NFL Sharp Report: 49ers vs. Chiefs, 3 Other Saturday Games Drawing Smart Money
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo and Tevin Coleman
- Sharps aren't forgetting about the NFL preseason on this opening Saturday of college football.
- See how they're betting Cardinals-Vikings (1 p.m. ET), Bears-Colts (7 p.m. ET), Saints-Jets (7:30 p.m. ET) and 49ers-Chiefs (8 p.m. ET).
Yes, it’s officially college football season. Yes, we’re all excited. However, that doesn’t mean that sharps have forgotten about the big boys at the next level playing in games that don’t count.
In fact, Saturday’s seven-game NFL preseason slate has drawn considerable one-sided sharp action to four matchups, including the Cardinals vs. Vikings matinee.
>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
1 p.m. ET | NFL Network
While it’s actually not the first football game that will kick off on Saturday, this afternoon’s Cards-Vikes matchup has been a popular one among bettors looking to pass the afternoon by. It leads the NFL slate in terms of ticket count, and is behind only two of today’s 15 MLB games — which do count.
Among those betting it are sharps, who have targeted value on an unusually large preseason underdog.
Technically, the Vikings opened at just -4.5 at the earliest books to post numbers, but they were quickly bet up to -7 before much of the rest of the market joined the party.
Interestingly, despite the uncertainty of preseason games, the Vikes have generated 77% of bets in this matchup. Equally as interesting is that their line has now dropped to -6.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals have identified four instances of sharp money hitting Arizona (all at +7), dropping this line to its current listing. The only sign of smart money going the other way came after the immediate release, when the Vikings were hit at -4.5.
Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from +7 to +6)
Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts
7 p.m. ET
Week 3 of the preseason generally brings with it higher totals, as more starters are expected to see playing time. And like most other totals across the Week 3 slate, this one opened above the 40-mark at 42.5.
The Bears, however, look like they’ll continue to rest starters even in what is often used as a regular season dress rehearsal, and the Colts have no Andrew Luck (and also will be sitting many of their starters).
With that, the total is no longer in the above-40 group, having dropped 5.5 points to its current listing of 37. Such a big move means personnel news is a driving force, but given how gradually the total has fallen, there’s no questioning that sharp action is also playing a role.
SI Bet Signals have triggered four steam and reverse line moves on the under, which has attracted a whopping 96% of money on 74% of bets.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 42.5 to 37)
New Orleans Saints @ New York Jets
7:30 p.m. ET
A similar situation is taking place in tonight’s Saints-Jets matchup — minus the lack of starters.
This total opened around 45, with some books even posting a 45.5. It’s now down to 42 across the board, however, despite roughly even betting percentages.
Five Bet Signals have come down on the under — the four most recent of which came at 43 — and as was the case in the game above, the percentage of bettors on the under (48%) is generating a higher percentage of money (78%).
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 45 to 42)
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
8 p.m. ET
Despite how it may seem, sharps don’t just automatically bet unders. This game serves as proof.
The opening total was a bit all over the map, ranging from 43 to 44.5. At one point or another, most books dropped the number and lined up at 43 by midweek. That was apparently too low for sharps, who hit the over four times since then at numbers ranging from 43 to 44, setting up the current consensus line of 45.
Once again, the 51% of bets on the over have accounted for 86% of actual money wagered on the total.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 43 to 45)