Best Seahawks-Cowboys Wild Card Prop Bets: Dak Prescott, Chris Carson, More
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott (4), Chris Carson (32).
- There are four player props offering betting value in the late game on Saturday's Wild Card slate.
- This piece will focus on QB Dak Prescott, RB Chris Carson, TE Nick Vannett and RB Mike Davis.
The Seahawks and Cowboys meet on Saturday Night in Dallas in the second wild card weekend matchup, and we’re breaking down the best prop bets for what rates to be a slow-paced, run-heavy affair.
A 43.5 point total in this one reflects the fact that both teams clearly want to lean on the run and their strong defenses.
In such a low-totaled game, it’s no surprise that the Player Props Tool goes against the grain with a lot of overs. The three bets with a 10 rating at the time of writing are all overs, including one we’ll get to shortly.
We wipe the slate clean for the playoffs after a profitable regular season run:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 225-106 (66%)
- Article picks: 50-27 (65%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 337-230 (59%)
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
Under 245.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Cowboys and Seahawks live off the run; both feature red-hot running backs and are facing solid pass defenses. Expect a heavy dose of Chris Carson and Ezekiel Elliott, which will put a cap on overall play volume.
Seattle had the second-most rush attempts in the league this season, while the Cowboys had the 10th most. Conversely, Seattle passed less than any other team, and the Cowboys had the 12th-fewest pass attempts.
Volume aside, Dak Prescott’s struggles against zone defenses are well documented.
- When these two teams met in Week 3, the Seahawks defense held him to 168 yards on 34 attempts (4.9 YPA).
- In last season’s matchup, he had just 181 yards against Pete Carroll’s unit.
- Three weeks ago, it was the Colts confounding Prescott en route to a 206-yard day.
In that Week 3 game in Seattle, Prescott’s line was set at 205.5, and he still went well under. Is being at home really worth 40 passing yards for Prescott? The splits suggest not — he’s passed for just 13 yards more per game at home (249) compared to road games (236).
I don’t see this line moving much, but if it does, I’d still play it down to to 237.5.
Seahawks RB Chris Carson
Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
You may notice that the Props Tool is leaning towards under on this one, but keep in mind that is for the inflated 75.5 line, while we’re attacking the 70.5 line.
Sean Koerner is projecting 71 yards for Carson, and that conservative number makes sense given the pace concerns we already mentioned.
Still, every week odds makers set a sensible, conservative line for Carson, and every week he obliterates it.
- Over his past eight games, Carson’s average rushing line has been set at 69.5 yards.
- He’s beat his line on seven of eight occasions by an average margin of 33 yards.
- The lone under under saw him fall short by 7.5 yards.
While points and yards will be at a premium, Carson should be able to get by on efficiency — he’s put up 357 (5.3 YPC) over his past three games, while the Cowboys have given up 335 (4.5 YPC) over their past three.
All that said, I wouldn’t want to play this number any higher. However, we are getting a decent price here at -110, and I’d still pay up to -122.
Seahawks TE Nick Vannett
Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are in tough against a Cowboys secondary giving up the eighth-fewest yards to wide receivers.
Against tight ends, however, they are mediocre — ranking 19th against the position with 61 yards allowed per game. That number may be misleading — over the last half of the season, their average yards yielded ballooned to 73.8.
The Cowboys have allowed 16 different tight ends to go for 14 yards or more this season. Nick Vannett is nothing splashy, but he is averaging 17.9 yards on 2.9 targets, including a four-catch, 27-yard outing against the Cowboys this year.
I’d play this line to 14.5 yards. While I’m thrilled to be be getting plus odds here, I expect this price will move — I’d be willing to pay -115 to get this number.
Seahawks RB Mike Davis
Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Despite his sporadic passing production, this line is just too low to pass up.
While recent spiky outputs of of five, 63, zero, and 12 receiving yards do provide some pause, the overall averages suggest there is sufficient value at this number. Davis is averaging 3.3 targets and 20 yards per game over the past month, up from his marks of 2.8 for 14.3 on the year.
Dallas presents a prime opportunity to catch Davis on the upside.
- The Cowboys have yielded more catches to running backs than all but four teams (6.3/game).
- They’ve been even worse of late, allowing 7.3 catches per game over their last three.
Going back through their past six, Dallas has given up 40.1 receiving yards per game to enemy backs.
I’d play this number to 12.5 yards.