have to play it safe and just go with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
St. Brown leads the Lions by a mile in targets per route run against those coverages and should’ve had the game-winning TD vs. the Steelers on Sunday (negated by a penalty).
Verdict: Jordan Addison +300 | Amon-Ra St. Brown +120
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Broncos vs Chiefs
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton has been on a tear in recent weeks, but I can't stop betting on WR2 Troy Franklin.
Franklin has six touchdowns this season, and with WR3 Pat Bryant potentially out, the Oregon product could see an uptick in targets.
Franklin leads the team in targets per route run despite his TD output dropping off in the second half of the season.
If you want to take Sutton in this spot, I’d be OK with it since Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie will likely be out again, but any chance I can get Franklin over +200 in a plus matchup, I’m going to take it every time.
The Chiefs might just mail it in for the rest of the season after being eliminated from the playoffs and being on their third quarterback under center.
I think if you bet any Chief this week, I’m showing thin value on RB Isiah Pacheco at +450 because he’ll likely get more snaps than Kareem Hunt in a neutral gamescript and will definitely see the field more if the Chiefs are trailing (which is highly likely).
The encouraging news about Pacheco is that he played over 75% of snaps, led the Chiefs in rushing attempts and led the team with seven targets. The latter is important with QB Chris Oladokun starting because I expect the Chiefs to lean on the run and short-range targets, which lines up well with Pacheco.
Verdict: Troy Franklin +240 | Isiah Pacheco +500
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