Dolphins vs. Bills Odds: Who is Favored? Is There Value?

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds

Despite all the Dolphins hype, the Bills are favorites for a massive tilt against Miami from Western New York on Sunday.

It's a fitting line, according to advanced metrics. Home field advantage, especially in Buffalo, is worth roughly two points to the spread. Add to it the fact that the Bills have the second-best defense and third-best offense, according to Expected Points Added per play (EPA/play) and the fact that they're the No. 1 team in the NFL, according to DVOA. Then you begin to understand empirically why this line is priced the way it is.

Yes, the Dolphins have a historically good offense. The best ever through three weeks (!), in fact, according to DVOA. But they have a middling — by some metrics, below average — defense, one that ranks near bottom against the run. And they have a league-worst special teams unit.

By the way, Miami's 70 point outburst against the Broncos? The Bills played a better overall game on Sunday — according to the advanced metrics — with the help of their defense, which took the ball away five times against the Commanders. Josh Allen stepped up with no mistakes on offense in putting up 37 points — even his one pick was an arm punt that pinned Washington inside their own 20 on 3rd-and-10.

If the Bills win the turnover battle — and kill the Fins on special teams — this could be the game that brings the Dolphins back down to earth.

And according to the Action Network's proprietary betting data, this matchup is a classic sharps vs. squares matchup.

The public, on the backs of recency bias, are all over the Dolphins to cover this matchup.About 65% of retail bettors are backing the Dolphins at +2.5 or +3.

Meanwhile, 78% of retail is on the Miami moneyline.

By contrast, only 35% of bettors are betting the Bills at -2.5. But 71% of the total money is on that line. That means a small group of sharps are betting big money — orders of magnitude more than your average retail bettor — on the Bills to win by three or more points on Sunday.

But there is a line that presents better value.

The Bills are expected to win the AFC East 50.2% of the time, according to DVOA. Our own internal data reaffirms that projection. That roughly translates to odds of -101. But the best market price at DraftKings at +165 implies a 37.75% chance that Buffalo wins their fourth straight AFC East title. That's a substantial 12.5% betting edge.

Of course, winning this game against the Dolphins is paramount — and you won't get paid out for this plus-money bet off the bat. There's something to be said about capital efficiency, too: you have to keep your money tied up for three months during a macroeconomic environment with 6% interest rates.

But edge is edge, at the end of the day. And giving up 12.5% — in this economy? — is untenable in the long run.