Best Colts-Patriots TNF Player Props: Should You Bet on Josh Gordon to Reach 3.5 Receptions?

Best Colts-Patriots TNF Player Props: Should You Bet on Josh Gordon to Reach 3.5 Receptions? article feature image

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Gordon

  • There are two props offering betting value in the Thursday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots.
  • This piece will analyze the following prop bets: Patriots WRs Josh Gordon over/under 3.5 receptions and Chris Hogan over/under 41.5 receiving yards.

There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Indianapolis Colts-New England Patriots matchup on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NFL Network.

The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props, along with the tools at FantasyLabs.

>>Check out the FantasyLabs Prop Tool to see the 14 props for Thursday night’s Colts-Patriots matchup rated an 8 out of 10 or better. All odds referenced here are as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Patriots WR Josh Gordon

The pick: Under 3.5 receptions (-114 at BetOnline)

Gordon has value as a field-stretcher from a real football perspective, but with only 18 snaps in his Patriots debut, which accounted for 22% of New England’s offensive plays, it’s difficult to envision Bill Belichick increasing Gordon’s role on a short week.

Rob Gronkowski is expected to suit up, but even if he is at less than full strength, this game is shaping up to be a clear committee situation for Patriots pass-catchers.

The Colts defense has improved mightily already this season, currently ranking 11th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA compared to 23rd in 2017. They have also allowed the seventh-fewest targets per game (18.25) to the wide receiver position through four games.

Patriots WR Chris Hogan

The pick: Under 41.5 yards (-114 at 5Dimes)

The Colts have allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards in the NFL this year, and the unpredictable target share for the Patriots offense has given us yet another intriguing under play in the props market.

Hogan is a versatile guy, but he’s played only 49% of his snaps on the outside so far this season. With how well Phillip Dorsett has played in that role (79%), Hogan is not a lock to move directly outside, and his usage in the slot takes a major hit with the return of Julian Edelman on Thursday night.