3 Favorite Betting Picks for Eagles vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carson Wentz
Eagles at Packers Betting Odds
- Eagles Spread: +3.5
- Packers Spread: -3.5
- Eagles Moneyline: +171
- Packers Moneyline: -200
- Total: 46.5
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX/NFL Network
The Philadelphia Eagles carry a disappointing 1-2 record into Lambeau Field on Thursday night to face off against the 3-0 Green Bay Packers.
These two teams also have inverse records against the spread, with the Pack covering their first three and Philly joining the Dolphins as the only teams yet to cover.
So where’s the value on this 4-point spread?
Our experts reveal how they’re betting this primetime matchup, complete with three picks.
Odds above as of early Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
Thursday Night Football Expert Picks
Sonny Banks: Eagles +4
The market is starting to overvalue Green Bay, as evidenced by this spread moving from 3.5 to 4.5 early on.
The lookahead line for this game was Packers -2, and the market’s reluctance to back the Eagles after their unlucky loss to the Lions — combined with their injuries — pushed this to an inflated 4.5 earlier this week.
I moved on the 4.5, but would still take Eagles +4 as my projected line is 2.5.
Mike Randle: Packers -4
I’m gonna disagree with Sonny here.
The Eagles bring a struggling ground game, a myriad of injuries to key players and a poor pass defense to Lambeau Field on a short week to face a healthy Aaron Rodgers.
In addition to their wide receiver corps, the Eagles have been decimated by injuries on defense. They lost starting defensive tackle Malik Jackson (Lisfranc) for the season and will also be missing cornerback Ronald Darby and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan (broken foot).
They also face the Packers’ eighth-best defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA and must attack Green Bay through its weaker run defense — the problem is that the Eagles are averaging only 3.6 yards per carry with leading rusher Miles Sanders struggling the most (3.1 YPC).
Green Bay faces a tough Philadelphia run defense (fourth-best in run defense DVOA) but should find success against the Eagles’ 22nd-ranked pass defense. Without Darby, Davante Adams could have his 2019 breakout performance.
Look for the Packers’ secondary to limit Carson Wentz and their offense to set a fast pace in a comfortable win.
John Ewing: First-Half Under 23
Early in the season, it’s been profitable to bet first-half unders with high totals. This strategy works because offenses typically need a few games to hit their stride and it’s just easier for an under to hit in a high total game.
This system performs better when the full-game total has decreased by at least a half-point. The line decreasing is an indication of sharp action on the under. Since 2005, the under has gone 76-41-6 (65%) in this spot.
This first-half total is 23 points, making it a match for this system. The full-game total has also fallen from 48 to 46.