The NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 18 of the 2025 season.
As this is the last week of the regular season, the Luck Rankings aren't used with so many teams resting players and having various motivation levels. However, the Luck Rankings do apply for the playoffs so it's important to see the final regular season Luck Rankings.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
When the Luck Score in a game is 1.454 or higher, unlucky teams are 169-121-7 against the closing spread — the hardest line to beat. That equates to a 58.3% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 290 games!
In Week 17, the unlucky teams went 2-1 against the spread (ATS). That moved luck-based sides to 26-22 (54.2%) ATS on the year. In these 48 games, the unlucky team has covered by an average of 0.9 points. This marks the third out of four years that the Action Network Luck Ranking sides finish the regular season with a profitable record, doing so as well in 2022 and 2023 before its first losing season last year.
Luck Totals went 2-0 on the week. Both weak Luck Unders stayed under the closing total. Overall, that puts weak Luck Totals at 18-17 (51.4%) while strong Luck Totals end the regular season 4-6 (40%). This marks the first year luck-based totals did not have a profitable regular season after profiting each year from 2022-2024.
Overall, strong totals and sides have a 30-28 (51.7%) record in 2025, and all luck sides and totals have a 48-45 record (51.6%).
Here's how our final regular season NFL Luck Rankings shake out.
NFL Week 18 Final Regular Season Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets, while the opposite may be true for unlucky teams.
