The New England Patriots enter 2025 with expectations not seen in years. Their win total is set at 8.5, a dramatic rise from last season’s 4.5, when they managed just four victories.
Oddsmakers have taken notice of the turnaround: on March 1st, New England sat at 125-1 to win the Super Bowl, but those odds have since shortened to 80-1. That’s a far cry from 2024, when the Patriots opened the regular season at 300-1. The jump in expectations is historic — no other team has seen a bigger leap this year.
After being underdogs in 17 straight games (the NFL’s longest active streak) and not favored once in 2024, the Patriots are projected to be favorites in 11 games this fall, including Week 1 vs. the Raiders.
The surge in optimism follows a period of steady underachievement. New England has gone under its win total in three straight seasons (2022–24), the first time in the Wild Card era (since 1990) that the franchise has missed the mark three years in a row.
That slump stands in stark contrast to the dynasty years between 2001 and 2021, when the Patriots went 15-4-2 to the over.
History provides some caution around dramatic jumps like this one. Since 2019, nine teams have seen their win total increase by 4+ wins compared to their actual record the season prior. Those teams — which include this year’s Patriots and 49ers — have gone just 1-6 to the over. But going back further, since 2002, when a team’s new win total is 8 or higher, the results are split evenly at 5-5 to the over.
The company New England keeps this year is a mix of success stories and disappointments. Since 2002, only six teams, including the 2024–25 Patriots and Broncos, have seen their actual win total rise by 4+ games year-to-year. The results vary:
- The 2022–23 Falcons jumped from 4.5 to 8.5 and won 7 games.
- The 2022–23 Jets rose from 5.5 to 9.5 and finished with 7 wins.
- The 2017–18 Rams jumped from 6 to 10 and broke through with 13 wins.
- The 2008–09 Falcons rose from 4.5 to 8.5 and delivered 9 wins.
The Patriots’ case is unique, though. They are the first team since division realignment in 2002 to see their win total increase by 4+ games from both their previous win total and their actual wins.
That sets them apart from the usual “bounce-back” category and makes 2025 one of the most pivotal seasons in franchise history.
