The New York Giants (2-10) and New England Patriots (10-2) face off tonight on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will broadcast on ESPN.
The Patriots are favored by -7.5 on the spread over the Giants, with the over/under set at 46.5 points. The Patriots are -425 moneyline favorites while the Giants are +320 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview and Giants vs Patriots prediction.
Giants vs Patriots Prediction
- Giants vs Patriots pick: Giants +7.5 (bet to +7)
My Giants vs Patriots best bet is the Giants to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at DraftKings. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Giants vs Patriots Odds
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | +320 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 46.5 -112o / -108u | -425 |
Giants vs Patriots Monday Night Football Preview
Note: All data via FTN unless otherwise noted.
The Giants have a number of factors working in their favor entering tonight's game against the Patriots:
- Franchise QB Jaxson Dart is back after a two-game absence.
- Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen was fired.
- The entire left side of the Patriots' offensive line is out.
- Luck.
1. Jaxson Dart Equipped to Attack Patriots
Dart is 13th of 37 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and sits second among quarterbacks in total rushing EPA despite missing three games.
While Jameis Winston acquitted himself fairly well in close losses over the past two weeks, Dart is the type of quarterback you want based on the Patriots' defensive profile. They are …
- 27th in pass DVOA (22.9%)
- 16th in rush DVOA (-9.5%)
- 2nd in YPC to RBs (3.57)
- 16th in YPC on scrambles (7.6)
- 26th in YPC on designed QB runs (3.7)
Dart is attempting deep passes at the fifth-highest rate (14.2%), and the Patriots are 27th in defensive deep-pass DVOA (49.2%).
2. Shane Bowen Axed
Bowen was the Giants' very own version of the Witching Hour. He was so bad at calling games that he found a way to tie an NFL record for blown double-digit leads in a season.
Apparently Bowen's weekly preparation didn't consist of typical defensive football things, such as tackle drills or practicing against plays that you don't know are coming.
We have no idea whether newly elevated defensive coordinator Charlie Bullen will be any better or worse than Bowen, but there's more upside than downside, especially given that Bowen previously worked under Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel.
There could be some unrealized benefit to plugging in the unknown here. But even if not, the Giants gets at least somewhat of a reprieve due to…
3. Patriots O-Line Injuries
Left tackle Will Campbell (knee) and left guard Jared Wilson (ankle) went down last week. The Patriots will turn to Vederian Lowe at left tackle and Ben Brown at left guard to protect Drake Maye's blind side.
Campbell is the major loss. The No. 4 overall pick in 2025 was graded by PFF as the 19th-best pass-blocker and 30th-best tackle overall among 79 qualifiers.
Lowe is a 2022 sixth-rounder who was 51st in pass-blocking and 69th overall last season, and bottom-three in both metrics in 2023.
4. The Luck Factor
According to Nick Giffen, the Giants are one of the highest-graded sides of all time in our Luck Rankings with an A-graded 60.2% Luck-Based Cover probability.
Despite eight wins separating the Giants and Patriots, only six spots separate them in total DVOA: the 10-win Patriots are 17th and the two-win Giants are 23rd. That's largely due to a massive discrepancy in strength of schedule, with the Patriots facing the easiest schedule and the Giants facing the ninth-toughest slate.
The Patriots' point differential (+7.7) implies 8.3 wins, (though I always bake in some overachievement from Vrabel-coached teams).
The Giants' point differential (-5.8) implies they should have more than twice as many wins (4.4). And as I alluded to with Bowen, they absolutely should have more wins — four to be exact in the last six games alone:
- Week 7 at DEN: Led 26-8 in fourth quarter; lost 33-32
- Week 10 at CHI: Led 20-10 in fourth quarter; lost 24-20
- Week 11 vs. GB: Led 20-19 in fourth quarter; lost 27-20
- Week 12 vs. DET: Led 27-16 in fourth quarter; lost 34-27
We're seeing the luck start to even out in real time with the Giants severing ties with Bowen, the Patriots losing 40% of their O-line etc.
The Patriots are 5-2 in one-score games while the Giants are 1-6, and even if those trends don't reverse course, it does show that most of these teams' games have been close, putting the Giants in a good spot to cover the number.
Giants vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Analysis
Per our Action Labs data, underdogs facing favorites in December that have won at least 9-of-10 (like the Patriots) are 69-50-4 (58%) against the spread (ATS) since 2004.
When the favorite failed to cover in its prior matchup, like the Patriots (-7.5 vs. CIN, W 26-20), that mark improves to 45-29 (61%).
Pick: Giants +7.5
Spread
The Giants may only have two wins, but there are a number of factors underneath the surface that indicate they can cover the spread.
Moneyline
At 2-10 straight up (SU) but 7-5 ATS, the Giants have mastered the art of "lose but cover," so I'd rather take the points.
I would rather back the Giants moneyline live if they can go up early, as they'll likely still be big moneyline 'dogs based on the blown leads, but with the Patriots' O-line injuries and the Giants switching defensive coordinators, the Patriots may not be as adept at playing from behind and the Giants may not be as susceptible to blowing leads.
Over/Under
These are two quarterbacks who can throw downfield and two defenses that play a lot of single-high shell, which typically leads to overs, but the Pats' O-line injuries and Giants' DC change create uncertainty.
There is a slight chance of snowfall in the forecast but little wind to speak of, so the wet field would likely work to the benefit of the offenses in that scenario (they know where they're going; the defense doesn't).
