Schwartz’s Trench Report: Vikings-Jets, Bills-Colts Highlight My Favorite Week 7 NFL Bets

Oct 19, 2018 10:14 PM EDT

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kirk Cousins

  • Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz offers his best bets based on the battles up front.
  • He's picking the over/under in two Week 7 games featuring poor offensive line matchups: Bills-Colts and Vikings-Jets.

I can’t believe how quickly this season is flying by. I’m not one to brag (yeah right), but I completely nailed the Chiefs-Patriots game in last week’s trench report. The Chiefs covered in a high-scoring affair that featured two teams with excellent offensive lines and run games.

So let’s pay close attention to the Week 7 report.

There’s been an offensive explosion in the NFL and scoring records might fall by the end of the season. So what do we do: Continue to pound the over (like most people will do), or try finding value in under plays?

There are two totals in games featuring poor offensive line matchups that I’m eyeing this weekend. Let’s start in Indianapolis.

>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

  • Spread: Colts -7
  • Over/Under: 43
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

The Bills are starting Derek Anderson, whom they signed last Tuesday.

I’ve played with a quarterback who was signed on a Tuesday and shortly thereafter started on a Sunday. And, to be fair, he was far worse than Anderson. But I don’t think that matters here.

Anderson wasn’t in camp. He’s new to the playbook. When he got into games with a good offensive line and run game in Carolina the past two seasons, he was below average.

Now mix in the Bills’ offensive line — which is fifth-worst in running back yards per carry (3.43) and dead-last in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate — along with their lack of offensive weapons, and this is a recipe for disaster.



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