The Denver Broncos (12-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) will face off in NFL Week 17. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. EST from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Broncos are 13.5-point favorites over the Chiefs on the spread (Broncos -13.5), with the over/under set at 36.5 total points. Denver is a -1000 favorite to win outright, while Kansas City is +650 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thursday Night Football preview and Broncos vs Chiefs prediction for tonight's NFL Christmas finale.
Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction
- Broncos vs Chiefs pick: Chiefs +13.5 (-110)
My Broncos vs Chiefs best bet is on Kansas City to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Broncos vs Chiefs Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +650 |
Broncos vs Chiefs Thursday Night Football Preview
Another week, another new starting quarterback for the Chiefs.
Tonight, Kansas City is expected to start third-string QB Chris Oladokun against the Broncos after Gardner Minshew suffered a knee injury against the Titans in Week 16.
All that can really be evaluated in this situation are Oladokun's preseason numbers — and those were not good (11-for-23 for 120 yards and two sacks over three games). He is likely going to take too many sacks and turn the ball over.
Still, the Chiefs receiving 13.5 points on the spread against a Broncos team that doesn't blow anyone out feels extreme.
The Broncos layed 10.5 points on a neutral field against the Jets and won that game by just two points — that's despite New York finishing with -10 passing yards. That context makes this line feel even more inflated.
Just a month ago, the Chiefs closed as four-point favorites in Denver. If home-field advantage is estimated at roughly 1.5 points each way, that line implied Kansas City was about 5.5 points better than the Broncos on a neutral field at the time.
The Broncos won that game 22-19, but it was essentially a coin-flip matchup. Now, the market is suggesting Denver is more than two touchdowns better than Kansas City, which represents a massive swing.
The assumption here is that Patrick Mahomes accounts for nearly a 20-point move on the spread. Even in the most extreme evaluation, Mahomes cannot realistically be worth more than 12 points to the line. No quarterback in the NFL should be worth 14 points against the spread.
Minshew was horrendous over the parts of two games he played this season — at least Oladokun offers some mobility and the ability to use designed quarterback runs, which will be necessary behind a Chiefs offensive line that is likely to struggle against Denver’s front.
It is also worth noting that Mahomes’ recent form was not all that strong. Over his last two games, he was statistically the worst quarterback in the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE).
The Chiefs offense was already broken over the last three weeks. This is not a case of an offense going from a a well-oiled machine to a third-string FCS quarterback. The offense had significant issues even before Mahomes was injured.
Even if Oladokun is viewed as the worst possible backup option, the downgrade should still cap Kansas City at around +5.5 without Mahomes, making Mahomes himself worth roughly seven points. At most, the total adjustment should be around 12.5 points, and that even feels aggressive.
There is value in Oladokun's ability to move. Last week against Tennessee was a terrible spot for Kansas City. The Chiefs had just been eliminated from the playoffs, multiple key players were sidelined with injuries, and then Minshew went down.
Oladokun had not taken any reps because he was the third-string option. The Chiefs essentially did not show up, and it was understandable given the circumstances.
Tonight is different. This is a rivalry game on Christmas night, at home, against a Broncos team that beat them earlier in the season and is now trying to clinch the AFC West. I think the Chiefs will have some motivation to bring a better effort.
The Chiefs defense is still capable of giving Bo Nix problems, and Denver’s defense may be slightly overrated.
The Broncos are also coming off a poor performance, annihilated at home by Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.
With a total of just 36 points, asking Denver to cover 13.5 points is a tall order. One or two deep completions against Riley Moss could be enough to get Kansas City into double digits and stay within the number. The realistic ceiling for Denver is probably around 21 points.
The Chiefs defense will play hard — effort should not be questioned on that end. The biggest concern remains simply where the correct number should be set.
Broncos vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Analysis
The most reasonable projection for this spread appears to be closer to 10.5 points. It is admittedly a difficult number to make, given the uncertainty around Oladokun. There is always the possibility of turnovers, pick-sixes, or a complete collapse leading to a 30-point loss.
However, even after accounting for that downside, Denver -13.5 feels like an inflated number.
Injury reports will matter. My main concern would be Kansas City going into a full shutdown mode, prioritizing draft position — but I think last week’s performance served as a wake-up call for them.
Most of the Chiefs' key players were back at practice this week. Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton sat previously, as did Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie. The cornerback situation remains concerning, but at least it wasn't a scenario where half the roster missed practice.
Following the embarrassment of last week’s effort, I think we'll see Kansas City take this game seriously. I make the spread for this game closer to Broncos -10.
Pick: Chiefs +13.5 (-110)
Spread
My Chiefs vs Broncos betting prediction is on Kansas City to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total in this game.
