Welcome to Week 18! We have four division titles up for grabs this week, with all 32 teams in action for the last time this season. Win totals, incentives, props and more to finish off one of the wildest regular seasons in recent memory.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 18 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, December 30, at 2 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Expect The Unexpected
On The Brink
If the Ravens lose on Sunday Night Football to the Steelers — eliminating them from the playoffs — we would see a very rare playoff field, without some heavy hitters.
With a Ravens loss…
• We would see three teams inside the top-5 in preseason odds to win the Super Bowl out of the playoffs (BAL, KC, DET). First time that has happened since 2018.
• We would see two teams that entered the season with under 10-1 odds to win the Super Bowl out of the playoffs (BAL, KC). First time that has happened since 2017 and sixth time since 2000. It would also be just the 4th time since 2000 that happened for two teams in the same conference: 2017 (SEA/GB), 2014 (NO/SF) and 2001 (TEN/DEN).
• We would see two teams who entered the season with 11+ win totals miss the playoffs (BAL, KC). First time that has happened since 2000 with Washington and the Jaguars.
We currently have four division titles still up for grabs and so far, the only preseason favorite to win their division is the Eagles. If the Steelers, Jaguars, Panthers and Seahawks all win their respective divisions, it would be the fewest preseason favorites to be crowned champs since 2008.
Incentive Season
2025 NFL Bonuses, Records & Milestones
Incentive season has reached its peak. Here is a comprehensive list of bonuses, records, milestones and more for all 32 NFL teams updated daily through Week 18.
Dog Day Afternoon
Panthers Going For 9
All 8 of the Panthers' wins this season have come as underdogs — their 8th win as a dog is tied for the most by any team in the Super Bowl era – a record they could break this week against the Bucs.
Tampa Bay's 8-game ATS losing streak is their longest as a franchise since 1982-83 and their longest in a single season in franchise history.
A Night To Remember
For The West
The 13-3 Seahawks and the 12-4 49ers play Saturday night for the NFC West crown. Since 1990, this will be just the second Week 17 or 18 divisional matchup in which both teams have a 75%+ win percentage. The other? Last year's Vikings and Lions Week 18 game, also featuring Sam Darnold, won by the Lions.
49ers famously now do not need to leave San Francisco to win the Super Bowl if they keep winning. They did last week vs. Bears, now again this week against the Seahawks.
At home, Brock Purdy is 19-8 SU in his career, including 11-3 SU in December or later and 5-0 SU in January or later.
Dog Eat Dog Series
Back To The Roots
Since 2005, the underdog in this series is 30-12-3 ATS (71%). In the regular season, the underdog is 25-7-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh.
In the regular season, when the line is three or more points, the underdog is 24-5-3 ATS in that span. As an underdog against the Ravens, Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 ATS as head coach of the Steelers.
Early Fireworks
First Half Overs
First half overs have been the bet for the Cowboys this year. They are 15-1 to the first half over, which is the best mark for any team in the last 30 years.
Out Of Nowhere
Tight Race
New Orleans’ 1st 4-game SU win streak, with a 5-game ATS win streak since 2020. Saints are the first team since 1990 to have a 4+ game SU win streak, with a 5+ game ATS win streak and still have a season win pct below 40%.
Tyler Shough entered the season at 60-1 odds to win OROY and was between 200-1 and 300-1 to win the award before making his first start. Now, with one week to go, Shough is basically dead-even with Tet McMillan for the award.
Dating back to 2009, no player has won OROY or DROY with listed odds above 50-1. In 2017, Marshon Lattimore won the award without odds entering the year, which would qualify for this short list.
The Jacksonville Wall
Great Rush D
Jacksonville is the only team in the NFL not to allow any player to rush for 75+ yards in a single game this season.
This season, Jacksonville has faced a RB who had a rush yd prop of 60+ eight times and those RBs are 8-0 to the under.
The Great Outdoors
Miami In The Cold
In outdoor games in under 40 degrees, Mike McDaniel is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS, losing those six games by 10.6 PPG. Overall, Miami has lost 13 games in a row outright in under 40 degree temperatures, with their last win coming back in 2016 in Buffalo behind Adam Gase and Matt Moore at QB.
Drake Maye has New England playing well as a big favorite. As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Maye is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. As a double-digit favorite, Maye is 2-0 SU/ATS.
Who Has It Better Than Us?
Great vs. Division
With the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh is 10-0-1 ATS vs. AFC West over the last two seasons, the best mark of any coach in the NFL. No other coach has even 3+ wins without a loss vs. their own division in that span.
Denver’s 2-9 ATS mark as a favorite is the worst in the NFL this year. If Denver finishes 2-10 ATS as a favorite entering the playoffs, it would be the worst mark for any team since 1990 and tie the 1989 Washington team for the last 2-10 ATS team as a favorite during the regular season.
Dog Hunting
Late Season Magic
In Weeks 17 and 18, underdogs of over a full TD (+7.5 or more) are 16-53 SU on the moneyline over the last decade. A $100 bettor would be up $669 for a ROI of +9.7%. They have been profitable in three straight seasons and in 7 of the last 10 seasons over that span.
Win Total Time
In The Balance
28 of the 32 NFL win totals have been decided entering Week 18. Here are the four teams in the balance with one week to go:
Eagles: 11.5 (11 wins) vs. Commanders
Cowboys: 7.5 (7 wins) at Giants
Dolphins: 7.5 (7 wins) at Patriots
Browns: 4.5 (4 wins) at Bengals
Every NFL Game For Week 18
 |  | |  |   |   |  |  |   |   |   |  |   |   |  |   | |
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
CAR: 1) If win vs. TB, win NFC South and 4 seed or 2) If ATL beats NO
TB: 1) If win vs. CAR and NO beats ATL gets 4 seed
➤Entering their Week 16 matchup, Baker Mayfield was 5-0 SU vs. Panthers, but suffered his first loss against Carolina in that game.
Baker is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) at home vs. Panthers in his career, tied for his best mark SU at home vs. any team (also 3-0 SU vs. Bengals).
➤In Bryce Young’s short career, he is 4-9 SU when facing an opponent the Panthers beat in their previous meeting, losing by 6 PPG in those matchups – but 3 of those 4 outright wins for Bryce have all come this season (3-2 SU in those games).
➤Home games have never been Baker’s forte. He is .500 ATS or worse in all eight of his seasons as a starting QB. Overall, Baker is 22-36-1 ATS at home.
In the last 20 years, that 22-36-1 ATS mark at home is the 2nd-worst from a profit standpoint for 248 total QBs, ahead of just Jay Cutler.
Against opponents in his own division, Baker is 5-14 ATS at home, including 2-12 ATS since 2020.
➤When a Todd Bowles-coached team is fighting for a playoff position, it hasn’t been pretty.
When his team has a win pct between 40% and 60% at any point in the season, they are 25-37 SU, losing a $100 bettor $2,168, by far the worst mark of any head coach since 2005.
➤Bryce Young is coming off one of the historically bad passing games in recent history.
He had 54 passing yards on 14-24 passing with an interception. That's the fewest yards by a QB with 24+ pass attempts since David Woodley back in 1980.
Bryce had 4 pass attempts even 7+ yards downfield in the game – he went 0-4, with the INT and Carolina had a long reception of 8 yards and a long rush of just 11 yards in the game vs. Seahawks.
After Carolina had thrown for 150 yds or less in their previous game and then had a spread of either a favorite or a dog of under 6 pts, they are just 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS in their next game.
Since 2019 though, teams after throwing for 75 yds or less – a real bad performance have gone 17-14 ATS in their next game, a slight bump.
➤A theme Carolina probably doesn’t like, but it might be a good thing they are underdogs this week.
This season, Panthers are 8-6 SU as underdogs and 0-2 SU as favorites.
All 8 of the Panthers wins this season have come as underdogs — their 8th win as a dog is tied for the most by any team in the Super Bowl era – a record they could break this week.
➤Bucs run game was non-existent last week, posting just 53 yards, including Bucky Irving, who went for 19 yards on 9 carries. Since Bucky returned from injury, he has yet to eclipse 4 yards per carry in any game.
This season, Bucs have had 75 yds or less on the ground in two other games – and they came out and won and covered in their next game both times.
➤This season, Carolina is 7-0 ATS after a SU loss, covering the spread by 11.8 PPG, the most wins without a loss ATS for any team this season.
Since 1990, no team has finished a regular season 8-0 ATS or better after SU loss; Carolina could do that this week.
When Carolina is off a win this year, they are just 2-6 ATS in their next game, failing to cover the spread by 8.5 PPG.
➤Panthers enter this game -67 in point differential this season. If they win the division this week, they would join a small group of teams to win the division with that bad a point differential:
-50 or More Pt Differential, Division Champs
2010 Seahawks: -97
2011 Broncos: -81
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
CAR:
Rico Dowdle, RB, Panthers: Needs 7 scrimmage yards for a $1,000,000 incentive.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Panthers: Needs 1 TD for a $250,000 incentive.
Sam Martin, P, Panthers: Needs 42.0 net punt avg (40.6) for a $200,000 incentive.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Panthers: Needs 71 receiving yards to get to 1,000 on the season.
TB:
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Buccaneers: Needs 70 receiving yards to get to 1,000 on the season.
Sterling Shepard, WR, Buccaneers: Needs 29 receiving yards for a $125,000 incentive.
Sterling Shepard, WR, Buccaneers: Needs 1 reception for a $125,000 incentive.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
SF: If beat SEA, wins NFC West and is 1 seed
SEA: If beat SF, wins NFC West and is 1 seed
➤We meet again. The Seahawks and 49ers last met in Week 1 this season, with the 49ers winning 17-13 on the road in Seattle.
This is a series that has been dominated by San Francisco recently. They are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 matchups vs. Seattle – but the 49ers actually lost their last home game vs. the Seahawks back in Week 11 last season.
➤This will be the 4th time Sam Darnold faces a Kyle Shanahan-led team in his career as a starter, going 1-2 SU/ATS, being listed as an underdog in all three of his previous meetings, with all three of those games actually coming at home for Darnold, with this being his first road start vs. Shanahan.
In 3 starts, Darnold’s teams have scored a total of 49 pts, including 13 pts in two of the games.
In Darnold’s 34 starts since the start of last season, he has faced SF twice. His passing success rate in those games were 37.5% and 41.4%, the 7th and 10th worst marks for him in that span.
➤When the 49ers are good, it’s unusual for them to be home underdogs this late in the season.
In December or later, when San Francisco has a win pct of 75% or better, they have only been a home underdog once since 1990: 2011-12 playoff game vs. Drew Brees and Saints, a game SF won 36-32.
➤Brock Purdy has made seven career starts against the Seahawks in his career. He is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in those games – his most SU wins and ATS wins against any opponent.
In 7 career starts, Purdy has been listed as a favorite vs. Seattle in all seven. As a favorite of 4 pts or less vs. Seahawks, the 49ers are 3-0 SU/ATS, with all those wins coming on the road.
At home vs. the NFC West though, Purdy has lost 3 in a row outright, including his last 4 ATS.
➤49ers famously now do not need to leave San Francisco to win the Super Bowl if they keep winning. They did last week vs. Bears, now again this week against the Seahawks.
At home, Brock Purdy is 19-8 SU in his career, including 11-3 SU in December or later and 5-0 SU in January or later.
Since 2003, Purdy’s 5-0 SU mark at home in January or later is the most wins without a loss for any QB in the NFL. Joe Flacco and Joe Burrow are both 4-0 SU in that spot.
➤49ers offensive weapons are streaking.
Jauan Jennings has been red hot lately. He has a TD in 5 straight games, which is 1 TD shy of tying Terrell Owens’ streak of 6 straight games for the longest for a 49ers WR in a single season since 2000. The longest streak is by Jerry Rice with 12 in 1987.
Christian McCaffrey also now has a TD in 6 straight games. They are the first 49ers duo both with a 5+ game TD streak at the same time since the merger.
➤Darnold has been great as a big favorite. He is now 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS as a favorite of 6 pts or more. But how do his teams do after that game?
Since joining the Vikings in 2024, they are 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in the game after being a 6+ point favorite.
➤49ers games have been a high-scoring affair lately. They have gone over the total by 28.5 pts, 28.5 pts and 16.5 pts in their last three games.
They are just the 6th team in the last five years to have a 3-game stretch where they went over the total by 16+ pts in each game – those previous five teams went 0-5 ATS in their next game after that high-scoring stretch.
2025 Bengals, 2024 Bucs, 2021 Packers, 2021 Jets, 2021 Commanders
➤Brock Purdy is used to blowing opponents out. Purdy now had 30 total wins SU in his career. 23 have been by double-digits. No other NFL QB with at least 25 wins has had three-quarters of them come by double digits since 1950.
When the 49ers are coming off a game they don’t win by double-digits since the start of 2023, they are just 8-12 ATS when Purdy starts.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
SEA:
Uchenna Nwosu, EDGE, Seahawks: Needs 0.5 sack for a $1,000,000 incentive.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks: Needs 3 pass TD for a $500,000 incentive.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks: Needs 100 pass rtg (99.2) for a $500,000 incentive.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks: Needs 67.5 comp% (67.2) for a $500,000 incentive.
Sam Darnold, QB, Seahawks: Needs 150 pass yds for 4,000 on the season.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks: Needs 70 rush yds to get to 1,000 on the season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks: Needs 289 rec yds to get to 2,000 on the season
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks: Six receptions behind McBride and Puka for NFL receptions lead (Chase 4 ahead, too).
SF:
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers: Needs 4 receptions to be 3rd SF with 100+ single season.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers: Needs 110 receiving yards to be 2nd player w/ 1k rush & 1k rec
Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers: Needs 2 touchdowns to reach 100 for his career.
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers: Needs 9 receptions for a $666,667 incentive.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤The Saints are streaking. They’ve won 4 straight outright and they’ve now covered 5 in a row.
New Orleans’ 1st 4-game SU win streak, with a 5-game ATS win streak since 2020.
Saints are the first team since 1990 to have a 4+ game SU win streak, with a 5+ game ATS win streak and still have a season win pct below 40%.
➤Saints are simply a different team with Tyler Shough starting at QB this season.
Overall, Saints are 6-10 SU and 8-8 ATS this season, but 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS when Shough starts and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS when he doesn’t (all games started by Spencer Rattler).
➤With the Falcons coming off a Monday Night Football game vs. Rams, they are on short rest this week. In Atlanta, Raheem Morris is actually 4-2 SU/ATS on short rest, winning and covering their last two such games at home.
➤At the end of the 1st quarter last week, the Saints trailed the Titans 6-0, making them 2-14 1Q ATS this season, worst mark in the NFL, and they have yet to actually win a 1st quarter outright, sitting at 0-13-3 1Q moneyline entering this week.
Teams are 7-1 ATS in the 1st Quarter when hosting the Saints this season.
Since 2020, the worst 1Q ATS mark goes to the 2021 Packers, who went 2-15 1Q ATS, a mark the Saints could tie this week.
➤Atlanta has beaten the Saints in two straight meetings at home entering this matchup – you have to go all the way back to 1995-99 to find the last time the Falcons won 3 straight at home in Atlanta vs. New Orleans.
In 9 career starts against the Saints in Kirk Cousins’ career, he is 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS, and almost every one has been a battle. At home or neutral field vs. Saints, Kirk is 1-3 ATS.
➤With the Saints struggling so badly in the first half – where they are 4-12 1H ATS, tied with the Bills for the worst mark in the NFL.
New Orleans is also 12-4 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any team. They’ve covered five straight 2nd halves entering this week, with Tyler Shough 6-2 2H ATS in his early career.
➤What a run and story Tyler Shough is having in New Orleans. Shough missed the first 7 games of the season for the Saints before getting the start in Week 8.
Shough entered the season at 60-1 odds to win OROY and was between 200-1 and 300-1 to win the award before making his first start. Now, with one week to go, Shough is basically dead-even with Tet McMillan for the award.
Dating back to 2009, no player has won OROY or DROY with listed odds above 50-1. In 2017, Marshon Lattimore won the award without odds entering the year, which would qualify for this short list.
➤The Falcons have never been able to produce a QB who covers the spread. Since 2003, Atlanta has had 13 QBs start a game for them; only two are above .500 ATS, and barely.
Best ATS Win Pct – Falcons QBs Since 2003
Michael Vick – 26-24-2 ATS
Marcus Mariota – 7-6 ATS
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
ATL:
Kirk Cousins, QB, Falcons: Needs 3 pass TD to get to 300 in his career.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons: Needs 55 rush yds to get to 1,500 on the season.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons: Needs 255 scrimmage yds to break Christ Johnson's single-season record.
Drake London, WR, Falcons: Needs 159 receiving yds to get to 1,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤The Browns are coming off a SU win against the Steelers last week.
Since the start of last year, Cleveland is 0-6 ATS after a SU win, failing to cover the spread by 11.4 PPG in that span – the 0-6 ATS mark is the most losses without a win of any team in that span.
➤The Browns and Bengals met in Week 1 this season and now meet in Week 18.
Entering this matchup, the Bengals have beaten the Browns outright in four straight matchups since the calendar flipped to 2024, including three straight home game wins for Cincinnati against Cleveland.
Under Zac Taylor, Cincinnati is 4-2 SU at home and 2-5 SU on the road when facing the Browns.
➤Against divisional opponents, Taylor and the Bengals are just 17-25 SU, under .500 SU against all three AFC North teams:
6-7 vs. Browns
6-8 vs. Steelers
5-10 vs. Ravens
➤Joe Burrow started his career 0-4 SU and 1-5 SU against the Browns. Entering this week, he has beaten Cleveland in three straight meetings,
At home vs. Browns, Burrow is 3-1 1H ATS, on the road where he has struggled more in Cleveland, he is 1-4 1H ATS.
➤With Burrow, Zac Taylor is 48-34-1 SU. With any other QB starting under center, Taylor and the Bengals are just 9-30 SU.
Against AFC North opponents, he is just 13-15 SU with Burrow and 4-10 SU with all other QBs.
Since his last playoff appearance, Burrow is just 19-15 SU as a starter, including just 8-8 SU at home.
➤AFC North games haven’t been friendly to Kevin Stefanski and the Browns. Stefanski is 12-22 ATS vs. his own division. Since 2000, Stefanski is the only head coach 10+ games under .500 ATS vs. his own division.
➤A big win for the Browns last week, but also for Stefanski. In Weeks 16-18, Stefanski is now 6-10 SU and he broke a 5-game losing streak in those weeks vs. Steelers last week.
➤Myles Garrett is still fighting his way for the sack record, where he needs just a half sack to tie and a full sack to break the single-season record.
Last week, Garrett was held sackless with the Steelers chipping him a ton compared to previous weeks.
You have to go all the way back to Week 8 of last season to find the last time the Browns won a game where Myles had no sacks. In his next game after that win, he had 3 sacks in the loss.
In total, Myles has faced the Bengals in 13 total games in his career, he has at least a 0.5 sack in 11 of those 13 games, including all six road games in Cincinnati.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
CLE:
Myles Garrett, EDGE, Browns: Needs 0.5 sack for single-season record.
David Njoku, TE, Browns: Needs 3 receptions to move into 2nd all-time for the Browns.
CIN:
Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Bengals: Needs 1 sack for a $250,000 incentive.
Chase Brown, RB, Bengals: Needs 53 rushing yards to get to 1,000 on the season.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Bengals: Trails Trey McBride and Puka Nacua by 2 receptions for NFL lead entering Week 18.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
GB: 1) plays CHI in playoffs with a CHI win or PHI loss, 2) plays PHI in playoffs with PHI win and CHI loss
GB is locked into the 7 seed
➤Vikings are a big home favorite vs. Packers this week. At any line of 6 or more, this would be the Vikings biggest favorite vs. GB since 2017 when they closed -8.5 on the road in Green Bay when Case Keenum started against Brett Hundley.
Minnesota hasn’t closed at -6 or higher at home vs. GB since 2000, a game Daunte Culpepper started against Brett Favre as an 8-pt favorite, where Minnesota lost outright.
➤Vikings have been hot lately. Since Dec. 1, the Vikings are both 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS and 4-0 1H ATS, covering the 1H spread by 5.8 PPG. They are the only team in the NFL undefeated in all three categories since December 1st.
➤Packers are 6-10 ATS entering Week 18 – this is their worst ATS start through 16 games of a season since they went 5-9-2 ATS in 2005. This is the first time Green Bay has had 10+ ATS losses in their first 16 games since 1997 (5-10-1 ATS).
➤Vikings are on a roll, winning four straight games entering Week 18, even though they have been eliminated for a few weeks. Under Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota is 9-4-1 ATS when on a 4+ game win streak, covering by 4.6 PPG.
➤Since the calendar flipped to 2025, Packers have played nine games vs. teams .500 SU or worse, Green Bay is 1-8 ATS in those games.
1-0 ATS vs. Vikings
0-8 ATS vs. all other opponents
Against teams .500 SU or worse, Jordan Love is just 11-15 ATS with LaFleur, while Malik Willis is 2-1 ATS in those games.
➤At home over the last two seasons, Minnesota has done a pretty decent job at starting fast – they are 5-2 1Q ATS at home this year and 10-6 1Q ATS at home over the last two season.
➤Kevin O’Connell has had some covering success vs. Matt LaFleur and the Packers, going 4-3 ATS – his 4 covers vs. LaFleur are his most vs. any HC in the NFL.
Vikings lost SU and ATS vs. Packers earlier this season and O’Connell has yet to go 0-2 ATS vs. Packers in his three seasons in Minnesota.
Since Dec. 1, Minnesota has won and covered b2b games vs. teams with a better record than them – before that stretch, O’Connell and Minnesota was 3-9 ATS in that spot, showing some life and fight late in the season for the Vikings.
Looking at the Packers vs. a Brian Flores-led defense, they’ve faced him twice on the road and they’ve scored 25 and 33 pts in two games (since 2019).
➤Malik Willis has been beyond efficient in his time on the field. Last 3 seasons, he has the best EPA + CPOE in the NFL (min. 100 plays), the highest adjusted EPA/play, he’s 11th in success rate and 11th in aDOT.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
GB:
Keisean Nixon, CB, Packers: Needs 1 INT for a $25,000 incentive.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers: Needs 71 rush yds to get to 1,000 on the season.
MIN:
Jonathan Allen, DT, Vikings: Needs 1.5 sacks for a $250,000 incentive.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings: Needs 53 receiving yards to get to 1,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
NYG: clinches No. 1 pick with loss + LVR win or more combined losses from (DET, NO, SF, CIN)
➤In the 16 total 1st halves for Dallas this year, the 1H over is 15-1. Here are the best 1H over or under marks for any team in the regular season since 2005:
2025 Cowboys, 15-1 to over
2019 Bucs, 14-2 to over
2024 Panthers, 14-3 to over
2020 Cowboys, 13-3 to over
2013 Falcons, 13-3 to over
2013 Titans, 13-3 to under
Over the last 30 years, this is the best start to the 1st half over for any team.
➤Cowboys have beaten the Giants outright in 9 straight meetings. Going back to the start of the 2017 season, the Cowboys are 16-1 SU vs. the Giants, with their only loss coming back in January of 2021 behind Andy Dalton against Daniel Jones.
Since the start of 2017 season, Dallas is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road vs. Giants.
➤Another Cowboys game, another over last week.
• Dallas is 12-4 to the over this year, the best mark in the NFL.
• Dallas is 33-18 to the over in the last 3 seasons, also best in the NFL.
Dallas is 11-5 to the over on the road in the last two seasons.
The over is 8-0 in the 1st Half of the Cowboys' road games this season.
➤If this game goes over the total, it will be the first season since 2015 where Giants home games didn’t finish .500 or better to the under – New York is 4-3 to the over at home this season entering this week.
In the Giants last nine starts with Jaxson Dart at QB, the over is 7-2 in those games.
➤Cowboys haven’t finished the season very strongly in terms of covering when they are out of the playoff race. Since 2010, they are 4-8 ATS in Weeks 16-18 when they are under .500 on the season, losing both games ATS so far this season.
➤Dak Prescott is 14-2 SU and 10-6 ATS vs. the Giants. He started his career 0-2 SU vs. New York (both Eli Manning starts) and has won 14 consecutive starts against them since.
➤Prescott has excelled in his career against NFC East foes. He is 30-14 ATS vs. the NFC East, even after the ATS loss last week vs. Commanders. Since 2003, here are the most profitable QBs ATS vs. Division Foes:
Aaron Rodgers: 60-36 ATS
Dak Prescott: 32-14 ATS
Ben Roethlisberger: 54-38-3 ATS
Tom Brady: 63-47-5 ATS
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
DAL:
George Pickens, WR, Cowboys: Needs 8 receptions to get to 100 on the season.
George Pickens, WR, Cowboys: Needs 80 receiving yards to get to 1,500 on the season.
NYG:
Brian Burns, DE, Giants: Needs 2 sacks to tie Michael Strahan for 3rd in NYG single-season
Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, Giants: Needs 8 receptions to get to 100 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
JAC: 1) wins AFC South title with win, here are other seeding scenarios:
No. 3 Seed: win + DEN win + NE win or loss + HOU loss or DEN win + NE win + HOU loss
No. 2 Seed: win + DEN loss + NE win or win + DEN win + NE loss
No. 1 Seed: win + DEN loss + NE loss
JAC can still be the 1, 2, 3, 5 or 6 seed:
JAC 5 seed: loss + HOU win + BUF loss
JAC 6 seed: loss + HOU win + LAC win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (NYG, WAS, GB, CAR, ARI, SF, NE, BAL)
➤Jaguars are 12-4 to their team total over this year, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Bears. Jacksonville is 11-5 ATS through 16 games, tied for best ATS start in franchise history.
➤The Titans just can’t seem to string together success. After their loss to the Saints last week, they have lost 12 consecutive games both SU and ATS after a SU win, which is the longest active ATS losing streak off of a SU loss in the NFL.
After a SU loss, Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six games and 6-6 ATS this season, compared to the 2-11 ATS mark last year.
➤Since the start of last season, Trevor Lawrence has started three games as a favorite of 6+ pts, Jacksonville is 3-0 SU/ATS in those games, covering by 13.2 PPG. Lawrence is the only QB 2-0 ATS or better in this spot.
➤The Titans have struggled vs. their own. This year, Titans are 1-4 ATS vs. AFC South, including 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against their own division, including 3-14 ATS since the start of 2023.
Outside of their own division, Tennessee has been better, at 6-5 ATS this season.
➤Jaguars had another big win vs. Colts last week. Under Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars have been profitable ATS off a win, going 21-13 ATS.
➤Titans have played 15 total games this year. In 11 of those games, they have faced teams currently in the top-8 seeds in either conference, they are 0-11 SU and 4-7 ATS in those games.
In the five games they’ve played vs. teams outside the top-8, Tennessee is 3-2 SU/ATS in those games.
➤The Jaguars rush defense has been something to marvel at. They allowed just 70 yds on the ground to Jonathan Taylor last week, continuing their streak.
They are allowing just 86.1 yards per game, thry fewest mark in the NFL by 3.5 yards.
They are 4th in rush EPA allowed and 1st in rush success rate allowed.
Jacksonville is the only team in the NFL not to allow any player to rush for 75+ yards in a single game this season.
This season, Jacksonville has faced a RB who had a rush yd prop of 60+ eight times and those RBs are 8-0 to the under:
J. Taylor, B. Hall, J. Taylor, K. Vidal, A. Jeanty, K. Williams, C. McCaffrey, C. Brown
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
TEN:
Tony Pollard, RB, Titans: Needs 2 rush TD for a $200,000 incentive.
Van Jefferson, WR, Titans: Needs 1 receptions for a $100,000 incentive.
JAC:
Arik Armstead, DT, Jaguars: Needs 1.5 sack for a $1,000,000 incentive.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars: Needs 248 pass yards to get to 4,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
HOU: need a win and TEN to beat JAC to win AFC South and 3 seed
HOU can still be the 3, 5, 6 or 7 seed:
HOU 5 seed: win + JAC win or loss + LAC loss + BUF loss or JAC win + LAC loss + BUF loss
HOU 6 seed: loss + BUF loss + LAC win or loss + BUF win + LAC loss
HOU 7 seed: loss + LAC win + BUF win
➤Texans have beaten the Colts in four straight meetings entering this matchup, Houston’s first 4-game win streak over Indy in franchise history.
The Texans started their franchise history 0-13 SU on the road in Indianapolis, losing outright from 2002 to 2014, before their first win came from Brandon Weeden in 2015. Since then, Houston is 7-4 SU in Indy, and they’ve won four straight on the road vs. the Colts.
At home in Houston, Texans beat the Colts in Week 8 last year – they haven’t won b2b games at home vs. Indianapolis since 2010-12 (3 straight).
➤With the Texans win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Saturday night, the Colts were officially eliminated from the playoffs. Indy started the season 7-1 in their first 8 games and 8-2 in their first ten games of the season.
Here are the only teams since the 1970 merger to miss playoffs after starting 8-2 or better (not counting the 1987 strike):
2025 Colts
1995 Raiders
1993 Dolphins
1976 Bengals
1976 Cardinals
Nine total teams have faced Shane Steichen’s Colts on any extended prep time and they are 6-3 SU in those games.
➤With Riley Leonard slated to start, he would be the 16th different Colts QB to start for the franchise since Peyton Manning left at the end of 2011.
Only the Browns, Jets and Vikings have more starting QBs in that span.
The Texans have faced a rookie QB 8 times under DeMeco Ryans and Houston is 6-2 SU, winning six in a row outright. At home in Houston, things have been relatively tight though, winning by 3 vs. Cam Ward, by 20 vs. Drake Maye, by 3 vs. Will Levis and losing outright by 2 to Bryce Young.
➤DeMeco Ryans has been a first-half machine…
2025: 10-6 1H ATS
2024: 14-5 1H ATS
2023: 12-7 1H ATS
————————-
36-18 1H ATS
DeMeco has profited a $100 bettor $1,513 on the first half spread for a 28% ROI, the best mark for any head coach since 2005.
➤As head coach of the Colts, Shane Steichen has faced a defense allowing 17 PPG or less five times, he is 4-1 ATS in those games. His only loss? Their most recent game against the Texans.
➤The Texans have had goal line issues on offense all season long, especially in the run game. They had just 3 rush TDs inside the 5-yard line, which is tied with the Saints and Raiders for the fewest in the NFL.
On their 23 rush attempts inside the 5, Houston has just 4 total rushing yards, for 0.17 yards per carry, the 2nd-lowest mark in the NFL. Unbelievably, the Raiders have -1 rushing yards inside the 5 this year, the lowest mark in the NFL.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
IND:
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts: Needs 1 rush TD to break own franchise single-season record.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts: Needs 2 rush TD to get to 20 rush TDs on the season.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts: Trails James Cook by 47 rush yds for NFL lead entering Week 18.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts: Needs 76 scrimmage yds to get to 2,000 on the season.
HOU:
Nick Chubb, RB, Texans: Needs 94 rushing yards for a $250,000 incentive.
Ka'imi Fairbairn, K, Texans: Trails Jason Myers by 1 FGM for the NFL lead entering Week 18.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
BUF can be 5, 6 or 7 seed
BUF 5 seed: win + LAC loss + HOU loss or win + LAC loss + JAC loss
BUF 6 seed: win + LAC loss + HOU win + JAC win or win + LAC win + HOU loss or win + LAC win + JAC loss + 5 or more combined wins from (DAL, PHI, MIN, TB, SEA, LAR, MIA, PIT)
BUF 7 seed: loss or LAC win + HOU win + JAC win or LAC win + HOU win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (NYG, WAS, GB, CAR, ARI, SF, NE, BAL)
➤The Bills have taken care of business against the Jets lately. They have won and covered 4 straight games against New York entering this matchup, with their last loss coming against the Jets in that Week 1 matchup where Aaron Rodgers got hurt at the start of 2023.
At home, Buffalo has won 5 straight outright and 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Jets last win in Buffalo came back in Week 17 of 2019.
➤Buffalo’s script has been predictable lately. Bills are 1-7 1H ATS in their last eight games overall, including going 1-7 1H ATS at home this season.
Buffalo’s 1-7 1H ATS mark at home is tied with Saints for the worst mark in the NFL.
Buffalo’s 4-12 1H ATS mark overall is also tied with the Saints for the worst mark.
When Buffalo is favored to win the full game outright, they are 3-11 1H ATS, which is actually currently the worst mark for any team dating back to 2005.
What Buffalo does love to do is come back in the second half. This year, Bills are 11-5 2H ATS, tied for the 2nd-best mark in the NFL.
Overall, Josh Allen is 86-50-3 2H ATS in his career, with a $100 bettor up $2,846 backing Josh in the second half, the best mark of 274 QBs since 2005.
➤The Jets have been all-time bad recently entering this Bills game.
In December they have been outscored by 107 total points, the worst December by point differential for any team in NFL history.
Worst December point differentials in NFL history
2025 Jets: -107
1960 Bears: -106
1990 Patriots: -104
They have also lost four straight games now by 21 pts or more entering this matchup – another loss by 21 pts or more would make them the first team in the Super Bowl era to lose five straight games in a season by 21+ points.
➤Jets still don’t have an interception on defense. Just unreal. Now at 16 straight games, it is officially an NFL record for consecutive games without an INT.
Most Consecutive Games Without a Defensive INT since 1950
2025 Jets, 16
2024-25 49ers, 14
2024 Giants, 11
The Jets have forced just four turnovers this season, the fewest in NFL history through a team’s first 16 games – by 3 total TO’s, too, with the next closest team at 7 TO by this time of the season.
➤The one area the Jets have shown some improvement this season is scoring pts on the road. Entering this game, New York is 4-3 to their team total over on the road – they had gone under .500 to their TTO on the road the previous five seasons entering this year.
2025: 4-3 TTO on road
2020-24: 15-26-1 TTO on road
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
NYJ:
Nick Folk, K, Jets: Needs 2 FGM for a $500,000 incentive.
BUF:
Matt Milano, LB, Bills: Needs 1.5 sacks for a $1,000,000 incentive.
DaQuan Jones, DT, Bills: Needs 1 sack for a $500,000 incentive.
Tre'Davious White, CB, Bills: Needs 1 INT for a $250,000 incentive.
Joey Bosa, EDGE, Bills: Needs 1 sack for a $250,000 incentive.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills: Needs 1 TD for a $150,000 incentive.
Ty Johnson, RB, Bills: Needs 57 receiving yards for a $125,000 incentive.
Dawson Knox, TE, Bills: Needs 46 receiving yards for a $100,000 incentive.
James Cook, RB, Colts: Needs 103 scrimmage yds to get to 2,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
CHI: can be 2 seed or 3 seed
CHI 2 seed: win or PHI loss
CHI 3 seed: loss + PHI win
➤Lions were eliminated from playoff contention last week in losing to the Vikings.
For Dan Campbell, he has been good in Week 18, but previously he has started Jared Goff in all of these Week 18 games and has had something to play for in three of them.
2024: 1 seed
2023: seeding
2022: KO division rival
2021: DET eliminated, beat GB
Overall, under Campbell, Lions are 4-0 SU/ATS in Week 18. Even after the loss last week, Campbell is 8-2 ATS in Weeks 17 and 18 as a head coach.
➤When Jared Goff and Dan Campbell open as an underdog against any opponent, they are 29-14 ATS as a duo. When they actually end up closing as the dog, they are 23-13 ATS.
The issue? They’ve lost 3 in a row SU and ATS as an underdog entering this game.
➤The Lions have won 31 consecutive games outright when leading entering the 4th quarter. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions started 0-2-1 SU in games leading entering the 4th quarter. They are 41-2 SU in their last 43 games, leading entering the 4th.
➤Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons. They are 2-3 ATS vs. NFC North this year. Over the last five seasons, they are 10-18-1 ATS and 13-26-2 ATS since 2019, the worst mark for any team in the NFL.
Chicago is 1-1 ATS at home vs. NFC North entering this matchup – Bears haven’t finished above .500 ATS at home vs. NFC North since 2018, since that year they are 5-13-2 ATS at Soldier Field vs. their own division.
➤Lions are on a 3-game SU losing streak entering this game after dropping games to the Rams, Steelers and Vikings. Detroit has now lost 3 straight games for the first time since 2022 (when they lost 5 straight).
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 19-14-1 SU, 23-11 ATS off of a SU loss as a duo and they are now 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS off a loss in their last 17 games in that spot even after b2b losses.
After a SU loss vs. NFC North, Campbell and Goff are 8-2 ATS as a duo.
➤Bears are coming off an outright loss to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football last week. Under Ben Johnson, Chicago is 3-1 SU and ATS off of a loss. Their only loss in that spot? Week 2 against the Lions, losing 52-21.
➤Lions have had some success vs. Bears recently, going 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS vs. Chicago since the start of the 2022 season.
If Caleb Williams starts for Chicago, he is 0-3 SU vs. Dan Campbell’s Lions in his career with the Bears. This will be Ben Johnson’s 2nd crack at Detroit after he lost to them 52-21 back in Week 2.
➤On any extended prep time in his career as a starter, Goff is 23-15-2 ATS, including 15-7 ATS with the Lions, covering the spread by 3.9 PPG.
If Goff doesn’t play, Campbell is still 16-9 ATS on extended prep as a head coach.
➤Consecutive games under Dan Cambell where the Lions have rushed for under 70 yards. This is just the 3rd time that has happened for him, he went 0-2 ATS in his next game the previous two instances.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
DET:
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions: Needs 4 rush TD to move into 2nd DET career history.
Roy Lopez, DT, Lions: Needs 1 sack for a $250,000 incentive.
CHI:
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: Needs 270 pass yards to get to 4,000 on the season.
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears: Needs 107 pass yards to break the single-season CHI record.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
LAC: can be 5, 6 or 7 seed
LAC 5 seed: win + HOU loss or win + JAC loss + BUF win + 5 or more combined wins from (DAL, PHI, MIN, TB, SEA, LAR, MIA, PIT)
LAC 6 seed: win + HOU win + JAC win or win + BUF win + HOU win + 3.5 or more combined wins from (NYG, WAS, GB, CAR, ARI, SF, NE, BAL) or loss + BUF loss or BUF loss + HOU win
LAC 7 seed: loss + BUF win
DEN: gets 1 seed with win or NE loss + JAC loss
DEN 2 seed: loss + NE win + JAC loss or NE loss + JAC win
DEN 3 seed: loss + NE win + JAC win
➤The Chargers have decided to rest all their starters in this game against the Broncos this week – which means no Justin Herbert under center.
Jim Harbaugh has coached in the NFL for six seasons and he’s coached 106 total games, he’s only had 3 total QBs: Justin Herbert, Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith. He started with Smith, who got hurt, was replaced by Kaepernick, who never gave the job back.
In Kaepernick’s first game, 49ers won 32-7 at home vs. the Bears. If it’s Trey Lance under center – he has made 5 career starts and his teams have had 5 total TD drives in those games. Lance has covered the 1H spread in his last three starts for the Cowboys and 49ers.
➤Jim Harbaugh has done a great job at covering the spread in divisional games in his career as an NFL coach – he is 20-14-2 ATS with both the Chargers and 49ers, but the impressive part has come with L.A.
With the Chargers, Harbaugh is 10-0-1 ATS vs. AFC West over the last two seasons, the best mark of any coach in the NFL. No other coach has even 3+ wins without a loss vs. their own division in that span.
➤Bo Nix has started four career games for the Broncos where the over/under closed at 45 or higher – Denver 1-5 SU/ATS in those games.
In all other games with lower totals, Nix and the Broncos are 22-6 SU and 17-11 ATS, with Denver winning 11 consecutive games outright in this spot.
➤With the Chargers line ballooning to double-digits this will most likely close as the biggest underdog for Harbaugh in the NFL.
Jim Harbaugh Biggest NFL Underdog
+10 vs. Seahawks (2014, L 17-7)
+9.5 at Eagles (2011, W 24-23)
As an underdog in the NFL, Harbaugh is 13-12 SU, profiting a $100 bettor $1,111 for a 44% ROI. The Chargers are 4-0 SU as underdogs this year, the most wins without a loss for any team this year.
➤The Broncos have had their issues covering as favorites this year, especially compared to last season … and even the last few seasons.
Broncos as Favorites
2025: 2-9 ATS
2024: 8-0 ATS
2023: 3-5-1 ATS
2022: 1-7 ATS
Denver’s 2-9 ATS mark as a favorite is the worst in the NFL this year. If Denver finishes 2-10 ATS as a favorite entering the playoffs, it would be the worst mark for any team since 1990 and tie the 1989 Washington team for the last 2-10 ATS team as a favorite during the regular season.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
LAC:
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: Needs 6 receptions for a $750,000 incentive.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: Needs 9 receiving yards for a $250,000 incentive.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers: Needs 2 TDs for a $250,000 incentive.
Benjamin St-Juste, CB, Chargers: Needs 1 INT for a $75,000 incentive.
Troy Dye, LB, Chargers: Needs 1 sack for a $75,000 incentive.
DEN:
Adam Trautman, TE, Broncos: Needs 5 receptions for a $125,000 incentive.
Bo Nix, QB, Broncos: Needs 210 pass yds for 4,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
LVR: clinches No. 1 pick with loss or NYG win or 3 or more combined losses from (CHI, ATL, SEA, CLE)
➤Chiefs have dominated the Raiders in recent history.
• 3 straight outright wins
• 9-1 SU last ten meetings
• 14-2 SU last 16 matchups
• 19-3 SU last 22 matchups
Where the damage has really been done is on the road in either Vegas or Oakland, where the Chiefs have won 7 straight games, with the Raiders last outright win coming in 2017 with Derek Carr beating Alex Smith – KC is 6-0 SU playing in Allegiant Stadium, five against the Raiders and one Super Bowl win against the 49ers.
➤The Chiefs have lost as a favorite in 8 total games this season – which is tied for the most outright losses as a favorite in a team’s regular season since 1990 – a record KC could break this week with a loss to the Raiders.
We haven’t seen a team lose 9+ games outright in a regular season as a favorite since Washington back in 1988 and the record in the Super Bowl era is 10 losses as a favorite by the 1987 Raiders.
➤Raiders enter this game on a 10-game SU losing streak after falling to the Giants last week.
In the last 20 years, we’ve seen six teams enter Weeks 17 and 18 with a 10+ game losing streak and those teams went 6-0 ATS, covering by 6 PPG.
An outright loss this week against the Cheifs would give the Raiders their longest single-season losing streak for the franchise since losing 13 straight in 1962.
➤Extended prep used to be a staple for Andy Reid. Not so much lately. Chiefs are off a game vs. Broncos on Christmas Eve before this road game in Vegas.
In Reid and KC’s last six games on extended prep, they are just 1-5 SU. Prior to this stretch, Reid went 78-30 SU on extended rest as a head coach during the season.
➤Home has not been a friendly place in Las Vegas for the Raiders lately. In their last 14 home games, the Raiders are 2-12 SU and they are 3-13 SU since the start of last season.
Worst Home ML Teams Since Start 2024
Titans: 2-15 SU
Raiders: 3-13 SU
Giants: 3-13 SU
Since the Raiders moved to Vegas in 2020, they are 20-30 SU at home, with a $100 moneyline bettor down $1,271 – the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of only the Cardinals.
➤Quite the spread turnaround for the Chiefs, they closed as 13-pt home underdogs last week vs. Broncos and are now hovering around a 5 to 6 pt road favorite against the Raiders this week.
KC would be just the 7th team since 2000 to close +13 or higher in their previous game and then close -5 or higher in their next one and the first since the Commanders in 2019.
The previous six teams went 5-1 SU in that next game.
That 2019 Washington team would be the only other team to close +13 or higher at home and then be -5 or greater in their next game, dating back to 1990.
➤Chiefs have lost five straight road games outright, all as favorites, entering this week against the Raiders.
Overall, Chiefs are on a 7-game ATS losing streak as favorites entering this matchup and as a favorite vs. AFC West, they’ve been terrible:
Last 2 seasons: 1-7-1 ATS (worst in NFL)
Last 4 seasons: 5-14-1 ATS (worst in NFL)
Last 6 seasons: 10-20-1 ATS (worst in NFL)
➤The Chiefs and Seahawks are both 12-4 to the first half under this season, tied for the best marks in the NFL in that category.
This would be the Chiefs first season above .500 to the 1H under since 2021.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
KC:
Chris Jones, DT, Chiefs: Needs 0.5 sack for 3rd place in KC history.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: Needs 2 receptions to pass Terrell Owens for 8th all-time.
Marquise Brown, WR, Chiefs: Needs 1 TD for a $750,000 incentive.
Marquise Brown, WR, Chiefs: Needs 102 receiving yards for a $625,000 incentive.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Chiefs: Needs 31 scrimmage yards for a $25,000 incentive.
LVR:
Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders: Needs 112 rush yds to get to 1,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
LAR: can still get 5 or 6 seed
LAR 5 seed: win + SF loss
LAR 6 seed: loss or SF win
➤Sean McVay has enjoyed his games against the Cardinals. He is 13-4-1 ATS vs. Arizona, his most profitable opponent ATS. In Week 12 or later, including the playoffs, vs. Arizona, McVay is 9-1-1 ATS as coach of the Rams, covering the spread by 11.2 PPG.
➤Overall, McVay is 34-21-1 ATS vs. the NFC West as coach of the Rams. Rams are 3-2 ATS vs. NFC West this season, going for his 9th consecutive season (would be 9-for-9) .500 ATS or better vs. NFC West.
Most Profitable Coaches ATS vs. Own Division Last Decade ($100 bet)
McVay 34-21-1 ATS (+$1,071)
Jim Harbaugh 10-0-1 ATS (+$929)
Jason Garrett 17-7 ATS (+$926)
➤No Kyler Murray again in this Rams-Cardinals matchup. Kyler has faced the Rams 11 times in his career. He is 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS against them, losing 5 of his last 6 games SU dating back to 2021.
Not much different without Kyler, as Arizona is 1-6 SU/ATS vs. Rams and McVay without him, failing to cover the spread by 11.6 PPG.
➤Rams faced the Falcons on Monday Night Football last week and now face the Cardinals on short rest this week. McVay is 18-8 ATS on short rest as coach of the Rams, the 2nd-best mark for any coach over the last 20 years.
Most Profitable Coaches ATS on Short Rest Last 20 Years
Tom Coughlin 16-6 ATS (+$980)
Sean McVay 18-8 ATS (+$876)
Mike Smith 11-2 ATS (+$853)
➤The slide continued for the Cardinals last week. Arizona is now 1-13 SU in their last 14 games and have now lost 8 in a row outright – Arizona’s only win in this span? On the road in Dallas.
Cardinals and Raiders both enter Week 18 on 8+ game SU losing streaks. Teams in that spot since 2007 are 13-6 ATS.
➤In the first half, the Cardinals have struggled recently on the road. In their last four road starts, Arizona has been outscored 94-24, going 0-4 1H ATS in that span.
➤Since Jacoby Brissett was named the full-time starter in Arizona, the Cardinals are 0-8 SU, which is tied with the Raiders for the worst mark in the NFL in that span.
Arizona has lost those games by 15.6 PPG, while the Raiders have lost by 14.4 PPG.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
ARI:
Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals: Tied with Puka Nacua for NFL receptions lead entering Week 18.
Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals: Needs 93 receiving yards to get to 1,000 on the season.
LAR:
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams: Needs 2 pass TDs to pass D. Marino for 7th all-time.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams: Trails Dak Prescott by 34 pass yds for NFL lead entering Week 18.
Puka Nacua, WR, Rams: Enters Week 18 trailing Jaxon Smith-Njigba by 70 yards for NFL lead.
Puka Nacua, WR, Rams: Tied with Trey McBride for NFL receptions lead entering Week 18.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
NE: gets 1 seed with win + DEN loss
NE 2 seed: win + DEN win or loss + JAC loss or DEN win + JAC loss
NE 3 seed: loss + JAC win
➤Here we go again. The Dolphins haven’t fared well in cold weather.
In outdoor games in under 40 degrees, Mike McDaniel is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS, losing those six games by 10.6 PPG. Overall, Miami has lost 13 games in a row outright in under 40 degree temperatures, with their last win coming back in 2016 in Buffalo behind Adam Gase and Matt Moore at QB.
The Falcons (0-6 SU) are the only other team in the NFL without a SU win in sub-40-degree temperatures during that 13-game losing streak for Miami.
➤When the Patriots and Dolphins last met in Week 2, New England was trying to end a horrific ATS losing streak, having lost 9 in a row ATS vs. Miami entering that matchup.
New England closed +2.5 and won outright on the road in Miami.
At home in New England, the Patriots have lost 4 consecutive games ATS vs. the Dolphins – their longest home ATS losing streak vs. Dolphins in franchise history.
At home in New England, Tom Brady went 12-5 ATS. All other QBs since his first start have gone 2-5 ATS in that spot. Drake Maye has made two career starts vs. Dolphins – both coming on the road.
➤Drake Maye has New England playing well as a big favorite. As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Maye is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. As a double-digit favorite, Maye is 2-0 SU/ATS.
The only other QB 5-0 SU or better as a favorite of 3pts or more this year is Caleb Williams at 5-0 SU. Since 2003, Maye currently holds the most wins without a SU loss in this spot.
➤What the Patriots have accomplished from an expectations standpoint is impressive. They are 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS and entering the season they were the first team since division realignment in 2002 to see their win total jump 4+ games year-to-year from BOTH their previous win total AND previous games won.
➤As head coach of the Dolphins, Mike McDaniel has closed above a 5-pt underdog in eight games, and Miami is 7-1 ATS in those matchups, covering the spread by 8.8 PPG, including 2-0 ATS without Tua Tagovailoa starting.
➤Dolphins are just 3-13 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room this year, the worst mark in the NFL.
Miami has started fast and faded from there this year. They are 11-5 1Q ATS, 10-6 2Q ATS, 3-13 3Q ATS and 8-8 4Q ATS this season.
➤Mike Vrabel is 37-11 SU and 30-17-1 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU with the Patriots and Titans.
This season, the Patriots are 10-0 SU vs. teams under .500 winning by 14.8 PPG, and since 2020, Vrabel is 28-6 SU vs. bad teams. Since 2022, Vrabel is 16-5 ATS vs. teams below .500, most profitable coach in the NFL.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
MIA:
Bradley Chubb, EDGE, Dolphins: Needs 2.5 sacks for a $900,000 incentive.
De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins: Needs 150 rush yds to get to 1,500 on the season.
De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins: Needs 162 scrimmage yds to get to 2,000 on the season.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins: Needs 90 receiving yards to get to 1,000 on the season.
NE:
K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, Patriots: Needs 0.5 sack for a $500,000 incentive.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Patriots: Needs 8 receptions for a $500,000 incentive.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Patriots: Needs 30 receiving yards for a $500,000 incentive (and 1,000 yards on the season).
Stefon Diggs, WR, Patriots: Needs 130 receiving yards for an extra $500,000 incentive.
Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots: Needs 5 receptions for a $250,000 incentive.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Patriots: Needs 142 rush yds to get to 1,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
PHI: can be 2 or 3 seed
PHI 2 seed: win + CHI loss
PHI 3 seed: loss or CHI win
➤Commanders have had their issues with the Eagles in recent history – the last Washington QB to beat Philly twice outright as a member of the Washington franchise was Kirk Cousins back in 2016.
Since then, Washington is 4-14 SU and 6-10-2 ATS vs. Eagles, including 2-7 SU both at home and on the road vs. Eagles.
➤This season, Washington has played five games on short rest/prep time and they are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games.
This week, Washington has some extra prep time before their Week 18 finale vs. Eagles – in four games on extra prep this season, Washington has played well in three of them, going 2-2 ATS covering against Broncos on Sunday Night Football less than a month ago. Without Jayden Daniels in this spot, they are 2-1 ATS.
➤Always a tough spot for Washington. After Washington faces either the Eagles or Cowboys and then has to play either the Eagles or Cowboys in their next game, they are 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in the 2nd game vs. a division rival.
➤This season, the Eagles are just 6-10 to their team total over, tied for the worst mark in the NFC with the Bucs. This would be the Eagles first season under .500 to their TTO since 2020.
Most of those issues have come early in games. At home, the Eagles are 2-5 1Q ATS this season, compared to the 7-2 1Q ATS mark on the road.
➤The Bills defense has been pretty terrible this year, which is probably baked into this stat.
After teams play Buffalo this season – like the Eagles did last week – they are 11-4 ATS in their next game, tied for the 2nd-best mark in the NFL. The only team better? Teams after playing the Ravens are 12-3 ATS this season.
➤In Weeks 16-18, Jalen Hurts has made nine total starts in his career as a favorite. The Eagles are 2-7 ATS in those games, including 0-4 ATS in Weeks 17 and 18.
Only one QB has more ATS losses without a win in Weeks 17-18 as a favorite since 2003 and that is Geno Smith at 0-5 ATS.
➤Josh Johnson has made ten total starts in his NFL career, he is 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS in those games, including 3-7 against the first half spread, going 1-6 1H ATS in his last seven starts.
When Johnson’s opponent scores 14 pts or more, he is 0-9 SU as a starting QB.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
WAS:
Von Miller, EDGE, Commanders: Needs 1 sacks for a $1,000,000 incentive.
Deebo Samuel, WR, Commanders: Needs 93 receiving yards for a $450,000 incentive.
Deebo Samuel, WR, Commanders: Needs 2 touchdowns for a $250,000 incentive.
Dorance Armstrong, DT, Commanders: Needs 0.5 sack for a $250,000 incentive.
Jacob Martin, EDGE, Commanders: Needs 1.5 sacks for a $250,000 incentive.
PHI:
Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles: Needs 87 scrimmage yards for a $250,000 incentive.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles: Needs 64 receiving yards to get to 1,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Playoff and Draft Scenarios
BAL: wins AFC North and 4 seed with win
PIT: wins AFC North and 4 seed with win
➤Ravens-Steelers matchups have always been dominated by the underdog.
Since 2005, the underdog in this series is 30-12-3 ATS (71%). In the regular season, the underdog is 25-7-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh.
In the regular season, when the line is three or more points, the underdog is 24-5-3 ATS in that span. As an underdog against the Ravens, Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 ATS as head coach of the Steelers.
➤The Ravens are favored vs. the Steelers in their 5th straight meeting – a stretch like no other.
Baltimore was never even favored in 3 straight meetings vs. Pittsburgh in franchise history prior to this current streak.
➤The Steelers and Ravens almost always play close games. In their last 12 meetings, here are the final margins, with the Ravens winning by 2+ scores in 2 of the last 3 meetings
5, 14, 17, 2, 7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4.
Since the start of 2015, the Steelers and Ravens have met 22 times; 17 of those 22 games had a final margin of seven or fewer points.
➤Back in Week 14, the Ravens and Steelers game went over the total by about 6-6.5 pts.
In the Ravens and Steelers last 11 meetings dating back to December of 2020, the under is 9-2 in those matchups.
This series hasn’t seen b2b games go over the total in the same season since 2019.
➤Ravens are on extended prep time facing the Steelers this week after facing the Packers on Saturday night last week.
Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 45-23 SU and 37-29-2 ATS when playing a game on any extended prep time. They have faced the Steelers eight times in those 68 games and they are just 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in those games, including 0-5 SU since 2020.
➤Steelers had a tough Week 17, losing outright to the Browns as a favorite on the road. In Mike Tomlin’s career, he is still 15-8 ATS in Weeks 17 and 18, which is the best mark for any head coach since 2005.
➤If Lamar Jackson goes for Ravens, worth noting he has struggled vs. Pittsburgh in his career. He is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS vs. Baltimore, his least profitable opponent ATS in his career.
Lamar has just 11 pass TD and 10 INT in ten total games played vs. Steelers. In the regular season, Lamar is completing 57.4% of his passes vs. Steelers, his lowest mark (min. 3 GP) for any opponent.
➤The Ravens are off playing b2b night games against the Patriots and Packers before this matchup for the division title against the Steelers.
Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore is actually 8-0 SU when playing a game off b2b night games, an impressive feat given all teams are just 49-45 SU in that spot over the last five seasons.
➤A rare loss for Steelers last week. Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 70-12 SU and 64-17-1 ATS when they don’t turn over the ball – which they did last week vs. Browns.
Last week was their 2nd game this season without a turnover, where they didn’t cover the spread, Pittsburgh’s most in a single-season since 2009.
After Tomlin loses outright with no TO on defense, his teams are 8-2 SU in their next game.
➤Steelers were without DK Metcalf last week … and it showed. Aaron Rodgers had 39 pass attempts for 168 total passing yards – in 83 career games with 39+ pass attempts, that was his fewest total pass yds in a game.
When throwing 10+ yds downfield, Rodgers went 3-15 passing vs. Browns.
Incentives, Milestones, Records:
BAL:
Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens: Needs 2 rush TDs to pass Marcus Allen for 3rd all-time.
Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens: Trails James Cook by 137 rush yds for NFL lead entering Week 18.
Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens: Trails Jonathan Taylor by 2 rush TDs for NFL lead entering Week 18.
PIT:
Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers: Needs 108 rush yds to get to 1,000 on the season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
NFL Betting Systems
System: Late in the season it has been profitable to fade home teams in division games with a middle of the pack win pct.
Matches: TB, PIT, MIN
System: Historically, it has been profitable to bet teams after bad offensive games. They are 17-4 ATS this season.
Matches: PIT
System: This system says to fade the hot teams.
Matches: SEA, NE
System: High total divisional unders. In Week 18, we have plenty.
Matches: NYG/DAL, CHI/DET, SF/SEA, JAC/TEN, LAR/ARI … and potentially three more. Check current lines here.
System: Keep betting teams under .500 who have some momentum as favorites.
Matches: DAL, CIN
System: Dogs with low totals. Above .500 ATS in 7 of the last 8 seasons and include a bunch of games this week … and potentially two more. Check current lines here.
Matches: LVR, GB, NYJ, LAC, IND
Click here to return to the table of contents.
