Schwartz’s Trench Report: Picking Saints-Bengals, More Week 10 NFL Bets

Schwartz’s Trench Report: Picking Saints-Bengals, More Week 10 NFL Bets article feature image

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Brees in a huddle with the Saints

  • Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz offers his best Week 10 NFL bets based on the battles up front.
  • He's picking a side in the Redskins-Buccaneers, Saints-Bengals and Giants-49ers matchups.

Injuries are starting to derail offensive lines around the league, some in more permanent ways than others. And making matters worse is the lack of depth in the NFL. So when a player goes down, you rarely have anyone even capable of filling in adequately.

As such, I’ll be picking against three teams with major offensive line issues for Week 10, starting with one side of Saints-Bengals.

>> All odds as of 4 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals

  • Spread: Saints -6
  • Over/Under: 54
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

The Saints have played three straight emotional games and now head to Cincinnati with temperates forecasted in the high-30s and low-40s.

This feels like another emotional game.

Add in injuries for New Orleans, and yikes. All five starting offensive lineman were on the injury report this week, though all practiced fully on Friday. But even though they are reportedly expected to play, they won’t all be at full strength.

I don’t care so much about the Saints’ opponent if their O-line is banged up.

The Bet: Bengals +6

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Spread: Buccaneers -3
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

I’ve touted the Redskins’ offensive line and how its talent is better than the advanced numbers suggest.

Well, it currently has no talent.

Stud left tackle Trent Williams is out with a thumb injury, Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Scherff is out for the season and veteran left guard Shawn Lauvao is on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. Add in right tackle Morgan Moses (knee, questionable) not being at 100%, and it’s a complete disaster.

The Redskins actually have some depth on their offensive line. Ty Nsekhe is legit for a backup, which means they could have withstood an  injury to one tackle. But not to all of these guys.

So when you look at Washington’s injuries upfront, it doesn’t matter that Tampa Bay’s entire defense isn’t terribly great.

The Redskins shouldn’t have a chance on the road with their mash unit upfront.

The Bet: Buccaneers -3

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

  • Spread: 49ers -3.5
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday
  • TV channel: ESPN

The 49ers might be starting third-string quarterback Nick Mullens, but their offensive line has carried this offense, ranking ninth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards and second in rushes between five and 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Their pass protection can leave something to be desired at times, but they are playing a Giants front that’s without its best run-stuffer and enters this matchup with 10 total sacks, the second-lowest in the league. So, yeah, the Niners will move the ball.

On the flip side, the Niners’ defensive line is seventh in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate and stuff rate, and eighth in limiting big plays on the ground.

Meanwhile, the Giants’ offensive line isn’t good. We know that. The unit is last in adjusted line yards and 28th in sack rate. It’s a mess.

Give me the Niners here.

The Bet: 49ers -3.5

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