Best Eagles-Packers Prop Bets: Alshon Jeffery, More Thursday Night Football Picks
Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alshon Jeffery
- Thursday Night Football kicks off NFL Week 4 with a showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers (8:20 p.m. ET on FOX/NFL Network).
- This piece will focus on prop bets for Eagles RB Miles Sanders, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool, and last season those bets were profitable even with grades below 10:
- Unders with Bet Quality of 10: 152-57 (72.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 9: 183-123 (59.8% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 8: 413-256 (61.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 7: 627-474 (57.0% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 6: 1,005-697 (59.1% win rate)
Overall, unders in our tool hit at a 59.0% rate in 2018. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our props tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders
THE PICK: Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (+110)
The Eagles drafted Sanders with the 53rd overall pick in the draft, but they’ve still employed a committee backfield to start the season. Sanders leads the way with a 41.8% snap share through the first three weeks, but Darren Sproles (33.6%) and Jordan Howard (25.9%) are still very much in the picture.
Sanders has also struggled to establish himself in the passing game. He’s managed just 10 total target though the first three weeks, and he ranks merely sixth on the team in terms of targets per game. He exploded for 73 receiving yards in his last game, but he did it on just two catches. He managed just 11 total receiving yards in his first two games, so this is an excellent opportunity to sell high on him.
Sanders should continue to carve out a larger role with the Eagles, but there’s no guarantee that comes in the passing game. I like this prop at anything better than -115.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
THE PICK: Under 2 Passing TDs (-130)
The Packers are 3-0 heading into this contest, but it hasn’t been due to the stellar play from Rodgers.
He’s shown some signs of regression over the past few seasons, and he’s been pretty pedestrian by his lofty standards through the first three weeks. His average of 7.0 yards per attempt is tied for the lowest mark of his career since becoming the full time starter in 2008, and his 4.3% touchdown rate is a far cry from his career average of 6.1%. Overall, he’s earned just the 11th-highest grade at the quarterback position from Pro Football Focus through three weeks.
He’s faced some tough defenses to start the season, but he’s thrown two or fewer touchdowns in each of those contests. His matchup vs. the Eagles is much less intimidating — they rank just 22nd in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA — but it still seems unlikely that will get a vintage Rodgers performance.
This line is still treating Rodgers like an elite QB, but we haven’t seen that kind of performance from him over the past two seasons. I love the fact that we push on two touchdowns, so I’d play the under up to -145.
Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery
THE PICK: Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Packers’ secondary has developed into a unit that you need to fear. They currently rank third in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve limited opposing QBs to an average of 197.3 passing yards per game through their first three contests. They haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row in Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco, but those are still really impressive numbers.
Jaire Alexander in particular has been particularly impressive through his first three weeks. He currently ranks as the best cover corner in football per PFF. He shadowed Emmanuel Sanders in Week 3, lining up against him on 68.8% of his snaps, and limited Sanders to zero catches on three targets. Jeffery could get the same treatment this week, and he doesn’t figure to be 100% following a calf injury that caused him to miss Week 3.
Alexander is still developing the reputation as a corner you want to avoid, so let’s take advantage. I like the under up to -130.