NFL Week 7 Forecast: High Winds Expected in Many of Sunday’s Games

Oct 21, 2018 8:20 AM EDT
Credit:

Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens Quarterback Joe Flacco.

  • Nine of Sunday's 12 games feature wind speeds of at least 10 mph, led by Panthers-Eagles game (1 p.m. ET on FOX) at 16 mph.
  • Using our Bet Labs software, we look at the most profitable ways to bet on windy unders.

We have a blustery weekend of football ahead of us, folks. This Saturday, college football is going to be overtaken by Mother Nature. Mom always says, “Don’t play ball in the house.”

She’d much rather have you play outdoors where the elements can wreak havoc. The windy forecast doesn’t stop on Saturday, as Sunday will also feature high winds across the nation.

Let’s hope we see a lot of this …

By the way, that game closed with the lowest over/under ever in our database at a measly 30! Average wind speeds were 28 mph, making it the sixth-windiest game we have on record.

Here are the games currently expected to have average wind speeds of at least 10 mph:

  • Vikings at Jets: 16 mph – O/U 46.5 to 46
  • Panthers at Eagles: 15 mph – O/U 45 to 44.5
  • Texans at Jaguars: 14 mph – O/U 43 to 41
  • Saints at Ravens: 13 mph – O/U 50.5 to 50
  • Cowboys at Redskins: 12 mph – O/U 42
  • Browns at Bucs: 12 mph – O/U 49 to 50.5
  • Bengals at Chiefs: 11 mph – O/U 58.5 to 57.5
  • Lions at Dolphins: 10 mph – O/U 47
  • Patriots at Bears: 10 mph – O/U 50 to 48.5

Historical under win rate at 10 mph or higher: 55.4%

You can also use Bet Labs to find out which windy spots are more profitable than others.  One of the simplest ways to increase the win percentage is by looking at whether the two teams are in the same conference or division.

Unders have hit in 56.5% of conference games compared to 52.1% in non-conference games. Four of this week’s nine windy games are conference affairs.

Even better are games played between divisional opponents. These have gone under 58.9% of the time. Something to keep in mind as an interesting nugget is that divisional games have gone under 52.7% of the time regardless of the weather.

One other way you can increase profits in the long run is to make sure you don’t play a bad number. Games in which the total has dropped by more than one point have gone under at just a hair over 50% of the time, which is not profitable.

On the other hand, games with totals that have dropped no more than one point or games in which the total has actually increased end up under 57.3% of the time.

You can get the real GOAT system by adding these two things together.

Divisional games with 10+ mph winds in which the total has not dropped by 1.5 points have gone under 61.6% of the time.

The over/under in Jacksonville just dropped an additional point on Friday morning, making it fall out of this system for the time being.

However, Dallas-Washington is sitting pretty at the opening total of 42.

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