Best Packers-Patriots SNF Player Props: The Rodgers, Brady Bets with Value

Nov 04, 2018 12:00 PM EST
  • There are two props offering value for Sunday Night Football's Green Bay Packers-New England Patriots matchup (8:20 p.m. ET).
  • Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and Patriots QB Tom Brady both have props that are offering value on SNF.

We’ve been treated to a succession of phenomenal match-ups on Sunday evenings of late, and this one may top them all.

It’s Brady vs. Rodgers, and that’s where our focus lies in this as we examine the best player props, although we’re not targeting the passing or TD totals for either QB.

Last week was good to us. We went 26-4-1 over at Bet the Prop, and 7-0 in our article picks for The Action Network .

Here are the records on the year:

Let’s get to a few props with value for Sunday Night Football.

All odds as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Sunday


Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-130 @ 5 Dimes)

The passing props for these two legends don’t provide much value, but look for Rodgers to gain some ground with his legs.

As he puts his Week 1 injury farther in the rearview mirror, Rodgers has started to run more, averaging three rushes for 20 yards over his past four games.

The Patriots make a perfect target; they’ve surrendered 24.4 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, third-most in the league.

While New England did hold the fleet-footed Patrick Mahomes to nine yards on two carries, they’ve been diced by others:

  • Mitchell Trubisky: 81 yards
  • Deshaun Watson: 41 yards
  • Blake Bortles: 35 yards

I’d play this number to 15.5 (-120). 


Patriots QB Tom Brady

No Interception Thrown (-140 @ 5 Dimes)

The Props Tool also likes the under on 2.5 TDs for Brady, and that makes a fine play, but I’m betting on the Patriots QB turning in a clean slate in the turnover department.

While Brady has just three games with zero interceptions on the year, the Packers don’t present much of a challenge in that department.

  • With five interceptions in seven games, the Packers have the 10th-fewest picks in the league.
  • Three of those five interceptions came at the hands of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who the Packers traded to Washington this week.

With Clinton-Dix gone, the remaining Green Bay defenders have managed just two picks between.  It’s a blow to the Packers secondary, but it bodes well for Brady, who should be able to spread it around with impunity.

If you don’t like this bet, I’d play the under on Brady TDs instead.

There’s already plenty of juice on this bet at -140, and I would not be willing to pay any higher.

Credit:

Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

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OPEN
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# BETS
45
+3
45
+4
41
-9.5
40.5
-7
59
-14.5
60
-13
47
+9.5
46.5
+9.5
43.5
-11
43
-10.5
46.5
-7
46
-6
54
-3
55
-3
48
-3
47.5
-3
47
-3
47.5
-3
38
+3
37.5
+3
44
-13
45
-12
51
-10
51
-10
47.5
+3.5
47
+3
48.5
-4.5
48
-3
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