NFL Week 6 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Mailbag: Buy Keke Coutee, Sell Aaron Jones

Oct 12, 2018 4:48 PM EDT
  • Each week we crowdsource fantasy football start or sit questions on Twitter and by email.
  • Ryan Collinsworth answers four questions for Week 6, including whether to keep banking on Keke Coutee's breakout.

The New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions are on byes this week, which should result in roster shuffling for plenty of teams in redraft leagues.

So, the question many of us face for our deeper bench players is: Start or sit?

Each week we crowdsource fantasy football questions on Twitter at @ActionNetworkHQ and @ActionNetNFL, and by email at mailbag@actionnetwork.com. Remember to include your league settings (standard, PPR, superflex, etc.) in your question.

Thanks to everyone who reached out with questions for the Week 6 mailbag. Let’s jump into it.

Question: Russell Wilson vs. the Raiders in London? Not sure what to make of these international games…

@TheSamCady

The Seahawks and Raiders will both be making the 10-plus hour flight from the West Coast to London this weekend. In my analysis on cross-country travel using the FantasyLabs Trends tool, West Coast quarterbacks boasted improved fantasy production when traveling to the East Coast, and West Coast defenses declined markedly in Plus/Minus. The United Kingdom is obviously a bit farther than the Eastern United States, but those results might still be generalizable to the Seahawks-Raiders game in London. 

Additionally, using our Trends tool at Bet Labs, betting the over in games such as these has been a profitable strategy. In games featuring a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast with an over/under of at least 44.5, the over has gone 58-44-1, good for a 56.9% win rate.

Both of our trends suggest that this game could be poised for a shootout, which would benefit Wilson. Start him with confidence this week.


Question: Keke Coutee or Chris Carson in PPR flex?

@jeffdacfh

Start Coutee this week against the Bills.

After nursing a hamstring injury to start the season, Coutee exploded onto the scene over the past two weeks, posting per-game averages of 8.5 receptions for 80.0 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 11.0 targets. His two-week stat line results in 19.5 PPR points per game, which ranks 27th among all players and eighth among wide receivers.

His early season production, combined with his excellent college production at Texas Tech, has made him one of my top recommended waiver-wire targets for two straight weeks. He also draws a nice matchup this week against the Bills, who should deploy Tre’Davious White in shadow coverage on DeAndre Hopkins.


Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings

PPR: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Standard: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
Half-Point PPR: Flex | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/STK


Question: Mohamed Sanu or Chester Rogers in half-point PPR?

@Karlwitak

Sanu, and it’s not even close.

Sanu has averaged 8 targets and 92.0 yards in his past two games, and he draws a dream matchup against the Buccaneers’ putrid defense. How bad is the Bucs’ defense exactly?

*Takes deep breath *

Tampa Bay’s defensive ranks:

  • Last in the NFL in pass yards per game (358.0)
  • 31st in total yards per game (445.8)
  • Last in scoring defense (34.8 points per game)
  • Last in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA
  • Last in Defensive Pass DVOA

This is a smash spot for Sanu and the Falcons offense. Start him with confidence this week.

Question: Trade or keep Aaron Jones?

— @mourafarias21

Trade him.

Jones is likely the Packers’ best running back on the roster, but talent alone cannot make up for low usage. Last year, we experienced a similar phenomenon with Joe Mixon. Everyone could see Mixon was an uber-talented rookie, but the Bengals were reluctant to give him lead-back touches.

Jones finds himself in a similar situation. He boasts impressive rushing efficiency metrics, and he absolutely looks the part of a three-down feature back. However, we should not ignore the Packers’ frustrating deployment of a running back committee.

Moreover, there’s meaningful data to suggest continued low usage for Jones for the rest of the season. The Packers rank fourth in pass attempts per game (43.2) and just 26th in rush attempts (22.2). Of those 22.2 rush attempts, Aaron Rodgers accounts for 6.0 per game, leaving only 16.2 rush attempts for Jones, Jamaal Williams and Ty Montgomery to cannibalize.

Even if Jones wrestled away 50% of the Packers’ rushing workload, it still wouldn’t be enough to make Jones fantasy-relevant in that offense. Sell high on him now while public sentiment is fully in his favor.

Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Keke Coutee, Aaron Jones

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
ATL
NYG
-4.5
54
-4
54
WAS
DAL
-1
42
+1
41.5
CHI
NE
+2.5
50
+3
48.5
TB
CLE
-3
49.5
-3.5
51.5
JAC
HOU
-3.5
44
-4
41
NYJ
MIN
+3
47
+3.5
46
SF
LA
+10.5
53
+9.5
52
IND
BUF
-7
42.5
-7
43
LAC
TEN
-7
45.5
-6.5
45
ARI
DEN
+1
41
+1
42
MIA
DET
+2.5
47
+3
46.5
KC
CIN
-6
58.5
-6
58.5
PHI
CAR
-4.5
45
-5
44.5
BAL
NO
-2.5
51
-3
49.5