Stuckey’s NFL Teaser Tips and Favorite Divisional Round Sides to Tease
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees
- Should you use teasers when betting the NFL? If so, when and how? We recap the five rules to follow as well as other factors to consider.
- We'll then apply my teaser rules and guidelines to this weekend's Divisional Round games.
Contrary to popular opinion, teasers can be a very valuable tool to bettors — but really only in the NFL as long as you follow a few basic rules of thumb.
Here’s a recap of the five rule novice bettors should know (read more about all five here):
- Don’t ever tease across zero.
- Cross at least two key numbers.
- Don’t tease totals.
- Price matters.
- Know your book’s rules.
There are also other factors (some minor) that I consider before ever finalizing an NFL teaser:
- Lower scoring games: Naturally, teasing a side becomes more valuable in a game that points will come at a premium.
- Backdoorability: How will the opposing defense play late and/or how much do you trust your quarterback to drive down the field late for a touchdown?
- Coaching: Do you have a competent coach who will understand kicking down 10 with less than two minutes to go is smarter than trying to score a touchdown in the final seconds?
- Special teams: Do you have a special teams edge overall and, more importantly, a kicker you trust? This becomes even more important with the recent extra-point rule changes.
Let’s now apply those rules and principles to this weekend’s card and come up with what I feel is the best teaser on the board.
My Divisional Round Weekend Teaser Rankings
Since we aren’t teasing totals or crossing zero with our sides, that only leaves five potential teaser options.
In order of strength, here are my rankings for those five for a six-point teaser:
- Saints -2
- Rams -1.5
- Chargers +10
- Colts +11
- Cowboys +13
- Eagles +14
I’d personally throw out the Cowboys and Eagles as well, since you aren’t crossing 3 or 7 — the two teaser Kings.
In regards to the Colts and Chargers, we’re crossing the 7 (but not the 3) on both, but I actually prefer Los Angeles in what I (and oddsmakers) anticipate will be a lower scoring game — making the tease more valuable. I also trust the Chargers defense more to keep that game close against a much less explosive opponent.
Los Angeles’ special teams also don’t worry me as much as it did all season, especially after Michael Badgley’s performance in similar conditions last week — and the underrated strategic signing of Nick Rose to handle kickoffs to address the Chargers’ touchback problems against dynamic returner Cordarrelle Patterson.
It might sound square on the surface, but I’m rolling with a tease of the two biggest favorites on the board this weekend.
Why? Well, for two main reasons:
- I think both win outright (obviously). Aaron Donald is going to wreck havoc on the interior of the’ Cowboys depleted interior offensive line, and the Eagles’ secondary has a nightmare matchup with their elite defensive line meeting its match against one of the best offensive fronts in football.
- We’re crossing both the 3 and 7 on each part, giving us an edge over the book without even taking into account the matchups. It’s just pure math as I outlined above. There’s a reason why a number of books refused any NFL teaser action last weekend when I was in Las Vegas.
Sometimes the lines are just spot on — although I do think New Orleans -8 is short — which shouldn’t shock anybody in a market like the NFL. So why not give yourself an edge with a teaser if you can cross the 7 and 3 on a game like Cowboys-Rams that I think is reasonably lined?
My Divisional Round Teaser: Saints -2/Rams -1.5
NFL teasers YTD: 15-11 (57.8%)