Packers-Patriots Betting Preview: Who Will Be the GOAT on SNF — Rodgers or Brady?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady
Betting odds: Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
- Spread: Patriots -5
- Over/Under: 56.5
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV channel: NBC
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: After opening at +7, the Packers moved to +6.5 in just one minute. About 45 minutes later they moved to +6, and an hour after that, they moved to +5.5.
With most folks missing out on those numbers, the Patriots are receiving almost 60% of bets as of writing (see live data here). I expect the line to hit -6 again, but I highly doubt we see the Patriots move back to -7. — Mark Gallant
Weather report: Temperatures will be in the high 30s, but Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are both used to playing in much worse. Winds will barely be blowing at all, with the anemometer reading just a few mph. — Gallant
Trends to know: When the Patriots have played at least two consecutive road games, Brady has excelled in his first game back at Foxborough, going 28-4 straight up and 20-11-1 against the spread, according to our Bet Labs data.
Only four quarterbacks have defeated Brady in this spot: Brett Favre (2002), Peyton Manning (2006), Drew Brees (2005) and Russell Wilson (2016). — Evan Abrams
Did you know? Brady and Rodgers are known as the best quarterbacks in the NFL … bar none.
Below is how they stack up ATS over their careers. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Brady vs. Packers’ safeties
After trading Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix to the Redskins, the Packers no longer have a safety on the roster who is ranked higher than 86th at the position in Pro Football Focus’ grades.
The Packers also rank 23rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against deep passes, and have little experience on the back end, with third-year man Kentrell Brice being the eldest statesman.
With a movable chess piece in James White and a full complement of wide receivers including Josh Gordon, this is surely a situation Bill Belichick and Brady will look to exploit. — Chris Raybon
Which team is healthier? Packers
The only notable Packers thought to be at risk of missing Sunday’s game are center Corey Linsley (knee), right tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee), linebacker Nick Perry (ankle) and safety Jermaine Whitehead (back).
Meanwhile, the Patriots have listed half their team as injured (per usual). But left tackle Trent Brown (ankle), Gronkowski (ankle, back), linebacker Dont’a Hightower (knee), right guard Shaq Mason (calf), right tackle Marcus Cannon (concussion) and running back Sony Michel (knee) seem legitimately banged up.
DFS edge: Davante Adams has been on an absolute tear over his past three games, hanging at least 130 receiving yards on the Lions, 49ers and Rams while finding the end zone three times.
Life as Rodgers’ No. 1 target has been predictably productive, but Adams will have his hands full with No. 1 Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
PFF’s No. 4 overall corner has made life rough for DeAndre Hopkins (8-78-0), Sammy Watkins (2-18-0) and Allen Robinson (1-4-0) so far this season.
Bet to watch: Patriots -5
Brady said that if Rodgers had the Patriots’ offensive system and exhaustive knowledge of opposing defenses, Rodgers would “throw for 7,000 yards every year.”
“He’s so much more talented than me,” Brady said. While that might be true, it’s not the reality we live in.
Bettors have moved this line from New England -7 to -5. Since 2013, when the spread has moved against TB12 in the regular season, the Patriots are 61-36-5 (63%) ATS. When this has happened in home games, the record improves to 31-14-3 (69%) ATS.
Don’t overthink this one. — John Ewing
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.