Jets-Titans Betting Preview: Is Tennessee Being Way Overvalued?

Betting odds: New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

• Spread: Titans -9
• Over/Under: 40.5
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: The line is moving against the Titans despite the Jets not even listing a starting quarterback.

Given the Titans' hit-or-miss tendencies, the public has not been willing to back them as more than a touchdown favorite regardless of who is getting the nod at QB for the Jets.

With 53% of bets and 69% of dollars as of writing (see live data here), New York has gone from +10.5 to +9 since opening. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The over/under opened at 41, the lowest on the slate. A majority of bets are on the under, but in non-division games with totals of 44 or fewer points with limited wind of 9 mph or less, the over has gone 636-513-21 (55%) since 2003 (per our Bet Labs data).

Check, check, check for Jets-Titans. — John Ewing

Officiating report: Jerome Boger will be the head official on Sunday. The over is 94-65-1 (59.1%) in the 160 games Boger has officiated over the past decade (including playoffs), making him by far the most profitable official to the over in that span.

The over is 9-2 in Boger officiated games this season, clearing the total by an average of 6.6 points. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Titans safeties and linebackers vs. Jets tight ends and running backs

Even after a disappointing Monday Night Football performance in Week 12, the Titans have the best expectations-adjusted defense in the league, limiting opponents to a scoring average 2.75 points fewer than their implied Vegas total.

In the midst of a five-game losing streak, the Jets have struggled to push the ball downfield, which means that if they're going to succeed against the Titans, the Jets will likely need their tight ends and running backs to outperform.

But the Titans are eighth in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA against tight ends and running backs, positions they’ve held to respective bottom-three marks of 35.5 and 28.2 yards receiving per game.

Although safeties Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro and linebackers Wesley Woodyard, Jayon Brown and Rashaan Evans have collectively allowed a 77.4% catch rate, their bend-don't-break defense has been effective. In 1,381 coverage snaps, they’ve allowed zero touchdowns.

The Jets might need big receiving games from tight end Chris Herndon and running backs Isaiah Crowell and Elijah McGuire, but they’re unlikely to get them. — Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Titans

The only Titans starter at risk of missing the game is linebacker Will Compton (hamstring). Everyone else on the injury report got in a full practice on Thursday.

The Jets aren't so lucky. The defense could be without safety Marcus Maye (shoulder, thumb) and linebacker Jordan Jenkins (shoulder).

The offense is an even bigger mess as quarterbacks Josh McCown (right hand, back) and Sam Darnold (foot) were limited all week, and the status of wide receivers Robby Anderson (ankle) and Andre Roberts (foot) remain uncertain.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Titans have periodically used Adoree' Jackson to shadow with mixed results. It's unclear if that'll be their gameplan with the statuses for both Darnold and McCown uncertain.

It'd make sense if the Titans treated Quincy Enunwa as the No. 1 receiver if it's Darnold is under center, and Anderson as the No. 1 if it's McCown. The problem with Anderson is his injury status.

Either way, Jermaine Kearse has a tough matchup in the slot against the Titans' true No. 1 cornerback Logan Ryan. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Titans -9

I know it's a big number — and I'd be lying to you if I said it was one of my favorite bets of the week — but the public is overreacting to a few things:

1. Tennessee got waxed by Indy two weeks ago.

2. Houston took the Titans to the woodshed on Monday Night Football.

But let's not forget: Indy is legitimately good and that was a classic road letdown spot for Tennessee, coming off back-to-back wins over the Cowboys and Patriots.

Also: Go take a peek at that MNF box score. Marcus Mariota went 22-of-23 for 303 yards and 2 TDs … and the Titans lost by 17.

Talk about a fluke.

They had a chance to go up 17-14 in the first half, but failed on a fourth-and-1 inside the 5 and proceeded to allow a 97-yard TD on the very next play.

Fourteen-point swing … and just like that, the game was over.

This seems like the perfect get-right spot for the Titans. They return home, where they're 3-1 against some quality competition (Texans, Eagles, Ravens, Pats). And they get to play the Jets, who are far from quality competition.

Both of New York's mediocre-at-best QBs are banged up, and it doesn't have the receiving weapons to take advantage of Tennessee's biggest weakness (pass defense).

This will be a small play for me, but I like Titans at anything below -10. I also think they make a decent teaser piece if you can get the spread under a FG without laying too much juice.

Be sure to shop around for the best number, as there are a bunch of -8s posted around the market at the time of writing. — Scott Miller

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.