Sam Darnold Trade Odds: Bears, 49ers & Washington Top Board
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold Trade Odds
Movement continues to shift the quarterback market.
Matthew Stafford went to the Rams (and Jared Goff to the Lions as part of that deal). Carson Wentz as dealt to the Colts. Then Dak Prescott finally signed an extension with the Cowboys, seemingly shortening the chances of Russell Wilson getting traded this offseason.
That leaves Deshaun Watson and Sam Darnold spinning on the quarterback carousel, with the fate of the latter likely tied to April's draft. With the No. 2 pick in hand, BYU quarterback Zach Wilson has been mocked to the Jets so often that he's now the clear favorite to go second overall at -305 odds. Still, it wouldn't be out of the question for them to move on from Darnold even if they draft Wilson.
Feb. 12 Update
The NFL's offseason quarterback carousel is spinning.
The Rams kickstarted it when they traded Jared Goff and a trio of draft picks (including two first-rounders) to the Lions in exchange for Matthew Stafford. Now, fans and bettors alike are waiting for the next shoe to drop.
Among other names swirling around?
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the New York Jets have fielded inquiries from teams interested in trading for the third-overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, though the Jets have yet to formally confirm such calls. Either way, the report has the rumor mill churning, and there's enough speculation to inspire sportsbooks.
DraftKings released odds to be the team Darnold plays his first snap for in 2021. The Jets are a clear betting favorite at +150 (bet $100 to net a $150 profit), giving them a 40% implied probability to retain the quarterback (convert more odds with our calculator).
The book has also listed odds for all 32 teams. The following have odds better than +1000: Panthers (+500), Texans (+500), Colts (+600), 49ers (+800) and Washington (+800). Of course, all five of those teams are expected to feature in this offseason's QB market as either buyers or sellers (or both), though some may end up making moves in the draft.
Darnold was notably part of the 2018 QB class that also featured Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield, all of whom led their teams to playoff wins in 2020.
When our senior NFL analyst Chris Raybon analyzed the signal-callers of that and other recent classes who had yet to prove themselves surefire franchise QBs, he was not high on Darnold's long-term outlook:
There are many things to blame Adam Gase for, but ruining Darnold isn’t one of them — Darnold’s ANYA under Gase (5.11) is not much different than his career rate (5.16).
Even Ryan Tannehill, one of the lone exceptions to the rule when it comes to early-career performance foreshadowing what’s to come, put up his best season as a Dolphin under Gase in his first year coaching the team in 2016. Tannehill averaged 6.27 ANYA and leading the team to an 8-5 record that season.
Here’s why Darnold probably won’t turn it around like Tannehill: Though Tannehill isn’t as talented as some franchise passers, he is lethal off play action, posting a 138.2 passer rating on play action passes since joining the Titans. Most passers see an increase in efficiency on play action passes, but Darnold has posted a 78.2 rating on 115 play action attempts since the start of last season, which is virtually the same as his career rating in all situations (79.2).