NFL Trades Tracker: Odds for QBs on the 2021 Carousel
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Deshaun Watson
The 2021 NFL quarterback carousel is spinning.
The Rams kickstarted it when they traded Jared Goff and a trio of draft picks (including two first-rounders) to the Lions in exchange for Matthew Stafford. Now, fans and bettors alike are waiting for the next shoe to drop.
With that in mind, find the latest odds for key QBs who have been featured in reports and trade rumors below.
Note: All of the following information is as of Feb. 11 or 12 and odds are via various legal sportsbooks.
Deshaun Watson Trade Odds
Matthew Trebby: While the Texans made news by releasing longtime franchise star J.J. Watt, there was more news on Deshaun Watson that affected the quarterback’s betting market: According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers are among the teams that Watson would be interested in.
The New York Jets? Not so much.
The Jets have the most to offer the Texans, with two first-round picks both this year and in 2022. But New York is coming off a two-win season and has shown few signs of improvement recently.
The Broncos have the ninth pick in this year’s draft and could build a package around quarterback Drew Lock. Whether that’s one the Texans would be interested in remains to be seen.
The 49ers have the 12th overall pick and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract that they’d like to rid. Those two alone likely wouldn’t come close to touching Watson’s value in Houston’s eyes, although the Texans may have more interest in Garoppolo than most teams given general manager Nick Caserio and Jack Easterby’s past with the Patriots.
Carson Wentz Trade Odds
Editor’s Note: Carson Wentz was traded to the Colts
The Chicago Bears are still favored at +115, meaning a $100 bet would net a $115 profit (convert more betting odds here). The Indianapolis Colts aren’t far behind on the oddsboard at +135 (bet $100 to win $135), but the gap after those two teams is notable.
Interestingly, the Colts are favored at FanDuel (+125) while the Bears are the ones directly behind (+150), but the gap between them and the rest remains: Odds for the next teams are +450 (Texans and Eagles).
Russell Wilson Trade Odds
Tommy Stokke: Russell Wilson hasn’t reached Deshaun Watson’s level of frustration with the only franchise he’s ever known, but the quarterback’s displeasure is enough for public speculation on his future to begin.
And with speculation comes betting odds.
The Seahawks aren’t expected to actually move on from Wilson, although sometimes where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
If Tom Brady can successfully leave the Patriots and win, who’s to say it can’t happen to Wilson? It’s more likely this is a ploy to motivate the front office to make necessary adjustments to support Wilson. But if this public spat becomes a problem, PointsBet pegs the Raiders as favorites to acquire Wilson.
The Raiders have been in rumors all offseason about potential upgrades from Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota. While Carr’s brother, David, has said that the team is turning down trade offers, there’s little doubt Mark Davis and Jon Gruden would jump at the opportunity to land someone like Wilson.
Sam Darnold Trade Odds
Katie Richcreek: According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the New York Jets have fielded inquiries from teams interested in trading for the third-overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, though the Jets have yet to formally confirm such calls. Either way, the report has the rumor mill churning, and there’s enough speculation to inspire sportsbooks.
DraftKings released odds to be the team Darnold plays his first snap for in 2021. The Jets are a clear betting favorite at +150 (bet $100 to net a $150 profit), giving them a 40% implied probability to retain the quarterback (convert more odds with our calculator).
The book has also listed odds for all 32 teams. The following have odds better than +1000: Panthers (+500), Texans (+500), Colts (+600), 49ers (+800) and Washington (+800). Of course, all five of those teams are expected to feature in this offseason’s QB market as either buyers or sellers (or both), though some may end up making moves in the draft.