The Best Week 14 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
- If you were fortunate to survive the Week 13 NFL Survivor pool bloodbath, be sure to target NFC North teams this weekend.
- Travis Reed uses his model to determine the smartest picks to keep you alive through Week 14.
Hello? Anybody still out there? Is anyone still listening?
After we went through much of the season without many upsets rocking the boat, many entries went full Titanic and have been sunk by some double-digit underdogs as of late.
Last week, the Panthers were very popular and taken in nearly half of all Yahoo survivor leagues. The Redskins won as 10.5-point dogs, costing survivor players their entry fees and Ron Rivera his head coaching job.
That wasn’t the only landmine that survivor pools had to dodge, as the Eagles were also 10.5-point favorites that lost outright. They couldn’t overcome a fantastic trick play with some Fitzmagic sprinkled in and eliminated another chunk of entries themselves.
The good news for me was that I took the Chiefs. The better news was that everyone else left in my pool took either the Panthers or Eagles. So I won!
I guess that’s the end of this article series, best of luck next year! Oh right, this is about you guys, not me.
All right, let’s take a look at the projected win percentages for the rest of the season.
There are six teams that the model projects to have a winning percentage of 70% or higher this week. Here are those teams with the pertinent information this week.
The first thing to notice is that none of these teams have games left on the schedule that are overly appealing. Green Bay might have one in Week 17 if Matthew Stafford still isn’t back for Detroit, but there is also the possibility that the Packers are locked into a seed and rest that week.
The Vikings are the best play this week as they are 80% to win, but only 13.5% of entries are taking them. If you have Minnesota as an option, I’d start there.
If you don’t have Minnesota (or you have to select two teams like many pools do), then I would take Green Bay next despite its popularity.
The model is not nearly as high on the Eagles as the market currently is. I would take Philadelphia over Houston as a contrarian play, but other than that, I would just go down the board and take the team with the highest projected win percentage.
If you are in a league where you continue into the playoffs (which is wild but I love the idea), then the Browns and Jets definitely become more viable. I wouldn’t take them over Minnesota, which is most likely going to be the 6-seed and around 40% to win a wild card game.
Some users have contacted me asking about splitting or chopping the pool with the other entrants remaining. I would recommend putting yourself in your opponents’ shoes and selecting the rest of the season for them.
Then use some arithmetic and see what their odds are of getting through to each week. Do the same for your own entry and you should have a good idea if you are ahead or behind. If the chop is more than your equity, then take it. If it isn’t, then let the rest of the year play out.
If you have any questions about your entry, hit me up on Twitter and I’ll be glad to help. Best of luck, and hope to see some of you cashing your pools this week.