Panthers-Eagles Betting Preview: Keep an Eye on the Philly Weather

Panthers-Eagles Betting Preview: Keep an Eye on the Philly Weather article feature image
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cam Newton (1), Carson Wentz (11).

Betting odds: Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

  • Spread: Eagles -4.5
  • Over/Under: 45.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: We’re dealing with a fairly boring spread here, which has been anywhere between Eagles -3.5 and -5 across the market to go along with a near-50/50 bet split (see live data here).

As it stands, it doesn’t appear this game will get out of this dead zone of inconsequential numbers. The over/under has been even more boring: It opened at 45 and … remains at 45. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Excessive wind is expected to be a factor at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday (winds between 16-17 mph throughout the game).

Since 2003, when the wind is gusting above 10 mph, the under is 13-5-2 (72.2%), going under the total by 6.3 PPG, according to Bet Labs data.

Since 2013, only three games have closed with better than 10 mph winds and those teams averaged 28.3 points combined in the three contests (most recently the Falcons-Eagles playoff game from last season that finished 15-10). — Evan Abrams

The Panthers are coming off a straight-up and against-the-spread loss against the Redskins last week in Washington.

Since Cam Newton was drafted No. 1 overall in 2011, the Panthers are 24-11-1 ATS (+12 units) when coming off a SU and ATS loss, making Cam the second-most profitable quarterback in that spot behind Andrew Luck (+14 units). — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Panthers pass rush vs. Eagles offensive line

The Panthers and Eagles stack up fairly evenly against each other in big-play frequency and pace, while each team also boasts a top-10 run defense in adjusted line yards allowed per rush to complement their own top-10 offense.

The Eagles offensive line, however, is exploitable. It ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate and faces a Panthers defense that is one of nine units that have pressured the opposing quarterback on more than 50% of his dropbacks this season. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Panthers

The Panthers offense is practically 100% healthy, but the defense could be without starting cornerback Donte Jackson (groin).

The Eagles have an abundance of small injuries to worry about, as cornerback Jalen Mills (hamstring), right tackle Lane Johnson (ankle), cornerback Sidney Jones (hamstring), defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (calf) and running back Darren Sproles (hamstring) are looking shaky to play Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

Bets to watch: Panthers 1H +3 and Panthers full game +5

Both the Panthers and Eagles are pretty evenly matched when you look across the board, but one spot where I see an angle is Philadelphia’s front line trying to get pressure on Newton.

The Eagles are generating the third-lowest pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks this season, ahead of only the Raiders and Buccaneers. As The Action Network’s Anthony Amico wrote earlier this week, Cam doesn’t face pressure often (10th of 36 qualified quarterbacks), but when he does, it’s usually bad news.

Cam ranks 35th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in PFF Rating when under pressure this season. Over the past three seasons, he has six touchdown passes and 14 interceptions under pressure.

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) reacts in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium.
Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1).

Cam has worked from a clean pocket 69.3% of dropbacks this season (10th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks), and he has nine touchdowns with just one interception.

On top of this schematic advantage, Newton is 66-47-1 (58.4%) against the first half spread in his career and he has covered eight of his past 10 first halves coming off a SU loss.

Newton is off to an extremely efficient start overall; it’s been even better than when he won the MVP in 2015.

This is too much value for me to pass up with Carolina coming off a loss in what could be a low-scoring game. — Abrams


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.