Our football staff is focused on six of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 17 on December 28.
First, we'll target Saints vs. Titans and Steelers vs. Browns in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Eagles vs. Bills and Giants vs. Raiders. We also have picks for Buccaneers vs. Dolphins, Bears vs. 49ers, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 17 Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 17
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Saints vs Titans
Since 2006, games in Week 16 or later with a closing total under 41 where both teams own a 35% win rate or lower (hello, Saints and Titans) and presumed tanking are 14-6 to the under (70%), with 13-of-20 (65%) at 35 or below, and almost half of those below 30.
The average final total of those 14 unders is just under 29 points per game: 39-35-35-34-33-32-32-32-29-23-23-22-20-14.
Translation: when it’s a tank-off, it often gets super duper ugly.
Mineshaft SZN: Under 37.5 (+112), Under 33.5 (+196), Under 30.5 (+300), Under 27.5 (+460), Under 23.5 (+870), Under 17.5 (+2000).
Pick: Under 37.5 (+112) + Alternate Unders
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Buccaneers vs Dolphins
Going back to the well on this one. This line is an overcorrection from what we saw happen last week against the Bengals.
Quinn Ewers made two critical mistakes last week against Cincinnati, one of which wasn’t even really his fault, as his interception bounced off a receiver and into the hands of the Bengals.
Quite frankly, it was Miami's defense that couldn’t hold up; I actually thought Ewers looked pretty crisp out there.
The Dolphins turned the ball over three times in the third quarter, which made the game look a lot uglier than it really was. All three turnovers led to touchdowns and put the game out of hand.
The Buccaneerss aren’t good right now, and there's no way they should be laying five points on the road.
Baker Mayfield has only had one positive EPA/play game since Week 7. The Bucs are also a bottom-10 offense since Week 7.
These teams aren’t all that far apart right now.
Flag planted. Give me the points with Miami.
Pick: Dolphins +5.5 (-110)
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Steelers vs Browns
By Bet Labs
The High Winds NFL system is built on how weather directly impacts offensive efficiency and scoring potential.
When average wind speeds climb into the double digits, passing games struggle with accuracy, kicking becomes unreliable, and play calling leans more heavily toward conservative runs. This naturally limits explosive plays and lowers scoring opportunities.
With temperatures sitting in a reasonable range that does not drastically impact player stamina or ball handling, wind becomes the defining variable.
Betting the under in these conditions takes advantage of how the market often undervalues the true effect of sustained wind on football outcomes.
Pick: Under 34.5 (-115)
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Eagles vs Bills
The Bills have a clear offensive advantage in this matchup. They rank fourth in dropback EPA/play and second in rush EPA/play.
James Cook has proven that he can be explosive on any given play — he leads the league in rushes over 10 yards (tied with De'Von Achane at 36).
These two teams have roughly equal pass defenses, but the Bills' rush offense is poised to control this game.
The Bills have an advantage on third down, ranking third in third-down EPA/play. Buffalo should take care of the Eagles in Week 17.
Pick: Bills Moneyline (-120)
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Giants vs Raiders
By Bet Labs
The NFL system titled "Fade Unpopular Favorites, Four Wins or Less the Year Prior" works on the premise that teams coming off a season with four or fewer wins lack the underlying strength to justify being installed as favorites even when the market leans slightly in their direction.
When these weak teams are favored in either the regular season or postseason and the betting splits show limited support it often reflects a false perception of improvement that has not yet materialized on the field.
Fading these favorites captures value by siding against teams that have not proven they can handle the role of favorite and are more likely to underperform against the spread despite modest market backing.
Pick: Raiders +2.5 (-110)
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Bears vs 49ers
The 49ers have a lot of things going for them in this matchup. They rank eighth in red-zone touchdown conversion rate, whereas Chicago ranks 16th. The Niners also rank second in third-down EPA/play; Chicago ranks ninth.
The 49ers are more efficient at moving the ball through the air, and the rush attacks for these two teams are comparable.
Brock Purdy will be spreading the ball early and often in this game, looking to expose a Chicago pass defense that is less than stellar. That will be the winning recipe for the 49ers.
Pick: 49ers -3 (-110)
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