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Schwartz’s Trench Report: Is It Finally Time to Fade the Chiefs? More Week 5 NFL Bets

Oct 05, 2018 12:00 AM EDT
  • Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz offers his best Week 5 bets based on the battles up front.
  • The Giants are tasked with stopping the league's best running quarterback. Can they do it?
  • And is it time to fade the Chiefs? Here are two picks against the spread for Sunday.

Now that we have a full four weeks of NFL results, including data and film, my weekly trench reports should take on some new life.

We’ll kick off the Week 5 edition with the Giants’ matchup at the Panthers, then look at whether it’s finally time to fade the red-hot Chiefs when the Jaguars visit Arrowhead on Sunday.


>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Thursday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

  • Spread: Panthers -6.5
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

There’s an individual matchup in this game that the Panthers should exploit for major yards and points. It’s the zone read.

We know it’s a staple of the Panthers offense with Cam Newton. Using the advanced filters at Sports Info Solutions, we can see that Newton has run the ball on a designed run or a zone read for 98 yards on 17 carries, good for 5.76 yards a pop. If we filter it even further, we see that Newton has kept the ball strictly on a zone read for 50 yards on six carries, good for 8.33 yards per carry.

Here’s an example of how Cam made some magic with his legs against the Cowboys in Week 1:

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Credit:

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs line of scrimmage

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@geoffschwartz
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